Nom de plume Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 26 minutes ago, snowman said: https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/opening-borders-dependent-on-uk-covid-rate-average/ 28 June I read that as there’s **** all HQ & Co can do if the U.K. fully opens up. Forget rates, that’s what’s happening. We follow, it’s that simple. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 Will the UK rate drop from 44 to 30 by 28 June???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trmpton Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 (edited) 5 minutes ago, snowman said: Will the UK rate drop from 44 to 30 by 28 June???? No, It will go up at a guess. Edited May 20, 2021 by trmpton Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madmanxpilot Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 20 minutes ago, Happier diner said: That's it then. Game over. Isolation and isolation. As an island and as individuals. Isle of man vs the rest of the world. No way 30/100,000 will happen for months if not years unless there is a miracle Unless they accept that case rates are becoming less of an important indicator on potential health service demand (which is what the whole thing is about), and introduce some factoring for the administration and proven effect of the vaccines, you are 100% correct. Once the vulnerable groups are fully vaccinated, and as the vaccines are shown to be 90% effective against illness caused by infection, the 30/100K case rate target should perhaps become 270/100K. As we make our way to that point, the target rate can increase slowly. It beggars belief that this is not happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trmpton Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 1 minute ago, madmanxpilot said: Unless they accept that case rates are becoming less of an important indicator on potential health service demand (which is what the whole thing is about), and introduce some factoring for the administration and proven effect of the vaccines, you are 100% correct. Once the vulnerable groups are fully vaccinated, and as the vaccines are shown to be 90% effective against illness caused by infection, the 30/100K case rate target should perhaps become 270/100K. As we make our way to that point, the target rate can increase slowly. It beggars belief that this is not happening. Exactly. Isn't 30 a figure they plucked out of the air about a year ago? At a time when testing was completely different and there was no vaccine. It has been a shambles from day one but for the last 6 to 8 weeks it should have been pretty straightforward to give a realistic and clear plan which people could plan around and which would have allowed businesses to plan with confidence. As if is it is towards the end of May. I am due to be in UK next week, and am stressed to death that if they chicken out take a step backwards I will be left unable to do important work here when I get back. How are people supposed to arrange their lives? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 (edited) 13 minutes ago, trmpton said: No, It will go up at a guess. Then what happens to the border plan ? Does IOM open or not ? Does it ignore that metric ? Change the metric ? Edited May 20, 2021 by snowman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Wright Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, trmpton said: Exactly. Isn't 30 a figure they plucked out of the air about a year ago? At a time when testing was completely different and there was no vaccine. It has been a shambles from day one but for the last 6 to 8 weeks it should have been pretty straightforward to give a realistic and clear plan which people could plan around and which would have allowed businesses to plan with confidence. As if is it is towards the end of May. I am due to be in UK next week, and am stressed to death that if they chicken out take a step backwards I will be left unable to do important work here when I get back. How are people supposed to arrange their lives? The figure in 2020 was 20 per 100,000, but we expressed it 1 in 5000. I suspect the figure will be increased. And whilst I see the superficial attraction of the GSY regional traffic lights I’d rather we went for a UK or GB wide figure. anyway I’ve booked trips away until September/October 2022, including UK theatre and family and Spain, mainly via Dublin and Rosslare, with head scratching about the 90/180 implications. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trmpton Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 Just now, snowman said: Then what happens to the border plan ? Nobody knows because the government are incompetent. The "plan" is fully of caveats and "indicators" Anyone with a brain can see "cases" and the level of transmission which is an issue depends on a - the amount of testing. B - the levels of vaccinations. C - the number of people previously infected (especially young people, schools etc) I have zero confidence in them not seriously damaging the economy and lots of people mental health this summer just in order to be perceived to be "protecting the population. Bear in mind that is the same population that they keep telling us is the most protected in the world because of how amazing they are, yet apparently also one of the most risk averse Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madmanxpilot Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, trmpton said: Exactly. Isn't 30 a figure they plucked out of the air about a year ago? At a time when testing was completely different and there was no vaccine. As far as I can see, yes Just as people don't wear parachutes whenever they get on a plane these days, we really need to acknowledge the impact the vaccines are having on the risk of exposure to covid and change our protocols accordingly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happier diner Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 31 minutes ago, snowman said: Will the UK rate drop from 44 to 30 by 28 June???? Not a hope in hell Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barlow Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 11 hours ago, trmpton said: I have had it. No issues. Next It's ok everybody around the World, as you were in 2019. It's all ok. A chap called trmpton on Manx Forums in the Isle of Man had Covid-19 and had no issues. 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trmpton Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Barlow said: It's ok everybody around the World, as you were in 2019. It's all ok. A chap called trmpton on Manx Forums in the Isle of Man had Covid-19 and had no issues. Well, that is clearly not the case you muppet. People around the world should be individually worried based on their own risk profile. So, taking into account factors like: Their own age Their own health status Health service provisions where they live. If they have had a vaccine. What percentage of people around them have had a vaccine. What percentage of people around them have been previously infected. Their ability to take their own precautions. Etc etc. A 72 year old man with underlying health conditions crammed onto a bus with loads of other people in the middle of Delhi is in a completely different situation to Dave, the 52 year old accountant from FarmHill who cycles 100 miles a week, eats a healthy balanced diet, who works in a open plan well ventilated office and drives himself to work in his BMW while living just down the Road from Nobles and with pretty much immediate testing available to him if he feels unwell. Don't forget Dave and all his friends and people he interacts with have had at least one jab. This is MANXforums, discussing the situation on the Isle of Man. Do you get it? Edited May 20, 2021 by trmpton Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happier diner Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, trmpton said: Well, that is clearly not the case you muppet. People around the world should be individually worried based on their own risk profile. So, taking into account factors like: Their own age Their own health status Health service provisions where they live. If they have had a vaccine. What percentage of people around them have had a vaccine. What percentage of people around them have been previously infected. Their ability to take their own precautions. Etc etc. A 72 year old man with underlying health conditions crammed onto a bus with loads of other people in the middle of Delhi is in a completely different situation to Dave, the 52 year old accountant from FarmHill who cycles 100 miles a week, eats a healthy balanced diet, who works in a open plan well ventilated office and drives himself to work in his BMW while living just down the Road from Nobles and with pretty much immediate testing available to him if he feels unwell. Don't forget Dave and all his friends and people he interacts with have had at least one jab. This is MANXforums, discussing the situation on the Isle of Man. Do you get it? Hey trmpton, he's winding you up and you have taken the bait fella In Barnsley they call this 'pillocking'...apparently although sealioning seems to be the modern phrase Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trmpton Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 Just now, Happier diner said: Hey trmpton, he's winding you up and you have taken the bait fella In Barnsley they call this 'pillocking'...apparently although sealioning seems to be the modern phrase I am honestly not sure. I think some actually think that we are all doomed if a single case gets into the community. They seem completely unable to comprehend the fact that any remaining risk is diminishing every single day. Anyway. It is a week off so I am about to take my life in my hands and go all day drinking in busy pubs before risking my life of the big bad ferry to the land of doom and death next week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 1 hour ago, trmpton said: Exactly. Isn't 30 a figure they plucked out of the air about a year ago? At a time when testing was completely different and there was no vaccine. It has been a shambles from day one but for the last 6 to 8 weeks it should have been pretty straightforward to give a realistic and clear plan which people could plan around and which would have allowed businesses to plan with confidence. As if is it is towards the end of May. I am due to be in UK next week, and am stressed to death that if they chicken out take a step backwards I will be left unable to do important work here when I get back. How are people supposed to arrange their lives? The figures of 30 in 100k were copied from Guernsey as usual, however they let others in not just families like IOM decided to impose. Suppose it’s the Manx solutions crap!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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