IOM Covid removing restrictions

[P.K.]

23 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

 

Its been made into an impossible target

I have extended the dates (backwards) and the scale (so its less spikey). Added the target. I think it bottomed out around 7th May (43.3) and is now rising (albeit very gradually). No sign of convergence.

Because of the Indian Variant (so-called because apparently it comes from India) case rates in places like Bolton have doubled.

Hopefully with surge testing and mass local vaccination the trend will start going down again.

But as it takes about 3 weeks for people vaccinated to reach max protection it won't be for a while yet.

[P.K.]

10 minutes ago, wrighty said:

All the data there.  Interesting that in April, all other causes of death are lower than the 5 year average, quite significantly so.  Perhaps the expected deaths in these categories happened a few months previously due to covid?

Interesting data. Thanks.

Apparently the large decrease in flu deaths is due to social distancing and face coverings.

[Banker]

14 minutes ago, P.K. said:

Interesting data. Thanks.

Apparently the large decrease in flu deaths is due to social distancing and face coverings.

If anyone else had quoted that data you would have immediately trolled them, demanding to know what’s acceptable death rates, hospital overwhelmed etc etc

[littlebushy]

26 minutes ago, wrighty said:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/monthlymortalityanalysisenglandandwales/april2021

All the data there.  Interesting that in April, all other causes of death are lower than the 5 year average, quite significantly so.  Perhaps the expected deaths in these categories happened a few months previously due to covid?

Numbers were low last summer too in the UK.  This year we have the vaccine.  I honestly think it's now, at least in the UK and here where we're well along the vaccine pathway, going to be like flu.  Even when there are spikes due to variants.  We'll have vaccine boosters to cover variants of concern ahead of the expected winter spikes, but apart from that just get on with it.  I don't see that reporting 7 deaths on the ten o'clock news each night helps anything apart from increasing coviphobia.

More likely, people with these conditions were scared and stayed way from hospital and avoided being nobbled by modern medicine?

[Cambon]

3 hours ago, trmpton said:

Nobody knows because the government are incompetent.

The "plan" is fully of caveats and "indicators"

Anyone with a brain can see "cases" and the level of transmission which is an issue depends on a - the amount of testing. B - the levels of vaccinations. C - the number of people previously infected (especially young people, schools etc)

I have zero confidence in them not seriously damaging the economy and lots of people mental health this summer just in order to be perceived to be "protecting the population.

Bear in mind that is the same population that they keep telling us is the most protected in the world because of how amazing they are, yet apparently also one of the most risk averse 

As I have said before, the uk government upped the second jab rate nearly a month ago now and 40% of adults are now double jabbed. We were at about 25% at the beginning of this week. 12 weeks gap was always a big mistake. We are now playing catch up. You are not vaccinated until two weeks after your second jab.

Regarding the 30/100k, I agree it is low. Maybe it should be 50/100k like Jersey. However, with the uk rate rising quite swiftly, when it hits 50/100k, what will Jersey do? Another issue is that the CIs travel routes are generally southern uk. Ours are north west which is now the Covid hotspot. 

Given that information, it would be prudent to postpone the end of June date to mid/late July, for the following reasons, and more.

1, Get more second jabs in arms.

2, Get the Indian variant under control.

3, Finish the school year without having to close schools, isolate classes, possibly even another lockdown if it gets out of control.

4, Family tourism does not start until the end of July / beginning of August.

Case numbers have always been the important factor, not hospitalisation or death. Hospitalisation and death are results of new cases. 

From Monday, local people, like yourself, can already travel to the uk relatively fuss free. We don't need tourism just yet. 

[winnie]

2 minutes ago, Cambon said:

As I have said before, the uk government upped the second jab rate nearly a month ago now and 40% of adults are now double jabbed. We were at about 25% at the beginning of this week. 12 weeks gap was always a big mistake. We are now playing catch up. You are not vaccinated until two weeks after your second jab.

Regarding the 30/100k, I agree it is low. Maybe it should be 50/100k like Jersey. However, with the uk rate rising quite swiftly, when it hits 50/100k, what will Jersey do? Another issue is that the CIs travel routes are generally southern uk. Ours are north west which is now the Covid hotspot. 

Given that information, it would be prudent to postpone the end of June date to mid/late July, for the following reasons, and more.

1, Get more second jabs in arms.

2, Get the Indian variant under control.

3, Finish the school year without having to close schools, isolate classes, possibly even another lockdown if it gets out of control.

4, Family tourism does not start until the end of July / beginning of August.

Case numbers have always been the important factor, not hospitalisation or death. Hospitalisation and death are results of new cases. 

From Monday, local people, like yourself, can already travel to the uk relatively fuss free. We don't need tourism just yet. 

1. All of the vulnerable have been jabbed. Below 40 years old are not vulnerable at all

2. And what about the Italian, or the African, or the Canadian or the Japanese variant?? The virus will keep mutating

3. Children are not vulnerable. Perhaps all teachers should be jabbed.

4. Families need confidence to book ferry's and accomodation

The Island will never ever open up if it keeps trying to find excuses. The uk death rate is 20% below the average, yes 20%!!!!. Get the bloody borders open asap and get on with life, or stay in your house and shut the windows!!

[Banker]

8 minutes ago, Cambon said:

As I have said before, the uk government upped the second jab rate nearly a month ago now and 40% of adults are now double jabbed. We were at about 25% at the beginning of this week. 12 weeks gap was always a big mistake. We are now playing catch up. You are not vaccinated until two weeks after your second jab.

Regarding the 30/100k, I agree it is low. Maybe it should be 50/100k like Jersey. However, with the uk rate rising quite swiftly, when it hits 50/100k, what will Jersey do? Another issue is that the CIs travel routes are generally southern uk. Ours are north west which is now the Covid hotspot. 

Given that information, it would be prudent to postpone the end of June date to mid/late July, for the following reasons, and more.

1, Get more second jabs in arms.

2, Get the Indian variant under control.

3, Finish the school year without having to close schools, isolate classes, possibly even another lockdown if it gets out of control.

4, Family tourism does not start until the end of July / beginning of August.

Case numbers have always been the important factor, not hospitalisation or death. Hospitalisation and death are results of new cases. 

From Monday, local people, like yourself, can already travel to the uk relatively fuss free. We don't need tourism just yet. 

Says someone who’s going in bunker at end June & doesn’t work in hospitality, family tourism in Scotland, Ireland starts beginning July. Lots of families with young children go on holidays early July, you don’t have a clue!

[Nom de plume]

At what point is herd immunity reached?

[trmpton]

Just now, Nom de plume said:

At what point is herd immunity reached?

A week last Tuesday

[P.K.]

33 minutes ago, Banker said:

If anyone else had quoted that data you would have immediately trolled them, demanding to know what’s acceptable death rates, hospital overwhelmed etc etc

Wrighty doesn't unreasonably bang on day after day moaning about the travel restrictions.

You don't suppose that's got anything to do with it do you?

[P.K.]

16 minutes ago, Cambon said:

As I have said before, the uk government upped the second jab rate nearly a month ago now and 40% of adults are now double jabbed. We were at about 25% at the beginning of this week. 12 weeks gap was always a big mistake. We are now playing catch up. You are not vaccinated until two weeks after your second jab.

Regarding the 30/100k, I agree it is low. Maybe it should be 50/100k like Jersey. However, with the uk rate rising quite swiftly, when it hits 50/100k, what will Jersey do? Another issue is that the CIs travel routes are generally southern uk. Ours are north west which is now the Covid hotspot. 

Given that information, it would be prudent to postpone the end of June date to mid/late July, for the following reasons, and more.

1, Get more second jabs in arms.

2, Get the Indian variant under control.

3, Finish the school year without having to close schools, isolate classes, possibly even another lockdown if it gets out of control.

4, Family tourism does not start until the end of July / beginning of August.

Case numbers have always been the important factor, not hospitalisation or death. Hospitalisation and death are results of new cases. 

From Monday, local people, like yourself, can already travel to the uk relatively fuss free. We don't need tourism just yet. 

All far too sensible for here I'm afraid...

[wrighty]

6 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

At what point is herd immunity reached?

Depends on what you think the R number is, and how effective the vaccine is at preventing transmission.  Somewhere between already achieved and never going to happen.  Seriously.

[madmanxpilot]

15 minutes ago, Cambon said:

Case numbers have always been the important factor, not hospitalisation or death. Hospitalisation and death are results of new cases. 

 

But - and it's a massive but - the ratio of cases to hospitalisations has reduced massively since the vaccines have started having an effect. 

So, reliance simply on case rates to assess likely demand on the health service is fundamentaly flawed. There can be no question about that.

[P.K.]

4 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

At what point is herd immunity reached?

When there are enough immune folks to prevent the spread.

So I guess it depends on how contagious the dominant variant is.

Apparently the Indian variant B.1.617.2 is the most contagious so far. But how they actually do the herd immunity calculation I have absolutely no idea.

[John Wright]

3 minutes ago, madmanxpilot said:

But - and it's a massive but - the ratio of cases to hospitalisations has reduced massively since the vaccines have started having an effect. 

So, reliance simply on case rates to assess likely demand on the health service is fundamentaly flawed. There can be no question about that.

But that’s not what they’re using the 30/100,000/14 days to assess.