IOM Covid removing restrictions

[b4mbi]

13 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

At what point is herd immunity reached?

I haven't herd.

[P.K.]

15 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

At what point is herd immunity reached?

When there are enough immune folks to prevent the spread.

So I guess it depends on how contagious the dominant variant is.

Apparently the Indian variant B.1.617.2 is the most contagious so far. But how they actually do the herd immunity calculation I have absolutely no idea.

Hmmm

https://plus.maths.org/content/maths-minute-r0-and-herd-immunity

[Cambon]

14 minutes ago, winnie said:

1. All of the vulnerable have been jabbed. Below 40 years old are not vulnerable at all

2. And what about the Italian, or the African, or the Canadian or the Japanese variant?? The virus will keep mutating

3. Children are not vulnerable. Perhaps all teachers should be jabbed.

4. Families need confidence to book ferry's and accomodation

The Island will never ever open up if it keeps trying to find excuses. The uk death rate is 20% below the average, yes 20%!!!!. Get the bloody borders open asap and get on with life, or stay in your house and shut the windows!!

1, Due to cockups in the vaccination schedule, we have over seventies with health conditions awaiting their second jab, while 18 years olds have had their first and promise of second after 8 weeks.

2, What about them? Once we are all 2 jabs plus 2 weeks, bring them on!

3, Correct, children are not seen as vulnerable, but their parents and grand parents may be.

4, Agreed. So set a realistic date that can be met rather than keep everyone in suspense. 

What everyone really wants is a degree of certainty. We don't have that with end of June. Had we stuck to the original vaccination schedule, all vulnerable would be fully vaccinated by now and we could open up today. That has been the government's biggest mistake.

[madmanxpilot]

1 hour ago, wrighty said:

Covid was the 9th leading cause of death in England in April, representing 2.4% of all registrations.  Heart disease was the top, followed by dementia.  We don't see graphs on those on the news every night.  I think it's about time the national focus was shifted a bit.

We can all agree that covid has been held in abeyance social restrictions. The eight causes of mortality ranked higher than covid will have (to a large extent) have been unaffected by such mitigations. If Covid had been left to run it's course, I suspect it would have been at the top of the league table. Treatment for other conditions would have been much restricted too.

The vaccines have put us in a different place now though.

[Cambon]

20 minutes ago, Banker said:

Says someone who’s going in bunker at end June & doesn’t work in hospitality, family tourism in Scotland, Ireland starts beginning July. Lots of families with young children go on holidays early July, you don’t have a clue!

Good luck to them. Their vaccination program is now a month ahead of ours. 

[Cambon]

19 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

At what point is herd immunity reached?

60% of adults having had second jab, apparently.

[wrighty]

4 minutes ago, P.K. said:

 But how they actually do the herd immunity calculation I have absolutely no idea.

1-1/R is the basic form, which gives you the proportion of the population that need to be unsusceptible to infection/unable to transmit infection (i.e completely immune).  So if R is 3, you need two-thirds immune.  Higher the R, the higher the proportion.  Gets a bit more complex when you take into account imperfect vaccine efficacy, but not much.  Roughly speaking, if your vaccines are only 90% effective you need 10% extra vaccinated (I know that's mathematically imprecise - just for illustration)

[madmanxpilot]

4 minutes ago, John Wright said:

But that’s not what they’re using the 30/100,000/14 days to assess. 

But it is.

Borders will only relax when they think the risk of Covid being imported is acceptable. By acceptable, they mean not likely to overload the health service.

They have set that trigger points at 30/100K.

[John Wright]

Just now, madmanxpilot said:

But it is.

Borders will only relax when they think the risk of Covid being imported is acceptable. By acceptable, they mean not likely to overload the health service.

They have set that trigger points at 30/100K.

Not quite. It’s a border control over risk of importation. That rate has no direct relevance to what we then do to protect hospitals, if it gets here. So it’s not used for that purpose. We use different measures internally, if the virus gets here, to protect the spread and hospitals being overwhelmed. Yes they’re connected. But not necessarily directly.

Im not sure if the figure should be 20 ( where we started last year ) or 30,40, 50. And I’ve no idea what the UK rates will move to. The UK wide 14 day rate hasn’t moved up much. Just in small areas in south east, north west and NI.

[Banker]

As no briefing today can we assume next easing of borders on Monday is proceeding? Howard implied on Monday he would hold a briefing if any changes 

[trmpton]

29 minutes ago, madmanxpilot said:

We can all agree that covid has been held in abeyance social restrictions. The eight causes of mortality ranked higher than covid will have (to a large extent) have been unaffected by such mitigations. If Covid had been left to run it's course, I suspect it would have been at the top of the league table. Treatment for other conditions would have been much restricted too.

The vaccines have put us in a different place now though.

If COVID had been left to run its cause more people would have died, more people would have natural immunity, and we would be back to normal by now with it having very little impact on our lives.

Last year would have been brutal though for the elderly and vulnerable

[madmanxpilot]

4 minutes ago, John Wright said:

Not quite. It’s a border control over risk of importation. That rate has no direct relevance to what we then do to protect hospitals, if it gets here. So it’s not used for that purpose. We use different measures internally, if the virus gets here, to protect the spread and hospitals being overwhelmed. Yes they’re connected. But not necessarily directly.

Im not sure if the figure should be 20 ( where we started last year ) or 30,40, 50. And I’ve no idea what the UK rates will move to. The UK wide 14 day rate hasn’t moved up much. Just in small areas in south east, north west and NI.

The UK infection rate will likely rocket in the coming weeks as people start to mix. But does it matter as much now as it would have before vaccines were in the arms of the majority of the population? No.

Thanks to the vaccines we are now far more able to deal with Covid. The IOMG's fixation on a 30/100K 14 case notification rate does not account for that, and will see us stay at level 2A for a very long time, certainly into next year. 

 

[madmanxpilot]

17 minutes ago, trmpton said:

If COVID had been left to run its cause more people would have died, more people would have natural immunity, and we would be back to normal by now with it having very little impact on our lives.

Last year would have been brutal though for the elderly and vulnerable

Perhaps - but it wouldn't have just been Covid patients who died. Many (young and old) requiring critical care for other conditions would have had that care compromised too.

[madmanxpilot]

23 minutes ago, Banker said:

As no briefing today can we assume next easing of borders on Monday is proceeding? Howard implied on Monday he would hold a briefing if any changes 

It was stated, not implied. We should hear something today.

[Happier diner]

57 minutes ago, John Wright said:

But that’s not what they’re using the 30/100,000/14 days to assess. 

if they/we keep listening to folks like you are lives are effectively over. Its not going to get better. Surely even you can see that.

They need to press on with vaccinations and let people make their own decisions. Closing borders should be in state of emergencies, something that does not exist here nor in the United Kingdom at this moment in time.

Please don't call me a buffoon. I am not one. I was merely pointing out the conflicting messages we are getting. I suggest you listen to DAs interview last week