IOM Covid removing restrictions

[P.K.]

1 hour ago, wrighty said:

Really? The modelling I've seen from that group has R much higher for the Kent variant.  If India is higher still it should be way more than that.  Are they talking about R0, or the effective R given the estimated immunity we already have?

Unfortunately every time I tried to copy the link it just tried to download the pdf again!

 

S1237_SPI-M-O_Consensus_Statement.pdf

[Happier diner]

2 minutes ago, John Wright said:

You’re confusing two things. Keeping the virus out and what we do when it gets in.

I see - it’s OK for you to describe others as buffoons, but you don’t like it when it’s applied to you.

First principles, even with data and scientific advise, the levels set by politicians are artificial. You hope they get it right. So do they. 

Different people have different views on what is right, because it’s opinion not fact.

So, entry. Keep it out. You’re not advocating a free for all, are you? Not even Boris advocates that. Do you want entrants from red list countries, or even areas of UK with red level rates? I’m not saying stick at 30. I’m happy for it to move. But I can see the attraction of keeping a figure there, just in case. That’s responsible.

Next, internal restrictions and lock downs, if it gets here. They’re not predicated by the 30/100,000/14. They’re the thing that will protect the health service if it gets in and takes off.

im not a lock down at any costs adherent. I’m not panicking. Not my way.

but you’re a open at any cost adherent. And you’ve no evidence at all. You want to run before you walk.

Im suggesting that there are two things here, with different triggers and data sets. That’s logical, makes sense.

We can see what complacency and taking the eye of the ball is doing to Taiwan and Singapore. That highlights the points I’m making.

That's a long one

I'm not for open up free for all but what we expect and deserve is clear, definate but most importantly achievable levels at which things will happen. Not the inconsistent message we are getting.

I think we will have to realise that if we have an open border with the UK (but not beyond and in accordance with UK traffic light system) then we might have to accept some restrictions to our freedom here as cases rise and fall and of course if hospitalisations increase worryingly. You are of course correct that we cant be complacent.

My anger and frustration is around HQ going to press and causing confusion. Perhaps buffoon was a bit harsh and made me one by saying it

[Happier diner]

5 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

Those who are loudly announcing that everyone who is vulnerable has been vaccinated should stop and consider that they are currently concentrating on vaccinating with their second dose Cohort 4 "70-74 years of age.  Clinically extremely vulnerable individuals".  And of course maximum immunity won't be till a few weeks after this.

In actual fact about a third of this group are under 65 and so will be vulnerable (and there will be more in the older group as well.  They won't be included but there may be some who were assigned to the wrong group or entered up incorrectly on vaccination.  You se these data entry errors all the time - 1 or 2 vaccinations on a date a particular hub was closed for example.

Yes I totally agree.

[Roger Mexico]

2 hours ago, Happier diner said:

Why do you think our hospital would be overloaded by allowing free movement with a country whose hospitals are some considerable way from being overloaded.

Because by the time their hospitals are overloaded, the people who will be overloading our hospital next weeks will already be infected and there will be nothing we can do.

Of course the 14 day average is almost as bad for the same reason and we really need a decision making process that reacts much more quickly.  Maybe the new Advisory Group could be used, there's a lot of good people on it, but I can't see the Cabinet Office and CoMin giving up any power or wanting to react quickly, no matter how informed the advice.

[Happier diner]

1 minute ago, Roger Mexico said:

Because by the time their hospitals are overloaded, the people who will be overloading our hospital next weeks will already be infected and there will be nothing we can do.

Not sure I get that. If our border was open why would there be a delay?  Surely we would be in sync with them.

I get that our case rates could be more spiky as we don't have the aggregating effect of a large population 

Against that though we have the enormous advantage that we can shut up shop/have restrictions if that starts to happen.

[Utah 01]

I know it's behind the DT paywall but some of you might be able to access it.

From Chris Evan's 'editorial' summary this evening:

“Cock-up, not conspiracy”, goes the well-worn phrase, but is there something more sinister behind the Government’s repeated flip-flopping on everything from summer holidays to Christmas? Laura Dodsworth certainly thinks so. In her new book, she alleges that ministers have been using vast amounts of behavioural psychology to manipulate the public’s response to the pandemic. She tells Gordon Rayner all about it in this interview.'

We've been played all along - like sheeple to the shepherd's whistle apart from those of us that have been tone deaf.

[P.K.]

6 minutes ago, Utah 01 said:

I know it's behind the DT paywall but some of you might be able to access it.

From Chris Evan's 'editorial' summary this evening:

“Cock-up, not conspiracy”, goes the well-worn phrase, but is there something more sinister behind the Government’s repeated flip-flopping on everything from summer holidays to Christmas? Laura Dodsworth certainly thinks so. In her new book, she alleges that ministers have been using vast amounts of behavioural psychology to manipulate the public’s response to the pandemic. She tells Gordon Rayner all about it in this interview.'

We've been played all along - like sheeple to the shepherd's whistle apart from those of us that have been tone deaf.

But it's the Daily Telegraph.

Have to say I'm amazed they have a paywall...

After the referendum voted Leave the Barclay (then) brothers put it up for sale as it had served their purposes to get the UK out of the EU. That was in October 2019 but as it had degenerated so much due to it's slavish (to put it mildly!) editorial stance on brexit and the tories prior to the referendum it's now little more than a tabloid and thus remains unsold....

[snowman]

One would have expected some sort of news today !

Edited May 20, 2021 by snowman

[Cambon]

1 hour ago, trmpton said:

You still haven't quite grasped this have you?

There isn't a right and wrong answer, it is an overall strategy to bring both the chance of spread and the chance of becoming ill down.  That overall reduces our total risk.

If we had 2nd jabbed all the elderly (over 70 isn't elderly these days by the way, so we have really) then those peoples chances would be a bit less of ending up ill than if they only had one jab.  Which they all have unless they opted out.

If we had done that then lots more younger people would still be unjabbed.  Largely the younger people are more likely to catch and spread it but less likely to suffer as a result.

 Reducing their ability to spread the virus (which one jab does) also reduces the chances of the older people, who already have a high level of protection, becoming infected by it.

By giving everyone one jab not only does everyone have a level of protection, everyone is also less likely to be a spreader than if they weren't jabbed.  Overall there really isn't much difference in the risk profile to any of us between lots of double jabbed people and lots of unprotected, and the situation we have.

Actually, it seems I have a better grasp. In your opinion, 70 is still young. Covid does not agree, as virtually everyone who has been hospitalised or died has been over 60, with a fair few 50-59. Virtually nobody under 50. 

Therefore, those over 60 really do require the best possible protection. The 40-60 group need a bit of protection. Everyone else, not so much. No different to any flu vaccine, really. 

If it was about stopping spread, then everyone of all ages would be vaccinated.  

If we had stuck to original schedule, we could open up fully to uk next week. We would not have, but we could.

[Nom de plume]

The Indian variant is through to the quarter finals.

They will face either the newly promoted Malaysian variant or the particularly dangerous yet to be discovered Scandinavian variant.

The Indian variant’s performances against the Kent, Brazilian & highly fancied South African variant in the group stages were particularly impressive.

The WHO Variant World Cup final will be played in Bradford on July 3rd.

[Banker]

Still radio silence from Howard on borders changes, at for the course when people are booked to come Monday expecting minimal isolation!

[Happier diner]

1 hour ago, Nom de plume said:

The Indian variant is through to the quarter finals.

They will face either the newly promoted Malaysian variant or the particularly dangerous yet to be discovered Scandinavian variant.

The Indian variant’s performances against the Kent, Brazilian & highly fancied South African variant in the group stages were particularly impressive.

The WHO Variant World Cup final will be played in Bradford on July 3rd.

Just you wait until the Icelandic variant comes along with its thunderclap. 

Or the Barnsley variant....just like watching Brazil......ian variant.

Or even the Graham Taylor variant "do I not like that!"

[trmpton]

2 hours ago, Banker said:

Still radio silence from Howard on borders changes, at for the course when people are booked to come Monday expecting minimal isolation!

Was published about the same time, or before you posted.

Typically useless document though

https://covid19.gov.im/general-information/travel-advice/borders-framework/border-level-25-faqs/

[Itsmeee]

19 minutes ago, trmpton said:

Typically useless document though

Seems pretty comprehensive to me

[trmpton]

4 minutes ago, Itsmeee said:

Seems pretty comprehensive to me

No it is too vague.

If I come home on the boat on Saturday can I plan to be in work on Monday?

Maybe. Depends on what time your boat comes in, and how many people were on it, and other stuff that we aren't prepared to commit to.  We might not have even got you a test by then never mind a result.

Joke