Annoymouse Posted June 9, 2021 Share Posted June 9, 2021 34 minutes ago, Cambon said: Great! Guess where ALL of our arrivals come from! We're doomed! Depending on which side of the fence you sit on, it isn’t really an issue as people are only being tested on day on day 1 or 2 so they will be more likely to receive a negative test, even if due to the incubation period they would be more likely to test positive at say day 6 or 7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ham_N_Eggs Posted June 9, 2021 Share Posted June 9, 2021 3 hours ago, trmpton said: I posted hospitalisation for may this morning. It hasn’t changed despite the increase in cases. This week and next is when you'd expect to see hospitalisations rise; and they are (currently 1024) If they haven't gone up by next Friday to around 1500 to 2500 then they'll be very lucky. Feel free to come back then and gloat if they haven't and I for one will be very glad if they haven't because my friends and family have suffered enough. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trmpton Posted June 9, 2021 Share Posted June 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ham_N_Eggs said: This week and next is when you'd expect to see hospitalisations rise; and they are (currently 1024) If they haven't gone up by next Friday to around 1500 to 2500 then they'll be very lucky. Feel free to come back then and gloat if they haven't and I for one will be very glad if they haven't because my friends and family have suffered enough. Sigh. People in hospital with COVID (as in, those who test positive on admission for something else) will clearly go up as the prevalence of the virus in the population goes up. Deaths of people with COVID will also go up. Here is a clue. If 10 percent of the population are infected at any given time, then that is going to translate to roughly 10 percent of admissions testing positive. Doesnt mean those people wouldn’t have been in hospital anyway though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ham_N_Eggs Posted June 9, 2021 Share Posted June 9, 2021 1 hour ago, trmpton said: Doesnt mean those people wouldn’t have been in hospital anyway though. Sigh 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cambon Posted June 9, 2021 Share Posted June 9, 2021 1 hour ago, trmpton said: Sigh. People in hospital with COVID (as in, those who test positive on admission for something else) will clearly go up as the prevalence of the virus in the population goes up. Deaths of people with COVID will also go up. Here is a clue. If 10 percent of the population are infected at any given time, then that is going to translate to roughly 10 percent of admissions testing positive. Doesnt mean those people wouldn’t have been in hospital anyway though. So, new cases up 20% on yesterday. Expect hospitalisations to go up in 7-10 days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trmpton Posted June 9, 2021 Share Posted June 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, Cambon said: So, new cases up 20% on yesterday. Expect hospitalisations to go up in 7-10 days. And? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madmanxpilot Posted June 9, 2021 Share Posted June 9, 2021 1 hour ago, trmpton said: Sigh. People in hospital with COVID (as in, those who test positive on admission for something else) will clearly go up as the prevalence of the virus in the population goes up. Deaths of people with COVID will also go up. Here is a clue. If 10 percent of the population are infected at any given time, then that is going to translate to roughly 10 percent of admissions testing positive. Doesnt mean those people wouldn’t have been in hospital anyway though. Not quite. A pre admission negative Covid test is required for all non emergency admissions. I think it would be eminently sensible to give the vaccine rollout a further few weeks head start before fully unlocking. The second dose seems critical in preventing morbidity. Figures last week seemed to show you were 70% less likely to need hospitalisation after one jab, but 95% after both. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trmpton Posted June 9, 2021 Share Posted June 9, 2021 23 minutes ago, Ham_N_Eggs said: Sigh What? You know most of the people in hospital just happen to have tested positive for COVID and would be there anyway. The Scottish government even commented that the increase in kids in hospital “with COVID” was because they are now out playing and doing sport again, so ending up in hospital with broken arms, testing positive (which doesn’t matter) and so showing in the figures as covid patients. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-57344826?fbclid=IwAR3BU8Jq-u7FyriZobP9M-GB0yxgsY2QCzV47skHZ3vUVfOIlaMagPhENVU “It's worth noting that these admissions are not necessarily to treat Covid-related illness. A child might be admitted to hospital with a broken arm, but will be recorded in the figures if they test positive for Covid.” Cases are going to go up. Hospital admissions are going to go up. IT DOESNT MATTER like it did 6 or 12 months ago 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trmpton Posted June 9, 2021 Share Posted June 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, madmanxpilot said: Not quite. A pre admission negative Covid test is required for all non emergency admissions. I think it would be eminently sensible to give the vaccine rollout a further few weeks head start before fully unlocking. The second dose seems critical in preventing morbidity. Figures last week seemed to show you were 70% less likely to need hospitalisation after one jab, but 95% after both. Wrong ”It's worth noting that these admissions are not necessarily to treat Covid-related illness. A child might be admitted to hospital with a broken arm, but will be recorded in the figures if they test positive for Covid.” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madmanxpilot Posted June 9, 2021 Share Posted June 9, 2021 (edited) 5 minutes ago, trmpton said: Wrong ”It's worth noting that these admissions are not necessarily to treat Covid-related illness. A child might be admitted to hospital with a broken arm, but will be recorded in the figures if they test positive for Covid.” Err - no it's not. In the UK, where the figures are coming from, you are required to have a covid test three days before admission to hospital for elective procedures and following that test continue to isolate. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/testing-for-coronavirus-before-hospital/supporting-guidance-for-pre-hospital-test-for-covid-19 A significant percentage of hospital admissions on any one day are for elective procedures. Yes, of course some kids will be in with broken arms - but as far as I know they've been playing out the whole time throughout the pandemic so that won't have changed much. Edited June 9, 2021 by madmanxpilot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madmanxpilot Posted June 9, 2021 Share Posted June 9, 2021 1 minute ago, madmanxpilot said: Err - no it's not. In the UK, where the figures are coming from, you are required to have a covid test three days before admission to hospital for elective procedures and following that test continue to isolate. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/testing-for-coronavirus-before-hospital/supporting-guidance-for-pre-hospital-test-for-covid-19 A significant percentage of hospital admissions on any one day are for elective procedures. Yes, of course some kids will be in with broken arms - but as far as I know they've been playing out the whole time throughout the pandemic so that won't have changed much. The only people with Covid in hospital will therefore be emergency admissions, or those admitted for Covid treatment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trmpton Posted June 9, 2021 Share Posted June 9, 2021 Just now, madmanxpilot said: Err - no it's not. In the UK, where the figures are coming from, you are required to have a covid test three days before admission to hospital for elective procedures and following that test continue to isolate. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/testing-for-coronavirus-before-hospital/supporting-guidance-for-pre-hospital-test-for-covid-19 A significant percentage of hospital admissions on any one day are for elective procedures. Yes, of course some kids will be in with broken arms - but as far as I know they've been playing out the whole time throughout the pandemic so that won't have changed much. We aren’t talking about elective procedures. People are using a rise in the number of people in hospital with COVID as an indicator that people are sick with COVID. They aren’t. As more people become infected (who cares?) and more people are back out living their normal lives there will be more people ending up in hospital for non planned reasons who test positive on admission. Hardly rocket science. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ham_N_Eggs Posted June 9, 2021 Share Posted June 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, trmpton said: The Scottish government even commented that the increase in kids in hospital “with COVID” was because they are now out playing and doing sport again, so ending up in hospital with broken arms, testing positive (which doesn’t matter) and so showing in the figures as covid patients. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-57344826?fbclid=IwAR3BU8Jq-u7FyriZobP9M-GB0yxgsY2QCzV47skHZ3vUVfOIlaMagPhENVU Sigh. No they didn't. This: “It's worth noting that these admissions are not necessarily to treat Covid-related illness. A child might be admitted to hospital with a broken arm, but will be recorded in the figures if they test positive for Covid." is the opinion of the journalist / editor not the Scottish Government. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daisy Posted June 9, 2021 Share Posted June 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, trmpton said: What? You know most of the people in hospital just happen to have tested positive for COVID and would be there anyway. The Scottish government even commented that the increase in kids in hospital “with COVID” was because they are now out playing and doing sport again, so ending up in hospital with broken arms, testing positive (which doesn’t matter) and so showing in the figures as covid patients. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-57344826?fbclid=IwAR3BU8Jq-u7FyriZobP9M-GB0yxgsY2QCzV47skHZ3vUVfOIlaMagPhENVU “It's worth noting that these admissions are not necessarily to treat Covid-related illness. A child might be admitted to hospital with a broken arm, but will be recorded in the figures if they test positive for Covid.” Cases are going to go up. Hospital admissions are going to go up. IT DOESNT MATTER like it did 6 or 12 months ago I am so re-assured that you know the medical history of all of the people in hospital!!. And of course Governments are always open and transparent! Regardless though I think at the moment it does matter that people are testing positive even if not the primary cause for admission - If we were a couple of weeks further down the line with the vaccine programme I couldn't disagree ... but we are not. For the sake of completing the vaccination programme as best we can we need to become vigilant ... we have become complacent again and we should be aware of numbers and spread so that we can react and mitigate accordingly so we are in the best place to have our borders open as safely as possible. 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted June 9, 2021 Share Posted June 9, 2021 17 minutes ago, trmpton said: IT DOESNT MATTER like it did 6 or 12 months ago It matters a lot if you're desperate to get re-elected.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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