IOM Covid removing restrictions

[rachomics]

1 hour ago, Andy Onchan said:

The stats would suggest that we're all more at risk of death from flu and pneumonia than COVID. I sincerely hope that the EAG are looking at these numbers because if not then we won't be opening up until this time next year.

What happened to the data mantra??

It's important to note that the EAG don't make any decisions. We get asked for advice, we provide it, but CoMIN can decide to listen to it, or not, as they see fit and then THEY make decisions. That's what you elected them to do.

It's also worth noting that we're reliant on our own ability to research information; we're not sent briefings or data, supported by entire government departments like politicians are. We're almost all in full-time employment in rather time-consuming jobs and don't get paid for providing advice. 

[Apple]

7 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

You still can't get close to the 'why'. 

This virus is clever, more clever than Boris and Howard. It has, and will continue to outwit both of them, and most of us. It is trying to nail down smoke at the moment.

It is largely unpredictable and can be considered as fighting for it's life. As more and more people get vaccinated it will try and choose other ways to survive (only for the time being as it will become dormant eventually anyway).

The cost of the virus has been high, too high in many cases, and still will be economically globally for some time to come.

Colleagues in hospital in Manchester are very concerned at the rate of admissions in the region due to Covid. Their advice to me - whatever you do, do not let this variant get on the island. The impact will be very difficult to deal with if it does. (I left out their expleteives ).

I hope the financial help from Government though is going to the right people. (Not according to the press JD Sports, or any business recieving help from Government that then pays out huge dividends and bonuses)

[Apple]

4 minutes ago, rachomics said:

That's what you elected them to do.

Can we take that bit back and put the EAG in charge for a bit please. ?

Edited June 14, 2021 by Apple
question mark, before someone complains.

[Itsmeee]

So in spite of having spent the last nearly 18 months virtual prisoners, unable to see family without a lot of (for many people) impossible self isolation and time off work , in some cases unable to attend family funerals, sacrificing an awful lot, having two doses of a vaccine, we are still not free.  I am usually quite optimistic and positive, but I am beginning to despair that this will never end.  

[Apple]

@Itsmeee.No, don't despair. 

We have reduced the potentially cataclysmic impact of this virus and lots has been achieved, not least our knowledge of virology, genomics and the development of better medications for cancers etc.  @rachomics ( to advise please if you have time.)

It will end. And we may be better prepared if this or something else happens again.

I read somewhere that following outbreaks such as this the biggest lessons were about having first class health and social care systems and the improvements to public health that can arise from those systems.

We have to make sure that the benefits of the future for all people now outweigh the costs and tragedies we have all endured. 

 

[Andy Onchan]

13 minutes ago, rachomics said:

It's important to note that the EAG don't make any decisions. We get asked for advice, we provide it, but CoMIN can decide to listen to it, or not, as they see fit and then THEY make decisions. That's what you elected them to do.

It's also worth noting that we're reliant on our own ability to research information; we're not sent briefings or data, supported by entire government departments like politicians are. We're almost all in full-time employment in rather time-consuming jobs and don't get paid for providing advice. 

That was the whole reason for my post because it very much looks like government/politicians haven't really moved from elimination to mitigation yet. The numbers speak for themselves. As it stands at the moment they should be as equally concerned about the flu/pneumonia stats as COVID.

[Fluffy123]

1 hour ago, AlanShimmin said:

Stop looking at graphs and models. 

Look at real life examples. When Israel opened up they had fewer people fully vaccinated than the UK currently has. 

Israel had a tiny increase in cases and virtually no increase in hospitalizations or deaths. 

But they didn’t have the Delta Varient. 

[The Chief]

from the BBC

"On Monday, the UK has recorded 7,742 new cases of Covid-19 and three deaths within 28 days of a positive test."

the case numbers are up the deaths are not, this is the basis of the delay, hardly sounds like a cataclysmic 14th wave does it.

Boris and his cronies want the summer ruined so the UK can't spend its money in the hated EU. 21st July i would be shocked if there is not another reason to delay.

they are a joke and if our lot follow on, the will be just as much of a joke. 

[2112]

56 minutes ago, The Dog's Dangly Bits said:

It isn't stupid at all.

The problem is the obsession with case numbers.  Those numbers are not disappearing.   In a month what happens?  

So in the meantime you have more livelihoods ruined, more fall out for those people mentally (be that business owners or employees).   

You also have the issue of devolved responsibility.   Government don't really want to take responsibility.   So they devolve it to someone else.  In the IOMs case that is now the EAG.  The EAG won't want to take responsibility.   So they'll give the government the get out they need by bottling decisions to get back to normal.

I think what is even more concerning is that normal rational people are now conditioned into thinking there is some unpalatable risk, where there really isn't.

DDB at times comes up with a different perspective and plausible view only to spoil things by spoiling for a fight. 
 

The minority view of the EAG was for a 4-6 week pause before lifting border controls. This will take us well into August. Their arguments that this will give us time for second dose vaccination, Unfortunately whatever you do on this island, it’s guaranteed that Ashie will blame supply, or logistical issues and there will be another slowdown. By the time it comes up for review, there may be another variant, and we will keep repeating the cycle. In the meantime businesses which haven’t gone under will fold. The way things are going, there will be nothing to watch next year on Skellyvision, as the TT will be cancelled next year if this persists up to December. 

[trmpton]

43 minutes ago, rachomics said:

It's important to note that the EAG don't make any decisions. We get asked for advice, we provide it, but CoMIN can decide to listen to it, or not, as they see fit and then THEY make decisions. That's what you elected them to do.

It's also worth noting that we're reliant on our own ability to research information; we're not sent briefings or data, supported by entire government departments like politicians are. We're almost all in full-time employment in rather time-consuming jobs and don't get paid for providing advice. 

So.  Do you think we should delay opening the borders? Because I haven’t seen any data that would make me think we shouldn’t when you balance the possible impact on life against peoples ability to earn money

[The Dog's Dangly Bits]

50 minutes ago, rachomics said:

It's important to note that the EAG don't make any decisions. We get asked for advice, we provide it, but CoMIN can decide to listen to it, or not, as they see fit and then THEY make decisions. That's what you elected them to do.

It's also worth noting that we're reliant on our own ability to research information; we're not sent briefings or data, supported by entire government departments like politicians are. We're almost all in full-time employment in rather time-consuming jobs and don't get paid for providing advice. 

I dont think Andy is suggesting the EAG do make decisions.   But if you are going to recommend delaying the 28th June border opening then Andy's point is that this must have been done using some sort of info.  The data suggests there isn't a problem opening.

Edited June 14, 2021 by The Dog's Dangly Bits

[rachomics]

5 minutes ago, 2112 said:

DDB at times comes up with a different perspective and plausible view only to spoil things by spoiling for a fight. 
 

The minority view of the EAG was for a 4-6 week pause before lifting border controls. This will take us well into August. Their arguments that this will give us time for second dose vaccination, Unfortunately whatever you do on this island, it’s guaranteed that Ashie will blame supply, or logistical issues and there will be another slowdown. By the time it comes up for review, there may be another variant, and we will keep repeating the cycle. In the meantime businesses which haven’t gone under will fold. The way things are going, there will be nothing to watch next year on Skellyvision, as the TT will be cancelled next year if this persists up to December. 

That "minority view" was one person on the EAG, not me, who would have happily had us into lockdown given half the chance. Needless to say, that's why it was a "minority view". The rest of us disagreed with it.

[AlanShimmin]

13 minutes ago, Fluffy123 said:

But they didn’t have the Delta Varient. 

Yes they did.

[AlanShimmin]

Just now, rachomics said:

That "minority view" was one person on the EAG, not me, who would have happily had us into lockdown given half the chance. Needless to say, that's why it was a "minority view". The rest of us disagreed with it.

Name and shame.

[rachomics]

Just now, AlanShimmin said:

Yes they did.

Actually, no, the Israeli's didn't have the Delta variant.