IOM Covid removing restrictions

[TheTeapot]

Here you go, go ask your questions direct 

[TheTeapot]

How can anyone resist?

[thommo2010]

5 hours ago, slinkydevil said:

Are we supposed to start drinking now? I think we are, but I haven't heard the starting claxon yet. 

Supposed to start drinking yesterday man

[Banker]

1 hour ago, Cambon said:

We will get 5B equivalent once the schools are back. As the Guernsey press release says their introduction of 5C could be months away. They won't even receive the equipment for another month. It then has to be installed, set up and tested. Looks like the mooted October won't even happen . 

But at least they have a plan and have implemented it with time scale for next phase to be decided 

[Filippo]

On 8/26/2020 at 11:08 PM, Neil Down said:

If you think elsewhere are handling it a lot better then feel free to move to said utopia

 

On 8/27/2020 at 12:00 PM, winnie said:

Get the bloody borders open and start testing on arrival FFS. The average deaths in uk are 10 per day. How bloody low does it have to go FFS. Getting a bit pissed off with this now.

 

On 8/27/2020 at 12:05 PM, Nom de plume said:

A lot to consider with business travel, hospitality, University students, family, sporting clubs etc all having their circumstances impinged on the back of the likelihood of zero hospital admissions if we were to open up & test properly. The penny is dropping for many, aside the work shy, stay at home sorts (and those seeking re-election).

 

On 8/27/2020 at 11:52 AM, Banker said:

I don’t think these type of decisions on airlines and borders should be left to a small cabal holding unpublished discussions. In Guernsey the whole elected parliament were involved in discussing the next change to borders control and IOM should be recalling tynwald to do the same 

 

On 8/27/2020 at 12:08 PM, Max Power said:

It's all down to fear now! Who is going to make the decisions on something we don't fully understand? The world is running scared, most probably pushed along by a population which has been bred to be risk averse? We all knew it would backfire on us one day, and here we are!

 

On 8/27/2020 at 12:47 PM, Out of the blue said:

Your last point is the most relevant. They will lose a lot less votes by continuing with their cautious baby steps. Don't expect too much over the next through weeks. 

 

On 8/27/2020 at 1:06 PM, NoTailT said:

It is ignorant of Comin. The fact is that the border policy is the problem not only for air services, but our wider economy.

 

On 8/27/2020 at 1:26 PM, Blackajah said:

Those seeking re-election.   Well, that's the issue isn't it?   Too terrified of the paranoid and the hysterical social media Hitlers to even consider an alternative border policy to 'keep em out'.  As has been said before, when did we move from protecting hospital resources to 'noone must get covid - ever?'    God forbid anyone is removed from the trough for actually making a decision!   

 

23 hours ago, Nom de plume said:

Jersey now at 76,000 people tested & not a sausage in the hospital. Meanwhile in the land that time forgot we’re scratching around trying to do airline deals with a carrier who can’t even service their existing routes because one of its staff is off sick. Jesus f***ing wept.

 

2 hours ago, Cambon said:

We will get 5B equivalent once the schools are back. As the Guernsey press release says their introduction of 5C could be months away. They won't even receive the equipment for another month. It then has to be installed, set up and tested. Looks like the mooted October won't even happen . 

 

On 8/26/2020 at 7:38 PM, dilligaf said:

Social  (so called ) media is the idiots platform. 20 arsehole post a load of shite and suddenly they are the majority and we should take note.

 

On 8/26/2020 at 8:29 PM, Cambon said:

So, ITV stating 3 new cases today, 4 new cases yesterday, 2 the day before, and so on are telling lies? Go onto Worldometers and click on Channel Islands scroll down. All the daily figures and data source is there. Notice the graph is on a steady rise. With regard to the Guernsey Press link posted, you obviously did not read it all. Dont call me a liar when you cannot be arsed to do your research properly.

 

On 8/27/2020 at 11:08 AM, Out of the blue said:

Business and I am sure for many others on the island, the attraction of our island lies not only in all of the obvious factors such as scenery, safety etc, but also the ability to travel whether it be for business or leisure. How we obtain that stability in timetables, service and fares does not really concern me, only that it exists. If we for example pay Loginair to provide key routes at set times and within price constraints that is fine, but in the new aviation environment airlines will come and go, and that is where backing a state owned airline for me trumps backing another flybe.

 

Noting that recent postings to this thread have been mostly focused on the border closure, I am reprising some arguments of a previous posting of mine and interpreting current UK statistics into the IOM context.

The Isle of Man is currently having circa 600 incoming travellers per week, or 85.71 per day. Also, current Covid-19 prevalence in the UK is about 1/2,200. The two figures imply that it takes 25.67 days for having one event of incoming Covid-19 carrier turning up to this isle; the result of this simple calculation: 1 / (85.71 / 2,200).

Assuming a 10% chance of a Covid-19 carrier escaping detection and restarting community transmission within the island, it would take about 25.67 / 10% = 256 days (8 months and 2 week) for the pandemic to restart in this isle. The 10% chance is a likely overestimation if proper testing and tracing were to be in place, in my opinion. This estimation would explain why we haven’t seen a sole Covid-19 case in months.

Another issue is what community transmission within the island would bring about in terms of casualties. In the UK, the seven-day moving average of Covid-19 fatalities has fallen to less than 8. Making the due proportion with the IOM population, the equivalent IOM fatality would be less than 4 deaths per year (85 / 66,650 x 8 x 365.25 = 3.72); or about one premature death per year, since 2/3 of Covid-19 deaths happen among those who are already so frail to have very little life expectancy ahead of them.

Thus, the border closure is now sparing us about one premature death per year: keep this in mind next time the IOM government circulates a disingenuous questionnaire bragging about the saving of hundreds of lives! And the Jersey case, which hasn’t had any Covid-19 hospitalisations in a while, shows that the border can be kept open with very little collateral damage. Flu and pneumonia kill many more, and cars accidents kill many more. Here is an excerpt of a recently interview with Oxford University’s Prof. Sunetra Gupta: what she says about New Zealand’s policies (“the self-righteous attitude is completely ridiculous”) is spot on as concerns this smaller island of ours and the pathetic duo of Ashford and Quayle.

Unfortunately the popular discourse (media, politicians, WHO etc) on Covid-19 has been reduced to a series of static dichotomies on illness, infectiousness, immunity, fatality, masks etc (I won’t elaborate here on the various misconceptions for the sake of brevity). In reality, Covid-19 exists as a continuum of manifestations. One can turn out “positive” on a test and have no discernible illness of any description on his/her body and pose very little risk of contagion. Covid-19 is mutating and differentiating rapidly; there are already hundreds of different strains. Its impact on human population is also evolving rapidly due to the build up of herd immunity and co-adaptation to the host.

My understanding of the current very low fatality rate in the UK, and in the other countries that had significant spread of the virus, is that there is already significant herd immunity and virus-host co-adaptation within those populations, enough to bring the so called pandemic to its natural conclusion. If the popular narrative were to be correct, precisely that 6.2% of UK population (1 in 16 people) have the antibodies and thus have survived the infection, and all the others (15 in 16 people) are still vulnerable to the virus; then, now that restrictions have mostly been lifted (apart from the political necessities such as the stupid masks, which have no effectiveness) the pandemic and its death trail should restart, no? Why people have stopped dying from it? And what the lockdown was for, since so little has changed (1 in 16 people only have been affected so far, apparently) and current restrictions are more than enough to extinguish hospitalisations and deaths?

In the end a vaccine of very limited long-term consequence will be given to the common herd for the purpose of restoring confidence, more than any real health benefit. Then, there will still be Covid-19 infections, as with the other cold-inducing coronaviruses we always had, but only few such infections will lead to serious illnesses, and the lockdown enthusiasts will proclaim that it is the vaccine that has done the trick. Quite unsurprisingly the moron-in-chief, a.k.a. the Trump administration, is pushing for approval of antibody-treatments and novel vaccines before any reliable effectiveness can be inferred from the studies in progress. Expect the UK to follow suit; Britons are so scared that something has to be done soon; bring the placebo.

Then there is the US stock market, the world’s most liquid and efficient. Since its strong April rebound it has been telling us that the virus is not as bad as initially feared; and with the current historical highs (in the midst of a US second wave killing 1K per day) it is telling us that a V shaped recovery is under way; and a V shaped recovery can only happen if concerns about Covid-19 go away in the near term. I normally keep 50-60% of my liquid assets into US stocks and bonds, and already had plenty of the secular grow stories within technology and health care. Back in March I also saw opportunities into some of the obvious stay-at-home stocks such as online supermarkets, pizza delivery and video game companies; and persuaded my colleagues to keep calm and carry on. Time will tell whether this is the stupidest of bull markets or the right call of the collective judgement of investors (I have been around long enough not to make strong assumptions about what asset prices are going to do). Nevertheless, the message from US equities exuberance is clear: the pandemic is going to end soon, even if only because people have had enough of all that pandemic’s paraphernalia of staying-at-home, social-distancing, quarantine, masks etc.
 

 

Edited August 28, 2020 by Filippo

[WTF]

8 hours ago, Cambon said:

He indicated he would address us at the end of August

his masters are still working on what they want him to tell us but it is proving very difficult to construct the message in words that fat howie has a chance of reading out correctly, apparently they can't do it with just single syllable words so some words with 2 syllables will have to be risked and they have an artist working on the picture clues to put above these linguistic nightmares.

[Uhtred]

8 hours ago, Cambon said:

He indicated he would address us at the end of August

In terms of the border controls perhaps they are simply relying on the not-given-very-much-prominence-at-all comment from Ashford on Tuesday that it’s ‘too early’ to make any revision to the level 4 designation.

[Nom de plume]

2 hours ago, Filippo said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Noting that recent postings to this thread have been mostly focused on the border closure, I am reprising some arguments of a previous posting of mine and interpreting current UK statistics into the IOM context.

The Isle of Man is currently having circa 600 incoming travellers per week, or 85.71 per day. Also, current Covid-19 prevalence in the UK is about 1/2,200. The two figures imply that it takes 25.67 days for having one event of incoming Covid-19 carrier turning up to this isle; the result of this simple calculation: 1 / (85.71 / 2,200).

Assuming a 10% chance of a Covid-19 carrier escaping detection and restarting community transmission within the island, it would take about 25.67 / 10% = 256 days (8 months and 2 week) for the pandemic to restart in this isle. The 10% chance is a likely overestimation if proper testing and tracing were to be in place, in my opinion. This estimation would explain why we haven’t seen a sole Covid-19 case in months.

Another issue is what community transmission within the island would bring about in terms of casualties. In the UK, the seven-day moving average of Covid-19 fatalities has fallen to less than 8. Making the due proportion with the IOM population, the equivalent IOM fatality would be less than 4 deaths per year (85 / 66,650 x 8 x 365.25 = 3.72); or about one premature death per year, since 2/3 of Covid-19 deaths happen among those who are already so frail to have very little life expectancy ahead of them.

Thus, the border closure is now sparing us about one premature death per year: keep this in mind next time the IOM government circulates a disingenuous questionnaire bragging about the saving of hundreds of lives! And the Jersey case, which hasn’t had any Covid-19 hospitalisations in a while, shows that the border can be kept open with very little collateral damage. Flu and pneumonia kill many more, and cars accidents kill many more. Here is an excerpt of a recently interview with Oxford University’s Prof. Sunetra Gupta: what she says about New Zealand’s policies (“the self-righteous attitude is completely ridiculous”) is spot on as concerns this smaller island of ours and the pathetic duo of Ashford and Quayle.

Unfortunately the popular discourse (media, politicians, WHO etc) on Covid-19 has been reduced to a series of static dichotomies on illness, infectiousness, immunity, fatality, masks etc (I won’t elaborate here on the various misconceptions for the sake of brevity). In reality, Covid-19 exists as a continuum of manifestations. One can turn out “positive” on a test and have no discernible illness of any description on his/her body and pose very little risk of contagion. Covid-19 is mutating and differentiating rapidly; there are already hundreds of different strains. Its impact on human population is also evolving rapidly due to the build up of herd immunity and co-adaptation to the host.

My understanding of the current very low fatality rate in the UK, and in the other countries that had significant spread of the virus, is that there is already significant herd immunity and virus-host co-adaptation within those populations, enough to bring the so called pandemic to its natural conclusion. If the popular narrative were to be correct, precisely that 6.2% of UK population (1 in 16 people) have the antibodies and thus have survived the infection, and all the others (15 in 16 people) are still vulnerable to the virus; then, now that restrictions have mostly been lifted (apart from the political necessities such as the stupid masks, which have no effectiveness) the pandemic and its death trail should restart, no? Why people have stopped dying from it? And what the lockdown was for, since so little has changed (1 in 16 people only have been affected so far, apparently) and current restrictions are more than enough to extinguish hospitalisations and deaths?

In the end a vaccine of very limited long-term consequence will be given to the common herd for the purpose of restoring confidence, more than any real health benefit. Then, there will still be Covid-19 infections, as with the other cold-inducing coronaviruses we always had, but only few such infections will lead to serious illnesses, and the lockdown enthusiasts will proclaim that it is the vaccine that has done the trick. Quite unsurprisingly the moron-in-chief, a.k.a. the Trump administration, is pushing for approval of antibody-treatments and novel vaccines before any reliable effectiveness can be inferred from the studies in progress. Expect the UK to follow suit; Britons are so scared that something has to be done soon; bring the placebo.

Then there is the US stock market, the world’s most liquid and efficient. Since its strong April rebound it has been telling us that the virus is not as bad as initially feared; and with the current historical highs (in the midst of a US second wave killing 1K per day) it is telling us that a V shaped recovery is under way; and a V shaped recovery can only happen if concerns about Covid-19 go away in the near term. I normally keep 50-60% of my liquid assets into US stocks and bonds, and already had plenty of the secular grow stories within technology and health care. Back in March I also saw opportunities into some of the obvious stay-at-home stocks such as online supermarkets, pizza delivery and video game companies; and persuaded my colleagues to keep calm and carry on. Time will tell whether this is the stupidest of bull markets or the right call of the collective judgement of investors (I have been around long enough not to make strong assumptions about what asset prices are going to do). Nevertheless, the message from US equities exuberance is clear: the pandemic is going to end soon, even if only because people have had enough of all that pandemic’s paraphernalia of staying-at-home, social-distancing, quarantine, masks etc.
 

 

What.

A.

Post.

Brilliant.

If.

Only.

You.

Were.

A.

Medical.

Expert.

And.

Advisor.

To.

CoMin.

[pongo]

49 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

If. Only. You. Were. A. Medical. Expert. And. Advisor. To. CoMin.

As opposed to a random internet lay-person. An anti-expert extrapolating conclusions from compounded guesses. The whole post layered with the implication of conspiracy and deceit and topped off with a classic stock-picker boast.

And that stock-picking boast is also full of holes. US markets are booming. I've said that myself. But only certain sectors. @Filippo more or less says that herself. Her boast contradicts her idea that the index price reflects confidence. Her argument makes no sense. A booming market based only on specific sectors is not a vote of confidence that this is over. It's support for certain sectors which are judged to be resilient to the current uncertainty. Or deemed to be able to survive this.

 

Edited August 28, 2020 by pongo

[dilligaf]

26 minutes ago, pongo said:

As opposed to a random internet lay-person. An anti-expert extrapolating conclusions from compounded guesses. The whole post layered with the implication of conspiracy and deceit and topped off with a classic stock-picker boast.

And that stock-picking boast is also full of holes. US markets are booming. I've said that myself. But only certain sectors. @Filippo more or less says that herself. Her boast contradicts her idea that the index price reflects confidence. Her argument makes no sense. A booming market based only on specific sectors is not a vote of confidence that this is over. It's support for certain sectors which are judged to be resilient to the current uncertainty. Or deemed to be able to survive this.

 

Me thinks " Filippo" could keep to his day job at the Care Home.

[ian rush]

Filippos extract re the selfishness of NZ relying on vacc and herd immunity elsewhere is in my unqualified view utter horseshit.

As if NZ wouldnt make vaccine available when it came on stream; theyre not going to wait for the world to eliminate by vaccine before re-opening without offer vacc to their citizens.

Herd immunity elsewhere? Is there such  immunity? This is closer to a cold than chickenpox as far as i can see so questionable that there is such a thing.

Finally swedens economic hit by people staying in despite limited forced closures was similar to other scandi countries. Except loads more dead. So people retract even if not forced if the virus has a certain level of prevalence.

Borders being shut is painful but we cant print money and so keeping economy's main bits running as much as possible with minimised risk of reintroduction seems like best of a bad job. There's no big fucking money tree and so this seems best of a bad job pending working vaccination.

[pongo]

100% agree @ian rush. Apart from - we are part of a Sterling zone which absolutely can print money. The practical logistics of getting that liquidity into our hyper local bit of the British economy is clearly a technical issue. But we are part of an economy which basically can create liquidity (ie create elastic money).

[Anyone]

1 hour ago, pongo said:

As opposed to a random internet lay-person. An anti-expert extrapolating conclusions from compounded guesses. The whole post layered with the implication of conspiracy and deceit and topped off with a classic stock-picker boast.

And that stock-picking boast is also full of holes. US markets are booming. I've said that myself. But only certain sectors. @Filippo more or less says that herself. Her boast contradicts her idea that the index price reflects confidence. Her argument makes no sense. A booming market based only on specific sectors is not a vote of confidence that this is over. It's support for certain sectors which are judged to be resilient to the current uncertainty. Or deemed to be able to survive this.

 

You on something .? That is so deluded , but then generally you are deluded.

[Cambon]

40 minutes ago, pongo said:

100% agree @ian rush. Apart from - we are part of a Sterling zone which absolutely can print money. The practical logistics of getting that liquidity into our hyper local bit of the British economy is clearly a technical issue. But we are part of an economy which basically can create liquidity (ie create elastic money).

An interesting point. This should be brought up in the VAT negotiations. The fact the the uk has printed money to pay their own workers to stay at home, and to pay grants to their businesses to pay rents, etc. Should not be paid by Iom, jersey, Guernsey, etc. (Banker will not get this). 

[Banker]

4 minutes ago, Cambon said:

An interesting point. This should be brought up in the VAT negotiations. The fact the the uk has printed money to pay their own workers to stay at home, and to pay grants to their businesses to pay rents, etc. Should not be paid by Iom, jersey, Guernsey, etc. (Banker will not get this). 

We can create money by running a deficit but it’s against the legislation so would require primary law changes. This is why we are borrowing instead which is basically same thing but idiots like cambon who are in marketing wouldn’t understand