IOM Covid removing restrictions

[Golfer]

The main issue is that virus is under control here as it is in Jersey, Gibraltar and both the countries are moving out of lockdown with shops, bars etc opening up. The IOM on the other hand is holding focus groups, preparing more papers for CoMin before we can do anything.

whos holding everything back here, is the public sector as they don't want to go back to work, the unions or Howie too scared to make decisions?

[Lost Login]

3 minutes ago, P.K. said:

Of course it's different in S Korea. They were so efficient they didn't need a lockdown!

The IOM by it's geographic nature has the opportunity to manage to reach zero cases. Therefore that should be the aim. It won't take long to see if it's possible.

The references to cancer etc are a nonsense. That's not the real world. However folks are now wary of going to hospital for very obvious reasons. We also have a vaccine for flu as opposed to Covid-19 with it's much higher fatality rate.

Lots of obfuscation going on here....

No South Korea had no lockdown although they did in a couple of places and closed knight clubs, but they did require strict social distancing etc. It is not as though they took no measures. As I said at the start today voluntary social distancing and good hygiene will remain important on the IoM.

I would love there to be no cases in the IoM and outside nursing homes, hospitals and those working there I expect we are pretty much there. But if we cannot get there then we have to find a way to live with so we balance the risks from catching and spreading Covid 19 to the harm focusing purely on Covid 19 will do. References to cancer is not therefor nonsense as I understand regular screening and testing is something that is not going on.

[P.K.]

2 minutes ago, Lost Login said:

No South Korea had no lockdown although they did in a couple of places and closed knight clubs, but they did require strict social distancing etc. It is not as though they took no measures. As I said at the start today voluntary social distancing and good hygiene will remain important on the IoM.

I would love there to be no cases in the IoM and outside nursing homes, hospitals and those working there I expect we are pretty much there. But if we cannot get there then we have to find a way to live with so we balance the risks from catching and spreading Covid 19 to the harm focusing purely on Covid 19 will do. References to cancer is not therefor nonsense as I understand regular screening and testing is something that is not going on.

I do find that hard to believe.

So what is the rate of infection on the IOM?

After all, Mr Quayle can't make a decision based on anecdotal information.

[wrighty]

1 minute ago, P.K. said:

I do find that hard to believe.

So what is the rate of infection on the IOM?

After all, Mr Quayle can't make a decision based on anecdotal information.

What do you find hard to believe PK? Bowel cancer screening has been suspended since endoscopy is a high risk procedure, and endoscopy capacity has been drastically reduced to enable ramping up of intensive care. Breast screening too. Some cancers are not being treated in the usual way. It is a fact that the covid epidemic and the health system’s response to it will have a downside for those getting cancer now. 
 

What do you mean by rate of infection? Daily cases are published. There’s been about 10 in the last week. If you mean “what proportion of the island’s population have had it” we don’t know. Neither do Jersey. They bought those antibody kits before they’d been validated, and remarkably they’ve given the answer they assumed in their initial models. I can only imagine the howls of incompetence, fudging figures and lying that would have been forthcoming from you and others if we’d done the same here. 
 

And what is this anecdotal information  you’re on about? How about the evidence of case numbers, ED attendances, 111 calls, Noble’s occupancy etc. That’s what we tend to use in monitoring the situation. 
 

The decisions are difficult, there is no textbook. Personally I’d like to see a gradual return to more normality as soon as possible, while monitoring what happens to Covid, and if it seems to be picking up again, you might have to rein back a bit. 
 

[pongo]

3 minutes ago, wrighty said:

Personally I’d like to see a gradual return to more normality as soon as possible

You seem to be implicitly saying "not yet". Would that be a fair interpretation? 

[Southfork]

8 minutes ago, wrighty said:

The decisions are difficult, there is no textbook. Personally I’d like to see a gradual return to more normality as soon as possible, while monitoring what happens to Covid, and if it seems to be picking up again, you might have to rein back a bit. 

Away with you and your medically qualified common sense. There’s hundreds of people on here who evidently think they know better on how to manage a global pandemic. 

[Max Power]

1 hour ago, P.K. said:

The UK with it's very high Fuckwit Factor is a prime candidate to undo all the efforts put in to date.

Sadly very true, I really despair when I read some of the reports of what goes on and comments in the press and social media. 

59 minutes ago, Lost Login said:

No South Korea had no lockdown although they did in a couple of places and closed knight clubs,

I'm not sure if we did that, although we only have Miles Walker, the Governor and a few others I believe?

Edited May 10, 2020 by Max Power

[TheTeapot]

https://www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/sure-the-velociraptors-are-still-on-the-loose-but-thats-no-reason-not-to-reopen-jurassic-park

[P.K.]

44 minutes ago, wrighty said:

What do you find hard to believe PK? Bowel cancer screening has been suspended since endoscopy is a high risk procedure, and endoscopy capacity has been drastically reduced to enable ramping up of intensive care. Breast screening too. Some cancers are not being treated in the usual way. It is a fact that the covid epidemic and the health system’s response to it will have a downside for those getting cancer now. 

I didn't realise that the Covid response had taken up so many other resources. What a very difficult balancing act that must be.

Having looked I didn't know that the UK did some 200,000 per week. However it seems people aren't coming forward anyway. That's going to take some managing.

49 minutes ago, wrighty said:

What do you mean by rate of infection? Daily cases are published. There’s been about 10 in the last week. If you mean “what proportion of the island’s population have had it” we don’t know. Neither do Jersey. They bought those antibody kits before they’d been validated, and remarkably they’ve given the answer they assumed in their initial models. I can only imagine the howls of incompetence, fudging figures and lying that would have been forthcoming from you and others if we’d done the same here. 

I meant this:

"The Minister for Health and Social Services, Deputy Richard Renouf, said: "I would like to thank Islanders who took part in the survey, the healthcare workers, who carried out the antibody tests, and Statistics Jersey for their detailed work. It has created a helpful picture of how Covid-19 has spread through our community. It is estimated that about 3,300 Islanders have been infected to date."

https://www.gov.je/News/2020/Pages/AntibodyTesting.aspx

Are they lying?

54 minutes ago, wrighty said:

And what is this anecdotal information  you’re on about? How about the evidence of case numbers, ED attendances, 111 calls, Noble’s occupancy etc. That’s what we tend to use in monitoring the situation. 
 

The decisions are difficult, there is no textbook. Personally I’d like to see a gradual return to more normality as soon as possible, while monitoring what happens to Covid, and if it seems to be picking up again, you might have to rein back a bit. 

I used the word "anecdotal" in a broad sense as I'm not aware of any large scale testing taking place. And I can't see how, without large scale sample testing, they can possibly make a decision now. 

If the tactic is going to be "no new cases for two weeks" or similar then that's the tactic. But if so they could at least let people know.

Bearing in mind all the pressure to relax things, which I personally disagree with, is playing a waiting game the best thing to do?

[Out of the blue]

51 minutes ago, pongo said:

You seem to be implicitly saying "not yet". Would that be a fair interpretation? 

Or it could be interpreted as asap, as in as soon as we can get the logistics/processes sorted rather than it being down any further delay being down to the infection rate or the NHS capacity etc. Over to Wrighty...

[wrighty]

@P.K. they’re not lying, but unless you read their full paper they’re not exactly forthcoming on the accuracy of the tests they’ve used, and do not explicitly stated the confidence intervals (in the paper the rate is 3.1% +/- 1.3 if I recall correctly. 
 

[wrighty]

57 minutes ago, pongo said:

You seem to be implicitly saying "not yet". Would that be a fair interpretation? 

No. I’m one of the more hawkish members of the clinical team. Personally (let me stress that word) I’d like to see us moving a bit quicker than we are, while keeping up rigorous monitoring and tracing. 

[TheTeapot]

[Numbnuts]

18 minutes ago, wrighty said:

No. I’m one of the more hawkish members of the clinical team. Personally (let me stress that word) I’d like to see us moving a bit quicker than we are, while keeping up rigorous monitoring and tracing. 

Thanks always for your enlighting insights much appreciated by me anyway .  

[P.K.]

25 minutes ago, wrighty said:

No. I’m one of the more hawkish members of the clinical team. Personally (let me stress that word) I’d like to see us moving a bit quicker than we are, while keeping up rigorous monitoring and tracing. 

So what are the criteria for "moving forward" shall we say?