IOM Covid removing restrictions

[TerryFuchwit]

2 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

Well, it looks like the UK Government’s plan is simple, and becoming clearer. 

Letting it rip will theoretically let herd immunity be achieved by somewhere near the end of August. Either everyone will have had it, or, everyone will have been exposed to it. 

There are 4 problems with this: 

- A number of scientists are pointing out it’s the perfect breeding ground for new variants. The virus mutates all the time, usually to not great consequence, but when you’ve got a population that are half immune, then Darwinism steps in. 
 

- It throws clinically vulnerable people under the bus. There are plenty of people who risk dying from COVID despite their vaccination, especially people like transplant patients on immunosuppressants. The Government advice has been avoid the bus at busy times. Great for anyone needing to get to work. 
 

- Deaths aren’t the metric to worry about anymore. If hospitalisations keep climbing at the rate they are, along with cases, which is likely especially given restrictions lifting, then the NHS could be pegged somewhere between the first and second wave in terms of COVID beds. This is arguably manageable, but risks delaying electives and other treatments as hospitals fill up. 

- Quite a number of people who have had COVID feel like shit for quite a long time. Including about 7% of kids. And that often lasts for 12 weeks or more. So it’s not even something they’d get over in the summer. 

The shift towards the “personal responsibility” message is simply the government absolving itself of any. They’re taking a gamble, and it’s not one even Whitty or Valance seem to think is the way forward. They were talking about the importance of masks in the briefing. But that’ll be lost in the freedom messaging from Boris. 

Let’s see where we are in a month’s time, but I’m not certain it will be somewhere great. I hope I’m wrong. 

Valid points.  Probably right too.

That said, the time has arrived where life needs to return to normal.  That'll mean some people fall by the wayside.  As they do every day.  That's life.

But when you compare that to the damage that has been done with lockdowns etc over the last 18 months then it simply becomes the lesser of the evils.   

As much as people kick and scream and moan about it, the vaccination programme has been the line in the sand.  I'm certain most of us have probably had Flu.  Most us will, in time, have had covid too.   It will damage some.  It will kill some.  Some won't even notice.

But if it means we get back to normal then it's clearly a price worth paying, on balance.   Which is how governments are now looking at it.

[Nom de plume]

All this talk of throwing people under the bus, leaving hundreds to die, etc …

Those people still have choices.

They can shield, continue to wear masks, work from home, have their essentials delivered … I could go on.

It’s like, oh shit, they’re opening up - I’m immediately exposed to the virus.

Everyone has made sacrifices in these last 18 months. 

Edited July 6, 2021 by Nom de plume

[Ham_N_Eggs]

5 minutes ago, TerryFuchwit said:

That said, the time has arrived where life needs to return to normal. 

We already had a normal life over here. Much more normal than things are going to be very soon. They could have waited 2 to 4 weeks for the vaccine process to be that much further along. 

It all seems to have been rushed through because we had coach loads of tourists booked in. 

[AcousticallyChallenged]

Just now, Nom de plume said:

All this talk of throwing people under the bus, leaving hundreds to die, etc …

Those people still have choices.

They can shield, continue to wear masks, work from home, have their essentials delivered … I could go on.

It’s like, oh shit, they’re opening up - I’m immediately exposed to the virus.

Officially, it is the end of shielding. If the boss says back in, and they won’t allow remote working, you’re in or you’re on the pile who are out a job.

Most people who are shielding are likely to have medical appointments etc to attend. Probably not at times dissimilar to everyone else. So, even the government’s official advice of avoiding busy times isn’t exactly helpful. Even less so for those doing a 9-5 on public transport. 

Their choice becomes a damned if they do and damned if they don’t. At least with masks in places like buses, they’re at lower risk now than they will be in a fortnight. 

Of course, that would be very different if the virus was in low levels of circulation. But it isn’t. 

They are simply left to hope that it burns itself out quickly enough. And confined to barracks in the meantime. 

[Nom de plume]

5 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

Officially, it is the end of shielding. If the boss says back in, and they won’t allow remote working, you’re in or you’re on the pile who are out a job.

Most people who are shielding are likely to have medical appointments etc to attend. Probably not at times dissimilar to everyone else. So, even the government’s official advice of avoiding busy times isn’t exactly helpful. Even less so for those doing a 9-5 on public transport. 

Their choice becomes a damned if they do and damned if they don’t. At least with masks in places like buses, they’re at lower risk now than they will be in a fortnight. 

Of course, that would be very different if the virus was in low levels of circulation. But it isn’t. 

They are simply left to hope that it burns itself out quickly enough. And confined to barracks in the meantime. 

Life is unfair at times.

[chris4652009]

[chris4652009]

Great to see the vaccines are doing as intended and helping to keep people out of hospital 

 

[Andy Onchan]

Latest data from ONS on CV deaths vs. influenza/pneumonia (England & Wales). Full data available from here

 

[Roger Mexico]

1 hour ago, chris4652009 said:

Great to see the vaccines are doing as intended and helping to keep people out of hospital 

Well you hope so, but it's probably too soon to tell.  I had a (very) rough rule of 1 hospitalisation for every 50 active cases in the Feb/Mar outbreak and the first related admission was when there were 48 cases.

You'd hope vaccination would increase the ratio to 1 in 100 or 200 or whatever.  Jersey currently only has 2 out of 572 cases for example, so that looks likely.  But we need to see and hospital admissions policy may also have an effect.

[snowman]

Calum Semple, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) says the lifting of coronavirus restrictions is a "calculated risk".

 

The professor of child health and outbreak medicine at the University of Liverpool tells Times Radio: "I wouldn't say this is a gamble, it's more of a calculated risk."

 

"I should point out, looking at the data last night, 88% of people in hospital, from what I could see, had not been vaccinated or had had the vaccine but hadn't had the chance to develop immunity, so that's within 28 days of the vaccine.

 

"There's now an incredibly strong signal that the vaccination is working and protecting the vast majority of people."

[Roger Mexico]

2 hours ago, Nom de plume said:

Life is unfair at times.

 

[Utah 01]

18 hours ago, TheTeapot said:

You disparage the BBC and Sky but repeatedly reffer to the Telegraph

The DT is far from being the oracle of indisputable truth - and I don't think Young has received more than a few column inches - ever.  You certainly live up to your nom de plume.

 However, the DT has dared, through its science editor Sarah Knapton, to put its head over the parapet and dare to question the government's questionable and highly selective statistics and veracity of 'scientific' opinions which it has shown, on far too many occasions to be wrong, distorted to fit an argument or downright dishonest.

The fact that you seem content to use your spout to suck up the supine drivel the BBC et al have fed you and your obvious leanings to the , what shall we say, left of centre (along with many other anti-anything-that- goes- against-Grauniad/Mirror narrative as evidenced in the cretinous and completely unfounded comment above re the Express) suggests you need to expand your reading list.

I disparage the BBC (most definitely) because they, along with Sky in number 2 spot,  have been feeding the nation a distorted, government agenda diet of propaganda (there is no other word for it) for the past 16 months which of course, is probably in keeping with the political bias endemic in the MSM - and probably allies closely to your own politics.

[Nom de plume]

30 minutes ago, snowman said:

Calum Semple, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) says the lifting of coronavirus restrictions is a "calculated risk".

 

The professor of child health and outbreak medicine at the University of Liverpool tells Times Radio: "I wouldn't say this is a gamble, it's more of a calculated risk."

 

"I should point out, looking at the data last night, 88% of people in hospital, from what I could see, had not been vaccinated or had had the vaccine but hadn't had the chance to develop immunity, so that's within 28 days of the vaccine.

 

"There's now an incredibly strong signal that the vaccination is working and protecting the vast majority of people."

When you look at those stats you do wonder why they didn’t hang on just that little bit longer to get at least all those willing to be vaccinated given the first dose.

But ….

Parliament goes into its summer recess Friday 23rd July & those politicians need summer sun too.

[AlanShimmin]

4 hours ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

Well, it looks like the UK Government’s plan is simple, and becoming clearer. 

Letting it rip will theoretically let herd immunity be achieved by somewhere near the end of August. Either everyone will have had it, or, everyone will have been exposed to it. 

There are 4 problems with this: 

- A number of scientists are pointing out it’s the perfect breeding ground for new variants. The virus mutates all the time, usually to not great consequence, but when you’ve got a population that are half immune, then Darwinism steps in. 
 

- It throws clinically vulnerable people under the bus. There are plenty of people who risk dying from COVID despite their vaccination, especially people like transplant patients on immunosuppressants. The Government advice has been avoid the bus at busy times. Great for anyone needing to get to work. 
 

- Deaths aren’t the metric to worry about anymore. If hospitalisations keep climbing at the rate they are, along with cases, which is likely especially given restrictions lifting, then the NHS could be pegged somewhere between the first and second wave in terms of COVID beds. This is arguably manageable, but risks delaying electives and other treatments as hospitals fill up. 

- Quite a number of people who have had COVID feel like shit for quite a long time. Including about 7% of kids. And that often lasts for 12 weeks or more. So it’s not even something they’d get over in the summer. 

The shift towards the “personal responsibility” message is simply the government absolving itself of any. They’re taking a gamble, and it’s not one even Whitty or Valance seem to think is the way forward. They were talking about the importance of masks in the briefing. But that’ll be lost in the freedom messaging from Boris. 

Let’s see where we are in a month’s time, but I’m not certain it will be somewhere great. I hope I’m wrong. 

Herd immunity by the end of August could well be better than no herd immunity as we go barrelling into flu season. 

Perhaps clinically vulnerable people can isolate until September?

[Nom de plume]

1 minute ago, AlanShimmin said:

Herd immunity by the end of August could well be better than no herd immunity as we go barrelling into flu season. 

Perhaps clinically vulnerable people can isolate until September?

Don’t think they’ve much choice if they want to stay alive.