Roger Mexico Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 3 hours ago, wrighty said: The behaviour of this viral infection is very difficult to understand. Questions - Is the infection fatality rate decreasing for some reason, or is it the same it’s always been, and we’re now seeing loads of cases due to testing more, and it’s millennials going to raves getting it rather than nursing home residents? Is there a seasonal effect? Vitamin D? Being outside? Have all the people really susceptible to this new virus been killed off and the rest of us have either had it, are immune to it, or are minimally affected by it? Has this led to populations such as the UK effectively having herd immunity now and covid has become another common cold in that population? There was an interesting analysis earlier in the week in the FT, looking at the various reasons why the death rate has been so low while infections have started to rise again. Some of the reasons may have had an effect, such as more testing picking up cases with no or minor symptoms, and improved care (itself covering quite a lot of different factors) will certainly have made an impression on the death rate. The UK government has also adjusted The vitamin D stuff is nonsense, but people being outdoors more will certainly have some effect because the virus spreads so much more easily indoors. Another article in Time this week made the point about it now being pretty clear that Covid-19 can be spread in aerosol form and these are much more deadly indoors. The herd immunity thing has always been wishful thinking and the documented case of reinfection this week undermines it further (previous infection seems to help protect someone from disease, but won't stop them passing it on) and the idea that all the susceptible have already perished would only make sense if the infection rate was 100%, rather than the single figures that most studies suggest. The change in age mix in the positive cases may help with current figures, but may be storing up problems for later. If there is rapid spread among younger people it will inevitably leak into older groups and the hospitalisations will rise again. The pattern has happened with second waves elsewhere (eg Florida). There is another possibility which the FT article doesn't mention, but which it's data suggest could be a factor: Quote In the UK “pillar 2” tests conducted outside hospitals and NHS labs have increased faster than “pillar 1” hospital-based testing, particularly since early July. Pillar 2 tests have a higher positive rate: around 7.5 in every 1,000 confirm infection, a figure that has been increasing since the resurgence of recorded cases. The positive rates of pillar 1 tests conducted in hospitals and NHS labs has fallen to around two in every 1,000 in the same period. Pillar 2 tests are processed commercially and it may be that they are producing a higher level of false positives than the NHS. With current levels of infection the difference doesn't have to be high - 5 in 1000 tests would explain the discrepancy. This would mean the number of cases is being overstated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nom de plume Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 (edited) 15 hours ago, thommo2010 said: 1,715 UK cases - highest since May. 1 death. Wonder which of those figures will be the story Likelihood of HQ addressing the nation with an update? Perhaps an idea when they plan to introduce the next steps, a clue as to what they might be, you know ... some information I think they call it. It would be nice, I mean, it’s only been over a month. Is he hiding somewhere, praying it all goes away? Edited August 31, 2020 by Nom de plume 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesultanofsheight Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Was talking to someone in the UK the other day. Asked me what was going on in Jersey as 4 friends or people he worked with have gone on holiday there in the last few weeks. None had ever gone there before on holiday but said they’d weighed up the risks and thought it was the safest place to go in Europe due to the testing policy. Clearly what they are doing is working to get the tourist numbers up. But we’re still Brigadoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nom de plume Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Jersey is thriving SoS. We aren’t Jersey however, our Island is far more picturesque. We’ve been incredibly spoiled but the time has come to move on now. The most disturbing aspect in all this is the lack of transparency being shown by our Government on the discussions which have led (and continue) to the border closing policies. The Manx people have a right to know what is being said & by whom. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunroamin Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/wait-for-patients-not-good-enough/ Meanwhile, while the economy crashes and burns and non resident Manx born people are barred, the NHS is so protected that Treatment waiting lists are growing exponentially and people are dying through lack of available diagnosis and treatment! Why are out patients having to be transported to Ramsey for out patient consultations? Is Nobles being utilised or still waiting for the explosion in numbers of Covid patients? OPEN THE BORDERS NOW!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 55 minutes ago, Nom de plume said: Likelihood of HQ addressing the nation with an update? Perhaps an idea when they plan to introduce the next steps, a clue as to what they might be, you know ... some information I think they call it. It would be nice, I mean, it’s only been over a month. Is he hiding somewhere, praying it all goes away? Jersey & Guernsey CMs both addressed nations on Friday, where’s Howie? heres Jersey, testing ranked best in Europe by independent assessments. https://www.gov.je/News/2020/Pages/CMSpeech28August.aspx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thommo2010 Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Wasnt there supposed to be an update by the end of august? Maybe I heard it wrong but I thought that's when the borders were being looked at again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 1 minute ago, thommo2010 said: Wasnt there supposed to be an update by the end of august? Maybe I heard it wrong but I thought that's when the borders were being looked at again That’s what Howie said but it didn’t happen! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gettafa Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 52 minutes ago, thesultanofsheight said: But we’re still Brigadoon. You are Howard's scriptwriter and I claim my £5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTeapot Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Well we've had the big weekend now (a roaring success by the looks of things) so maybe they'll consider some changes. One of the problems is that they published their plan to reduce restrictions based on the UK infection rate dropping, and that hasn't really happened to any great extent. And we all know our gov doesn't like even a suggestion that they might have got things wrong. Even if that is debatable. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thommo2010 Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 20 minutes ago, TheTeapot said: Well we've had the big weekend now (a roaring success by the looks of things) so maybe they'll consider some changes. One of the problems is that they published their plan to reduce restrictions based on the UK infection rate dropping, and that hasn't really happened to any great extent. And we all know our gov doesn't like even a suggestion that they might have got things wrong. Even if that is debatable. The infection rate is high because theres more testing being done. I have no doubts covid is on the island but theres no testing going on unless you get symptoms or go to the hospital. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTeapot Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Are you a Trumper? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utah 01 Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 1 hour ago, thommo2010 said: Wasnt there supposed to be an update by the end of august? ......2025. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gettafa Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 (edited) 55 minutes ago, thommo2010 said: The infection rate is high because theres more testing being done. I have no doubts covid is on the island but theres no testing going on unless you get symptoms or go to the hospital. Careful now Thommo lad, @rachomics will have you branded a conspiracy theorist. Edited August 31, 2020 by gettafa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Newbie Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 (edited) 6 hours ago, thommo2010 said: The infection rate is high because theres more testing being done. I have no doubts covid is on the island but theres no testing going on unless you get symptoms or go to the hospital. Absolutely correct. It seems like the perfect IOM government solution. Let’s not test those at the very highest range of the risk spectrum and claim we’re Covid free. Edited August 31, 2020 by Mr Newbie 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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