Nom de plume Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 1 hour ago, pongo said: Thanks to work and Covid I will soon (like many) have spent 18 months here without leaving. 2 years is not going to feel so much different. The first time in decades. I certainly haven't got bored. If anything my love and appreciation of the island has grown. And I've lived and travelled all over the world. My dad told me years ago that only very dull people ever get bored anywhere. Jesus. The definition of inbred. Congrats. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyone Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, Nom de plume said: Jesus. The definition of inbred. Congrats. Don’t wind the poor chap up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thommo2010 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 11 hours ago, pongo said: Thanks to work and Covid I will soon (like many) have spent 18 months here without leaving. 2 years is not going to feel so much different. The first time in decades. I certainly haven't got bored. If anything my love and appreciation of the island has grown. And I've lived and travelled all over the world. My dad told me years ago that only very dull people ever get bored anywhere. I am off to the UK to watch the football in 2 weeks time. Can't wait. each to their own 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apple Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 44 minutes ago, Roxanne said: People do exist, you know, being entirely happy just where they are. They practice daily gratitude for everything they have just where they are without the constant gnawing of wishing they were somewhere else, doing something else, looking at something else. Finding peace and contentment, just where you are is a skill that makes a happier life for many. There is no need to judge them. You do your thing and let others do theirs. Hallelujah. Really good post. Have good day for that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris4652009 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happier diner Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Latest UK graphs show that infections rate still increasing, although if you looked with an optimistic eye you might say there is a sign of a levelling. Hospitalisation creeping up but deaths at next to nothing and statistically going down 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcousticallyChallenged Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 12 minutes ago, Happier diner said: Latest UK graphs show that infections rate still increasing, although if you looked with an optimistic eye you might say there is a sign of a levelling. Hospitalisation creeping up but deaths at next to nothing and statistically going down The doubling rate has been slowing down over the past week or so for new cases. It's now doubling every 12 days, rather than every 9. Quote Estimated doubling / halving time Most recent 7-day average: 27,557 Average a week ago: 19,296 Weekly change: 42.8% Doubling time: 1/ base 2 log of (27557/19296) = 1.95 weeks = 13.62 days. Previous doubling times: 06/07: 12.2 days 05/07: 11.4 days 04/07: 9.5 days 03/07: 9.5 days 02/07: 8.7 days 01/07: 9.0 days 30/06: 9.1 days Hospital admission rates have been doing the opposite though. Quote Estimated doubling / halving time (note most recent figure is for Jun 5): Most recent 7-day average: 335 Average a week ago: 227 Weekly change: 47.5% Doubling time: 1/ base 2 log of (335/227) = 1.53 weeks = 10.7 days. Previous doubling times: 04/07: 11.5 days 03/07: 12.7 days 02/07: 13.3 days 01/07: 14.9 days 30/06: 18.5 days 29/06: 22.1 days 28/06: 32.4 days Now, hospital admissions are doubling every 10 days. And that rate has come up rapidly in the past week. The good news is, people in hospital seem to be coming out again more quickly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nom de plume Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 What, there’s good news? That’s a bit of a pisser. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oooohtony Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Hospital admission rates are going to grow. Say 20 percent of your population are active cases at any given time (according to a test) that’s broadly going to be 20 percent of people admitted to hospital for any reason. It was people on ventilators they stressed about at first which was fair enough as they were clearly very ill and utilising a limited resource. Now it’s people who had a heart attack or car crash but happen to give a positive pcr result on admission. Total madness 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcousticallyChallenged Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 So, this might set off people like NDP and Utah, calling it doom and gloom, but it's a measured piece on what's likely to have to give as hospitalizations rise. For the lazy, I've picked out some of the key tweets. Quote There’s high confidence amongst trust leaders that increasing community infection rates, even to the levels we saw in January, will not translate into the levels of hospitalisation and mortality we saw in that peak So the issue for NHS pressure here is not, as most are implying, the likely absolute level of covid-19 hospital admissions. All the current evidence suggests that, due to the vaccines, the number of covid-19 hospital admissions will be much lower than in previous waves It’s the combination of the likely higher level of demand across the totality of urgent, planned and covid care. With the significant impact of reduced bed and staff capacity which higher levels of covid-19 will significantly exacerbate as community infections rise. The NHS will come under significant extra pressure. When that happens, acute hospitals would have to dial back speed of elective recovery – the element they can control out of urgent, covid-19 and elective care. So, a clear & important trade off to recognise here. In the words of one CEO today “We are really worried in our system about the number of unvaccinated young people we are seeing with mild covid-19 disease who are then developing serious long covid type symptoms shortly after. Not just a few, a significant number” And trust leaders want the explicit trade off set out above to be recognised. Relaxing restrictions will lead to more pressure on the NHS. This will, by definition, mean that something has to give. Most likely, in most places, speed of care backlog recovery. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcousticallyChallenged Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, oooohtony said: Hospital admission rates are going to grow. Say 20 percent of your population are active cases at any given time (according to a test) that’s broadly going to be 20 percent of people admitted to hospital for any reason. It was people on ventilators they stressed about at first which was fair enough as they were clearly very ill and utilising a limited resource. Now it’s people who had a heart attack or car crash but happen to give a positive pcr result on admission. Total madness And here is why those people going in and testing positive still causes problems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oooohtony Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 I get the knock on effect of COVID patients being in hospital, whether that is the reason they are there or not. Lots do not. Lots still think COVID admissions rising equals thousands of people at deaths door, purely because they caught COVID. Surely there needs to come a point where we just stop testing? Or the hospitals will never cope if loads of patients need extra space and precautions in case they pass something they didn’t know they had onto someone who is either fully vaccinated or has already had it? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy Onchan Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 32 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said: The good news is, people in hospital seem to be coming out again more quickly. Which begs the question.... did they really need to be in there in the first place? Genuine question as 'we', as a society, seem to run to the quacks and and hospital at the first sign of a headache these days. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happier diner Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 43 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said: The doubling rate has been slowing down over the past week or so for new cases. It's now doubling every 12 days, rather than every 9. Hospital admission rates have been doing the opposite though. Now, hospital admissions are doubling every 10 days. And that rate has come up rapidly in the past week. The good news is, people in hospital seem to be coming out again more quickly. Correction - hospital admissions are doubling every doubled in 10 days but the graph is linear and not currently following the exponential growth that is infection rate. You can't say doubling every 10 days until you have a lot more data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevster Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 (edited) Wrong topic...... Edited July 8, 2021 by kevster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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