IOM Covid removing restrictions

[Out of the blue]

1 minute ago, P.K. said:

So what are the criteria for "moving forward" shall we say?

Okay, let me start with the most extreme relaxation option. Is there any clinical reason to object to the vast majority getting back to normal (with track and trace and SD where practical), leaving those with underlying conditions and/or over a certain age still locked down but supported? Wrighty, if you able to answer this in a personal capacity, I genuinely would be interested to hear your opinion. There are so many opinions, voices and debates it has just become noise. 

[The Dog's Dangly Bits]

People shouldn't rise to PKs blatant trolling. 

[Roger Mexico]

1 hour ago, Lost Login said:

If you think that dealing with a pandemic in South Korea or the UK is the same as dealing with in the IoM I really have very little to say to you. But even if was not it does not address my fundamental point which is having zero cases and fatalities in the IoM from Covid 19 to the detriment of anything else be the aim of the IoM. As I said we are prepared to have deaths from Flu every year in the IoM. If for every 1 life we save from Covid 19 we miss at an early stage 10 cases of cancer is that acceptable. Your posts give the impression that you consider having no more Covid 19 deaths in the IoM is the only position that is acceptable. I believe it is far more nuanced than that as there are knock on effects from whatever action we take, both positive and negative. Fatalities from Covid 19 are not welcome and ideally there would be 0 in the IoM but we should not get blinded by Covid 19 and ignore everything else.  

No one is saying that we are exactly the same as anywhere else, but the virus is the same as everywhere and so are human beings.  So we should try to learn as much as we can from other countries and places experiences, adjusting where necessary to cater for different circumstances.  We should pay particular attention to those in similar island situations, such as Iceland or Malta or maybe larger ones such as Ireland or Cyprus..  But pretending that we can ignore everywhere else because we're 'special' would be incredibly stupid.

To say we should concentrate less on COVID and more on other things (accepting a level of COVID) is a false dichotomy.  Epidemics aren't like a tap - you can't adjust them so they are at the desired level.  If COVID-19 takes off again it could very easily be in danger of overwhelming health services as we have seen in a number of other places around the world and in that case not only do all those other services get completely abandoned - more than they have had to up to now, but those who have undergone treatments may be at a greater risk than if nothing was done.

[Golfer]

Schools reopening partially in UK from 1st June, probably before IOM at this rate. None of this bollocks about discussing with unions and focus groups, rough dates given by Boris for next stages. 

COme in Howie, show some backbone and get Island moving & schools opened.

[WTF]

3 minutes ago, Golfer said:

Schools reopening partially in UK from 1st June, probably before IOM at this rate. None of this bollocks about discussing with unions and focus groups, rough dates given by Boris for next stages. 

COme in Howie, show some backbone and get Island moving & schools opened.

asking the invertebrate to show backbone,  classic  

[Numbnuts]

3 minutes ago, Golfer said:

Schools reopening partially in UK from 1st June, probably before IOM at this rate. None of this bollocks about discussing with unions and focus groups, rough dates given by Boris for next stages. 

COme in Howie, show some backbone and get Island moving & schools opened.

Thats going to backfire on UK big time . Sorry but theres no sign over there that they are on top of this . 

[Nomadic Raptor]

4 minutes ago, Golfer said:

Schools reopening partially in UK from 1st June, probably before IOM at this rate. None of this bollocks about discussing with unions and focus groups, rough dates given by Boris for next stages. 

COme in Howie, show some backbone and get Island moving & schools opened.

It will be before iom.  We have the problem with the unions and they are going to use all of this to get whatever they want 

[Golfer]

3 minutes ago, Nomadic Raptor said:

It will be before iom.  We have the problem with the unions and they are going to use all of this to get whatever they want 

That's why Howie, Allison etc need to stand up and say this is what's happening and if you don't like it we'll furlough you.

[Lost Login]

5 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

To say we should concentrate less on COVID and more on other things (accepting a level of COVID) is a false dichotomy. 

But so is concentrating purely on Covid 19 and that really is my point. To some it seems that all that matters is ensuring there are no cases/deaths on the IoM to the detriment of everything else. PK seems to be of that ilk and did not seem to be aware of the scaling back in the IoM if cancer testing although it has been reasonable well covered.  It may be though that PK is one of those comments on IoM issues despite not living here

[TheTeapot]

The government have put out a statement today about the challenges of returning to school. You can read it here

https://covid19.gov.im/news-releases-statements/roadmap-outlines-challenges-of-getting-children-back-to-school/

This is the last sentence

Quote

It is accepted that for the near future there will be a minority of pupils and school staff who will not, or cannot return to a school environment even with safety modifications.

 

 

Edited May 10, 2020 by TheTeapot

[Roger Mexico]

2 hours ago, wrighty said:

What do you mean by rate of infection? Daily cases are published. There’s been about 10 in the last week. If you mean “what proportion of the island’s population have had it” we don’t know. Neither do Jersey. They bought those antibody kits before they’d been validated, and remarkably they’ve given the answer they assumed in their initial models. I can only imagine the howls of incompetence, fudging figures and lying that would have been forthcoming from you and others if we’d done the same here. 

And people accuse me of being cynical!  Though you can't really slag off Jersey for buying 10,000 test kits (though the Mail claimed they've bought 500,000) when the UK bought 4 million that turned out to be useless.  Though I suppose you could argue that, as the UK government's only policy aim seems to be to provide 'good' headlines for their mates in the media (rather than say something more mundane, like stopping people dying) then they got what they wanted.

The Jersey report reveals that they only seem to have used less than 1000 test kits as yet, though under the circumstances it seems well enough conducted.  The main  problem is the obvious one that it assumes a specificity of 100%.  In other words there are no false positives and everyone who tests as having the COVID-19 antibodies actually has them, rather than for another coronavirus or has none at all (p 7):

Quote

In respect of specificity, we have assumed a specificity of 100%, in line with the findings of the WHO report and the locally-performed validation. We have, however, not incorporated the WHO published confidence intervals for specificity into our final estimates of uncertainty. If these were incorporated,then the confidence interval of prevalence would encompass zero; indeed, if the actual specificity was 97% or below then the estimated population prevalence would be below zero.

The actual confidence levels are so wide however, that it's as much about hope than anything else.

That said the figure they get of 3.1% (+/- 1.3) is not implausible, though it highlights the problem that, even if it is true, the vast majority of people have not been infected and so can have no immunity  - though of course those infected may not either.

[Golfer]

20 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

The government have put out a statement today about the challenges of returning to school. You can read it here

https://covid19.gov.im/news-releases-statements/roadmap-outlines-challenges-of-getting-children-back-to-school/

This is the last sentence

 

Must have guessed Boris was going to mention schools and thought they had better put out some waffle out which says nothing really.

Edited May 10, 2020 by Golfer

[piebaps]

37 minutes ago, Golfer said:

Schools reopening partially in UK from 1st June, probably before IOM at this rate. None of this bollocks about discussing with unions and focus groups, rough dates given by Boris for next stages. 

COme in Howie, show some backbone and get Island moving & schools opened.

No they're not. He said the earliest they could open would be 1st June. But that was conditional.

[Southfork]

It looks like Boris, 10:to12 weeks far too late, has agreed with the IOM approach to quarantine all incomers as strangely locking people up in their own homes and causing mass unemployment hasn’t stopped transmission when 15,000 people a day still fly into UK airports unchecked and get into straight taxi to go wherever they want. 

Edited May 10, 2020 by Southfork

[P.K.]

26 minutes ago, Lost Login said:

But so is concentrating purely on Covid 19 and that really is my point. To some it seems that all that matters is ensuring there are no cases/deaths on the IoM to the detriment of everything else. PK seems to be of that ilk and did not seem to be aware of the scaling back in the IoM if cancer testing although it has been reasonable well covered.  It may be though that PK is one of those comments on IoM issues despite not living here

As I believe I have told you before we live in both places.

As I posted previously with it's geography and control of it's own borders the island could be free of the virus in quite a short space of time.

As to concentrating purely on Covid 19 totally amoral narcissistic serial philanderer and inveterate liar Boris Johnson has just been on the telly saying that Covid 19 is the worst thing we've had to face seemingly forever. He did not mention cancer, flu, bunions or anything else.

As for Mr Quayle I'm quietly confident that when he pushed himself forward for CM he did it unconcerned that one day he might be making life or death decisions. So I fully expect him to err very much on the side of caution. Because it's safer from a career point of view.