IOM Covid removing restrictions

[kevster]

8 minutes ago, Gladys said:

I cannot get any LFTs

My daughter was asked by a friend to send some LFTs over from London. Friend tested positive

[The Old Git]

5 minutes ago, kevster said:

My daughter was asked by a friend to send some LFTs over from London. Friend tested positive

How reliable are LFTs?

Was reading about one journalist who’d had six positive LFTs and four negative PCR tests. 

[Ramseyboi]

Some good posts from weighty this morning.

Any of the doom mongers going to pipe up and disagree with him?  We all know if the same posts had been made by various other posters non de plume for example they would have been torn apart by now.

Mr Wright talks sense.  I really think the government need to clearly get this info out to people.

They made mistakes in the past, and there are issues now with isolatition and it will take another week or so for the new changes to rectify those as people just stop testing.

I have every confidence in where we are now the only issue I see is that so many people are still terrified and a strong leader needs to stand up and put some clear facts out about kids with COVId and the other things people are unnecessarily stressing about.

 

[Ramseyboi]

3 minutes ago, The Old Git said:

How reliable are LFTs?

Was reading about one journalist who’d had six positive LFTs and four negative PCR tests. 

Might be wrong, but false posited are apparently much likely than false negatives.

Best indicator of if someone is sick or not is symptoms.  Bit of an old school approach but I like it

[HeliX]

3 minutes ago, Ramseyboi said:

Might be wrong, but false posited are apparently much likely than false negatives.

Best indicator of if someone is sick or not is symptoms.  Bit of an old school approach but I like it

If you're talking about LFTs you are wrong. False negative rate is very high.

@The Old Git - I think the journalist in question was suspected to have either an unusual strain or some unusual genetics that made PCR tests less useful? If I remember rightly.

[Nom de plume]

5 minutes ago, Ramseyboi said:

Some good posts from weighty this morning.

Any of the doom mongers going to pipe up and disagree with him?  We all know if the same posts had been made by various other posters non de plume for example they would have been torn apart by now.

Mr Wright talks sense.  I really think the government need to clearly get this info out to people.

They made mistakes in the past, and there are issues now with isolatition and it will take another week or so for the new changes to rectify those as people just stop testing.

I have every confidence in where we are now the only issue I see is that so many people are still terrified and a strong leader needs to stand up and put some clear facts out about kids with COVId and the other things people are unnecessarily stressing about.

 

NDP is so un-arsed whether his content is torn apart! :0)

NDP speaks what he believes (and dare he say it, many others too) to be the truth at all times*

NDP has just enjoyed a lap of the course on his motorcycle in the glorious Manx sunshine.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*sometimes he is a piss taking mischief maker, but trust him ... he's a good person really.   

[AcousticallyChallenged]

12 minutes ago, Ramseyboi said:

Might be wrong, but false posited are apparently much likely than false negatives.

Best indicator of if someone is sick or not is symptoms.  Bit of an old school approach but I like it

You’re entirely wrong. 

False positive rate on lateral flows is around 0.1% officially, and around 0.03% in practice. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-analysis-of-lateral-flow-tests-shows-specificity-of-at-least-999

Lateral flows are more likely to show a false negative. They’re not as sensitive as PCR testing. 

There’s an argument for them detecting higher viral loads more accurately though. And intuitively, if you’re shedding more virus, you’re more likely to be passing it on. 

Edited July 21, 2021 by AcousticallyChallenged

[Cassie2]

1 hour ago, wrighty said:

Auto-generated e-mails from UK retailers don't realise we're not UK

1. What is your point Mr Wright? Is Covid19 in the UK but not here? What about the Delta variant? Is that also only in the UK? Should stores here just ignore the UK protocols and take no mitigation actions at all? 

2. And what is your view on the current free-for-all in the light of the challenge of any new variants yet to appear for which our current vaccinations are not effective to the same extent? How long will it take to develop new vaccines that are effective, to gain regulatory approvals for them, to manufacture them, to distribute them and to get them into the people's bodies? After all, in spite of Professor Ashford's policies, we are still very far from the numbers needed for anything like Herd Immunity to the current Codvid19 strains and even that lowish penetration rate has already taken over 8 months has it not?  A recent paper suggests it needs to be 80%+ of the entire population to be vaccinated.

3. And could you also perhaps comment please on whether you think it reasonable, or remotely sensible, for the setting up of the Emergencies Advisory Committee experts to have taken over a year? And for it even now not to have been consulted about all the recent restrictions abolitions?

I hope that you are enjoying your leave in this stunning weather.

Edited July 21, 2021 by Cassie2

[Gladys]

38 minutes ago, AlanShimmin said:

Realistically unless you're in a bunker the whole population are close contacts.

True, but mine is in the same house.  I don't have a bunker mentality, but want to be responsible, that's all. 

[Happier diner]

28 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

You’re entirely wrong. 

False positive rate on lateral flows is around 0.1% officially, and around 0.03% in practice. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-analysis-of-lateral-flow-tests-shows-specificity-of-at-least-999

Lateral flows are more likely to show a false negative. They’re not as sensitive as PCR testing. 

There’s an argument for them detecting higher viral loads more accurately though. And intuitively, if you’re shedding more virus, you’re more likely to be passing it on. 

I always thought that the false negative was because the person taking the swab had not proddled deep or hard enough to actually collect the nasty viruses from said persons orifices. The test itself (with a correct and representative sample) is shirley near to 100% reliable

[wrighty]

20 minutes ago, Cassie2 said:

1. What is your point Mr Wright? Is Covid19 in the UK but not here? What about the Delta variant? Is that also only in the UK? Should stores here just ignore the UK protocols and take no mitigation actions at all? 

Stores here should take notice of the appropriate local, ie IOM, regulations, just as Tesco in Scotland, Wales and NI will likely have slightly different regulations than England.  The point is that Tesco and B&Q here can't continue with mask usage as they've not been enforcing it for the last several months.  In my view it should be up to the local store managers, guided by government here and current caseload, whether they request masks in their stores or not.

2. And what is your view on the current free-for-all in the light of the challenge of any new variants yet to appear for which our current vaccinations are not effective to the same extent? How long will it take to develop new vaccines that are effective, to gain regulatory approvals for them, to manufacture them, to distribute them and to get them into the people's bodies? After all, in spite of Professor Ashford's policies, we are still very far from the numbers needed for anything like Herd Immunity to the current Codvid19 strains and even that lowish penetration rate has already taken over 8 months has it not?  A recent paper suggests it needs to be 80%+ of the entire population to be vaccinated.

No vaccine is 100% effective for everyone.  Booster jabs will be easy to change, especially the Pfizer mRNA type - just change the sequence according to the dominant variant's spike protein gene sequence.  Regulatory approval should be a rubber stamp job, as the concept and safety profile is already approved.  A bit like how the flu vaccine changes every season.  You don't see a commotion over that every year.  I think we are almost there with herd immunity, if not already.  What's the R number if we look at hospital admissions rather than positive tests?

3. And could you also perhaps comment please on whether you think it reasonable, or remotely sensible, for the setting up of the Emergencies Advisory Committee experts to have taken over a year? And for it even now not to have been consulted about all the recent restrictions abolitions?

At the start of the pandemic we rapidly established a clinical advisory group which acted like the island's SAGE committee.  This was highly effective in the first phase of the pandemic from March 2020.  After we achieved local elimination and clinicians got back to normal work this was somewhat put on the back burner towards the end of 2020.  I don't know anything about the new committee - I'm not on it, and don't know if it was consulted or not.

I hope that you are enjoying your leave in this stunning weather.

 

[wrighty]

44 minutes ago, Ramseyboi said:

Some good posts from weighty this morning.

 

I know I could do with losing a couple of kgs, but that's a bit harsh

[John Wright]

1 minute ago, wrighty said:

I know I could do with losing a couple of kgs, but that's a bit harsh

You were looking good in the stilettos  on FB this morning. Or was that your daughter using them for height advantage. 

[Roger Mexico]

35 minutes ago, The Old Git said:

How reliable are LFTs?

Was reading about one journalist who’d had six positive LFTs and four negative PCR tests. 

It's quite likely.  The tests which are used in Britain are so unreliable that the CDC in the US told people to stop using them last month.

[Cassie2]

Deleted

Edited July 21, 2021 by Cassie2