Ham_N_Eggs Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, Andy Onchan said: I tend to look at the "Cases by specimen date" of the data set. It's a couple of days behind the "Cases by date reported" but I believe it presents a more accurate picture. You'll see the difference when you look at the graphs. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?_ga=2.242591809.2120377948.1626884701-1326513770.1626884701 The weekly rises give a more accurate view as it tends to flatten daily spikes. When they start to drop then this wave will have peaked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gladys Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Andy Onchan said: The antibody numbers across UK are looking good, taken in the round with all the other data (cases look as though they're on the way down): https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19antibodydatafortheuk Isn't that an exercise that we stopped last year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ham_N_Eggs Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 17 minutes ago, Gladys said: Isn't that an exercise that we stopped last year? Ashford didn't think it was worthwhile so they stopped it halfway through. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy Onchan Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 22 minutes ago, Gladys said: Isn't that an exercise that we stopped last year? Indeed Gladys. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenFairfax Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 Bit off immediate topic sorry about that, but I took the standard SEIR model of infectious disease (what UK SAGE, Prof Ferguson et al use) and calibrated it against the ongoing IoM Natural Wave here on the IoM. You get some big numbers, like 1,573 cases on 6th August and by 24th Aug 22 Nobles bed occupied (did not consider deaths or Long COVID in model). People really need to be aware what is coming and 2+2s particularly high risk groups should do whatever the can to not become infected. The critical period is over the next 4 weeks. I posted in effect a narrative of the model onto a web page at: https://sites.google.com/webcabcomponents.com/seir-model-of-iom-natural-wave/home?authuser=0 and also to twitter at: Got any question or queries happy to do my best to answer them. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoTailT Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 (edited) This data for England is quite telling as far as I'm concerned.. Paste of the commentary which accompanied this data, which is also very telling. Produced by Suzanne Lugthart, a research & insights expert for ITV, eBay and Rightmove. Quote 1. First thing to note is that there weren't 50,000 positive tests today: what's reported covers a spread of dates. Note also "positive tests". A "case" is something altogether different clinically 2. The last time there were 50,000 positive tests by specimen date, on January 11th, there were 1129 deaths reported 3. The mean average number of deaths for each day when cases exceeded 50,000 (10 of them) was 845 4. Latest data for 14th July reports 44,000 cases and 22 deaths - this will change a little over the coming days. 5. 22 deaths isn't far off the average number of suicides per day (2019 figures, we can only pray lockdowns haven't made that worse). The difference of course is that the average age of a suicide victim isn't 82. You won't hear about those on the BBC (or other media outlets) 6. Around 20 times that number will have died of cancer today, but you won't hear that on the BBC either The link between cases and deaths is truly broken. We need to stop testing and stop reporting cases. They are a total irrelevance and doing nothing more than fuel the hysteria Edited July 21, 2021 by NoTailT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happier diner Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 2 hours ago, Nom de plume said: All out of our control sadly. Mind you, Starmer & his gang of clowns look the most inept opposition in living memory. And they are up against some pretty tough competition! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happier diner Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Ham_N_Eggs said: Ashford didn't think it was worthwhile so they stopped it halfway through. He made a good decision. Total waste of time, money, and energy to tell us nothing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gladys Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Ham_N_Eggs said: Ashford didn't think it was worthwhile so they stopped it halfway through. I am increasingly coming to the conclusion that the less Ashford "thinks", the better off we will all be. 5 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iom_dave Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 (edited) So, just looking through the modelling approach from Ben, I think you are splitting out the population of the unvaccinated (Kids) from the vaccinated but then using R based on an unvaccinated population. I'm not quite sure how you set R0 (key unknown in these sort of models), is it the original R0? In simple terms it feels a bit as though the model is taking all the kids to the Calf of Man and then giving them Covid 1.0. Issues with this: 1. R0 is based on the population having no immunity, in this case 64k+5k should be immune, reducing the changes greatly of finding someone to pass it on to. This should reduce the R0 in the model starting conditions. 2. R0 for delta is much higher (maybe 6?) but I think the net effect (combined with 1) is probably something like 1.5 - similar to the R0 in the UK. The UK has more masks but less immunisation and is also much more densely populated - e.g. the tube. 3. Very few kids are getting covid - see stats below As an FYI, when I first heard about 2+2 in June I thought it was madness as vaccinated can carry. I still think it was a bad idea and they should have waited a month to allow under 30s to be vaccinated. Having looked at the vaccination stats and current infection stats I think it might be ok to badish (rather than the terrible forecast above). The kids dont seem to be getting it (the population in the model above) and about to go on summer holidays, the 15-30s are getting it, but as they have had a first mostly had at least one jab, they will have antibodies of some level and not end up in hospital - this is supported by the low number of hospital cases at the moment (though there is a 2 week lag on this). https://covid19.gov.im/general-information/covid-19-vaccination-statistics/ https://covid19.gov.im/general-information/latest-updates/ Edited July 21, 2021 by iom_dave remove duplicate image 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the stinking enigma Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 https://gef.im/2021/07/21/chief-minister-feels-unsafe-with-manx-radio/ It's all a bit sir alex ferguson if you ask me. I'm not sure who that leaves to do the interviews. Is the voice of reason setting up his own youtube channel? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenFairfax Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, iom_dave said: So, just looking through the modelling approach from Ben, I think you are splitting out the population of the unvaccinated (Kids) from the vaccinated but then using R based on an unvaccinated population. I'm not quite sure how you set R0 (key unknown in these sort of models), is it the original R0? Regarding R, with regard to SEIR the useful concept is what I call 'effective R' deflecting both the organic properties of the virus, AND aspects effecting it ability to passed between host such as: i) Topological properties of the social network ii) Behaviour risk averse dynamics I got this query and few times and wrote up a general overview at: https://sites.google.com/webcabcomponents.com/seir-model-of-iom-natural-wave/home/effective-r-herd-immunity-and-seir-model?authuser=0 Which I think address (1), (2); with regard to (3) this in nothing to do with model and our local expert on testing Dr Rachel Glover @rachomics who posted plenty material here. My personal view (I have zero training in this area) if ~50% with no have symptoms and ~50% with symptoms will not get a PCR test. So I would start with a multiplier of x4 on PCR test results (if you believe them at all). Personal in terms of benchmarking model (say) I would take hospitalization data for children and put 400x multiplier (4x multiplier of 1% hospitalization rate, see below) at that the reserve out the likely number of real cases. Scottish COVID data for 2-17-year-old’s states: Cases (15/3/20-13/6/21): 27,323 Hospitalizations (18/3/20-16/6/21): 287.9 Hospitalization rate: 1.05% https://t.co/Oh2wAvyxfd?amp=1 As I mentioned in the articles, the situation is far from ideal and I agree that keeping borders closed to at least 23rd July when schools broke up would have be preferable. Personally, I was hoped the state could start vaccinating under 18s, but that option sadly does not appear to be an option at present. We are were we are, and to stop present not good situation getting real bad, it is critical that 2+2 high risk groups are not infected. You are right they are not in the model, but I assumed such chaps would shield during this period. I can model alternative scenarios, but if you start seeing spillage from COVID+ kids into top 6 vaccination groups the situation gets real bad real fast. [p.s. My plan was not to put the fear of God into people]. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadAsHell Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 (edited) 37 minutes ago, the stinking enigma said: https://gef.im/2021/07/21/chief-minister-feels-unsafe-with-manx-radio/ It's all a bit sir alex ferguson if you ask me. I'm not sure who that leaves to do the interviews. Is the voice of reason setting up his own youtube channel? They should empty chair him, would make his badly read speeches more bearable. Edited July 21, 2021 by MadAsHell 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apple Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/operations-cancelled-at-nobles-hospital/ So , wards full and ops cancelled. Residential home closed to admissions and visitors. And this is "living with it" is it ? Interesting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Annoymouse Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 1 hour ago, BenFairfax said: Got any question or queries happy to do my best to answer them. Is the current rate of progression not exceeding your modelled expectations? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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