TheTeapot Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 It's really funny. What a massive baby. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gladys Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Roxanne said: Good grief. That is absolutely staggering. Our CM refusing to talk to our national public service broadcaster because they reported something he didn’t like. He hasn’t spoken to them, he hasn’t lodged a complaint but instead he’s decided not to speak to them and then passive aggressively he’s told another news source about it Just to repeat, this is our Chief Minister. Staggering. Of course, the Quaylieboppers on FB think that MR should be closed for questioning that ill-advised visit. People seem to.miss which way accountability operates. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apple Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 (edited) I hear Minister was very unhappy with closures - that's not living with it may have been said. Edited July 21, 2021 by Apple Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uhtred Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 57 minutes ago, Gladys said: I am increasingly coming to the conclusion that the less Ashford "thinks", the better off we will all be. You’re assuming he has the mechanism with which to think. I wouldn’t be so sure. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcousticallyChallenged Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Roxanne said: It’s a lack of social skills and a lack of emotional intelligence. A huge ego and, like all bullies at heart, he’s a coward. It must be hard to get his head around, he can’t make people he disagrees with into burgers. 😁 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iom_dave Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, BenFairfax said: Regarding R, with regard to SEIR the useful concept is what I call 'effective R' deflecting both the organic properties of the virus, AND aspects effecting it ability to passed between host such as: i) Topological properties of the social network ii) Behaviour risk averse dynamics I got this query and few times and wrote up a general overview at: https://sites.google.com/webcabcomponents.com/seir-model-of-iom-natural-wave/home/effective-r-herd-immunity-and-seir-model?authuser=0 Which I think address (1), (2); with regard to (3) this in nothing to do with model and our local expert on testing Dr Rachel Glover @rachomics who posted plenty material here. My personal view (I have zero training in this area) if ~50% with no have symptoms and ~50% with symptoms will not get a PCR test. So I would start with a multiplier of x4 on PCR test results (if you believe them at all). Personal in terms of benchmarking model (say) I would take hospitalization data for children and put 400x multiplier (4x multiplier of 1% hospitalization rate, see below) at that the reserve out the likely number of real cases. Scottish COVID data for 2-17-year-old’s states: Cases (15/3/20-13/6/21): 27,323 Hospitalizations (18/3/20-16/6/21): 287.9 Hospitalization rate: 1.05% https://t.co/Oh2wAvyxfd?amp=1 As I mentioned in the articles, the situation is far from ideal and I agree that keeping borders closed to at least 23rd July when schools broke up would have be preferable. Personally, I was hoped the state could start vaccinating under 18s, but that option sadly does not appear to be an option at present. We are were we are, and to stop present not good situation getting real bad, it is critical that 2+2 high risk groups are not infected. You are right they are not in the model, but I assumed such chaps would shield during this period. I can model alternative scenarios, but if you start seeing spillage from COVID+ kids into top 6 vaccination groups the situation gets real bad real fast. [p.s. My plan was not to put the fear of God into people]. Maybe my point re R0 isnt quite clear. R0 is for the whole population, but you have ignored 75% of the population by removing them. The initial conditions should have "recovered"=75%, this should greatly reduce the spreading at the start. Does the model implementation let you set the "recovered" initial condition? I suspect the "explosion" in numbers in the IOM in the last couple of weeks is due to pubs/clubs and 15-30s. This will probably slow down as it sounds like pubs are shutting and people are pinging. The IOM is small enough that a couple of "super spreading" events could drive the numbers. Kids are especially difficult to model as they alternate hugely depending on school holidays. Assuming a nuclear family of 4 with two kids on summer holidays mostly in their house. Kid A infects Kid B, end of infection as the parents are immunised. I kind of feel re kids that it is hard to justify as the benefit to them is low and there are so many people over 70 in the world haven't been jabbed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenFairfax Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Annoymouse said: Is the current rate of progression not exceeding your modelled expectations? Regarding the hospitalizations at this stage, it been bang on. Please note the model is not mine the SEIR is a standard approach and applicable to crop diseases, mad cow, Ebola and now COVID. The system the 4 ODEs (after calibration) split the population in Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Removed groupings, and dynamical process describes how population moves thru these stages. I should do to big to tell you exactly the number of cases and hospitalization to expect each day. I mentioned 1,573 cases on 6th August, and 24th August 22 in Nobles. I should do all other days. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uhtred Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 13 minutes ago, MadAsHell said: They should empty chair him, would make his badly read speeches more bearable. What an absolutely petulant clown this fool Quayle is. His visit to hospice was ill-advised. MR (amazingly) reported that factually. The oaf’s sense of entitlement clearly causes him to believe he is above being questioned/challenged - as we’ve seen on multiple occasions during the briefings. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he’d called some MR head honcho into his office to bollock them privately. That’s the measure of this puffed up blimp. Whatever happens on Election Day, this clown’s departure will be the stand out good news story. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gladys Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 16 minutes ago, Apple said: https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/operations-cancelled-at-nobles-hospital/ So , wards full and ops cancelled. Residential home closed to admissions and visitors. And this is "living with it" is it ? Interesting. Due to lack of beds, with 4 covid patients? Even if you take infection control measures, is our health service really on such a knife edge? 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Annoymouse Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Gladys said: Due to lack of beds, with 4 covid patients? Even if you take infection control measures, is our health service really on such a knife edge? Wrighty did go some way to explaining the reasons earlier, apparently nothing to do with covid and everything to do with the current heat wave. I think it all depends on where the 4 covid positive patients are being kept, if they’ve still got a separate Covid ward that’s a loss of all beds within that ward, it’s likely they might just be in their own side rooms though, an easy way to isolate them from the main wards. Edited July 21, 2021 by Annoymouse 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Annoymouse Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 29 minutes ago, BenFairfax said: Regarding the hospitalizations at this stage, it been bang on. I mentioned 1,573 cases on 6th August, and 24th August 22 in Nobles. I should do all other days. 1573 being total cases? As we are likely to hit that tomorrow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thommo2010 Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 28 minutes ago, Gladys said: Due to lack of beds, with 4 covid patients? Even if you take infection control measures, is our health service really on such a knife edge? Not just the health service 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Annoymouse Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 (edited) 48 minutes ago, Gladys said: Staggering. Of course, the Quaylieboppers on FB think that MR should be closed for questioning that ill-advised visit. People seem to.miss which way accountability operates. Seems to be a lot of love for both Quayle and Ashford on FB, they can’t seem to do any wrong, I’ve no doubt people will be writing letters/emails of complaint on his behalf to Manx Radio. Edited July 21, 2021 by Annoymouse 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gladys Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 13 minutes ago, Annoymouse said: Seems to be a lot of love for both Quayle and Ashford on FB, they can’t seem to do any wrong, I’ve no doubt people will be writing letters/emails of complaint on his behalf to Manx Radio. Yes, that is why we have the bunch we have. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Mexico Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 It's worth pointing out that Quayle's meltdown over Manx Radio daring to behave like a new source wasn't an interview with another news outfit but Gef's reporting of a question asked by Chris Thomas. Who basically dug a pit for Quayle to fall into; let him do so; and then watched on with amazement he got out a spade and proceeded to dig furiously to make it deeper and deeper: 3.3. Chief Minister’s visit to Hospice – Formal complaints about reporting It's now also on Hansard, but listening gives you the full petulant self-pity. 5 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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