Ham_N_Eggs Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 18 minutes ago, Annoymouse said: Seems to be a lot of love for both Quayle and Ashford on FB, they can’t seem to do any wrong, I’ve no doubt people will be writing letters/emails of complaint on his behalf to Manx Radio. Because they were the only politicians people saw during the lockdowns they think all other politicians did nothing. Even though CoMin held their private meetings with all the Members, took their ideas, got their buy in for the big vote in Tynwald and then took all the credit on the podium. Now they're national treasures. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenFairfax Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Apple said: https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/operations-cancelled-at-nobles-hospital/ So , wards full and ops cancelled. Residential home closed to admissions and visitors. And this is "living with it" is it ? Interesting. BOJOs term "living with it", really means start natural wave until it finds an equilibrium level between the balance between societies risk tolerance and wish for freedoms. That is, in effect what herd immunity means. I calibrated a SEIR model and provided a narrative on central expectation of how this will play out over the coming weeks at: https://sites.google.com/webcabcomponents.com/seir-model-of-iom-natural-wave/home?authuser=0 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenFairfax Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Roxanne said: It’s a lack of social skills and a lack of emotional intelligence. A huge ego and, like all bullies at heart, he’s a coward. You did not mention who, but I know who you are talking about. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quilp Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said: It's worth pointing out that Quayle's meltdown over Manx Radio daring to behave like a new source wasn't an interview with another news outfit but Gef's reporting of a question asked by Chris Thomas. Who basically dug a pit for Quayle to fall into; let him do so; and then watched on with amazement he got out a spade and proceeded to dig furiously to make it deeper and deeper: 3.3. Chief Minister’s visit to Hospice – Formal complaints about reporting It's now also on Hansard, but listening gives you the full petulant self-pity. Thanks Roger. In that hit-piece, Quayle stated that he hoped the next administration would look at the law, as if he felt the law wasn't extended enough and required changing. Which law might he be referring? Is he inferring he'd like to see more social media censorship? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTeapot Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 Here's a nice chart, lift some gloom 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uhtred Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 46 minutes ago, Annoymouse said: Seems to be a lot of love for both Quayle and Ashford on FB, they can’t seem to do any wrong, I’ve no doubt people will be writing letters/emails of complaint on his behalf to Manx Radio. Which reinforces everything we know about FB. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Annoymouse Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 18 minutes ago, BenFairfax said: I calibrated a SEIR model and provided a narrative on central expectation of how this will play out over the coming weeks at: https://sites.google.com/webcabcomponents.com/seir-model-of-iom-natural-wave/home?authuser=0 Would it be possible to change the date on the header? I think it may get more interest if people thought it was current rather than for last year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cambon Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 21 minutes ago, BenFairfax said: 23 minutes ago, BenFairfax said: BOJOs term "living with it", really means start natural wave until it finds an equilibrium level between the balance between societies risk tolerance and wish for freedoms. That is, in effect what herd immunity means. I calibrated a SEIR model and provided a narrative on central expectation of how this will play out over the coming weeks at: https://sites.google.com/webcabcomponents.com/seir-model-of-iom-natural-wave/home?authuser=0 What day would you say we are on now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 It's safer to leave the island than stay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Voice of Reason Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 2 hours ago, the stinking enigma said: https://gef.im/2021/07/21/chief-minister-feels-unsafe-with-manx-radio/ It's all a bit sir alex ferguson if you ask me. I'm not sure who that leaves to do the interviews. Is the voice of reason setting up his own youtube channel? The Chief Minister has been cleared of any wrongdoing as reported by Gef. As I have mentioned before there was no “threat” made by HQ just the suggestion as that Manx Radio as the beneficiary of Government subvention (ie yours and my monies) they have a greater duty of care to report accurately and not sensationally. I would be a bit pissed off if I had been wrongly maligned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Annoymouse Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 (edited) 14 minutes ago, The Voice of Reason said: As I have mentioned before there was no “threat” made by HQ just the suggestion as that Manx Radio as the beneficiary of Government subvention (ie yours and my monies) they have a greater duty of care to report accurately and not sensationally. That sounds a bit like Donald Trump and him screaming ‘fake news’ to me. Edited July 21, 2021 by Annoymouse 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amadeus Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 Will the pingdemic affect the island? Supply lines across are apparently under a lot of strain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenFairfax Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 2 hours ago, Annoymouse said: Is the current rate of progression not exceeding your modelled expectations? Regarding cases, naturally the vast bulk are unknown and for back testing purposes pretty useless. Regarding level of hospitalisations they are exactly as expected at this stage. The level going forward is not fixed with primary determined by the level of mitigation which people choose to make, particularly 2+2 vaxed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenFairfax Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 Just now, BenFairfax said: your modelled Just to add it definitely is not my model, I just applied well known and tested approaches to calibrate the SEIR model (which will also be used by SAGE, CDC, WHO etc), general details are available here for example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compartmental_models_in_epidemiology Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenFairfax Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Cambon said: What day would you say we are on now? About day 21, with the standard deviation around this date I would estimate at 1.5-2.5 days. Model 1,573 cases 6th Aug (peak infection), 22 Nobles bed occupied 24th Aug (peak hospitalization). Key issue is 2+2 do there duty and not get infected to make the process to move toward herd immunity as painless as possible. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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