IOM Covid removing restrictions

[BenFairfax]

1 minute ago, BenFairfax said:

About day 21, with the standard deviation around this date I would estimate at 1.5-2.5 days. Model 1,573 cases 6th Aug (peak infection), 22 Nobles bed occupied 24th Aug (peak hospitalization). Key issue is 2+2 do there duty and not get infected to make the process to move toward herd immunity as painless as possible.

Would add @rachomics given samples could tell us exactly when ground zero was and were, and how wave evolved in real time. What not change is dynamic of wave, but at least high risk 2+2s have much better idea when exactly to get in bunker.

[Annoymouse]

41 minutes ago, Amadeus said:

Will the pingdemic affect the island? Supply lines across are apparently under a lot of strain. 
 

Indirectly yes, we don’t have close contacts isolating locally so if the supply is there we will be fine, obviously if the supply isn’t there we will be knackered.

[NoTailT]

Apparently there's now a minor in ICU.

[BenFairfax]

1 hour ago, Annoymouse said:

Would it be possible to change the date on the header? I think it may get more interest if people thought it was current rather than for last year.

Thank you so much, I am tracking user analytics and thought average reading time was lower than I expected. Amazing never noticed that, I am getting bit tired after 2 weeks, all day everyday doing SEIR modeling. Not moaning, the model really is very nice and lot interesting aspects and interactions to consider. Also hopefully useful to others. 

[BenFairfax]

6 minutes ago, NoTailT said:

Apparently there's now a minor in ICU.

Really very sad news, and as a parent my heart goes out to the parents and family concerned.

[BenFairfax]

1 hour ago, Cambon said:

 

What day would you say we are on now? 

Day 21, with standard deviation of 1.5-2.5 days. 6th Aug expecting 1,573 cases (that cases in real world not what Lord Ashford put in the dashboard) [peak exposure], 24th Aug 22 bed occupied on Nobles [peak hospitalization]. Case highly confident it, regarding bed may slight skewed upside but assuming 9.2 average stay which is likely too high if vast bulk are 2-17. But for planning purposes you need to plan for reasonable worst case scenario and hope for the best. 

[BenFairfax]

3 hours ago, Annoymouse said:

1573 being total cases? As we are likely to hit that tomorrow?

No no no..... We are not talking about little bit of wind, this is the big one, batten down the hatches. The number of 1,573 expected infections will occur in the real world within a 24 hour period. If they are all kids ~50% be asymptotic and I imagine ~50% of them will not be bad enough to seek a test, so down to 393 who would potentially seek a PCR test. Just mark those numbers down on napkin come back in 14 days.

I should produce a grid will predicted cases and hospitalizations for the entire period, and publish it. So far the hospitalization level has been exactly as I expected.

[Annoymouse]

12 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

The number of 1,573 expected infections will occur in the real world within a 24 hour period.

Right, my confusion was they can’t actually test that many in 24hrs, but I see what your saying, that’s how many are likely to be infected regardless of what the daily testing says, interesting stuff.

On our actual testing platform what is the highest number of active cases we will be likely to see? These 200+cases a day will be dropping off just as rapidly as they went on in 3 weeks time, I can’t see the active cases going much higher than say 3000-4000 active cases personally, that’s assuming we have consistent numbers of 200+ each day.

Edited July 21, 2021 by Annoymouse

[Hugh G Rection]

57 minutes ago, NoTailT said:

Apparently there's now a minor in ICU.

Any proof? Where did you get this info from if you can say? 
 

not being arsey just genuinely wondering! 

[David Gashfed]

1 hour ago, NoTailT said:

Apparently there's now a minor in ICU.

I hope this is not a rumour, I personally don’t think you should be writing messages on here saying ”apparently” regarding a minors health. Especially if it is not your child, very disrespectful. I understand that people may want to know what is going on, but it’s abit touchy regarding children. 

[BenFairfax]

35 minutes ago, Annoymouse said:

Right, my confusion was they can’t actually test that many in 24hrs, but I see what your saying, that’s how many are likely to be infected regardless of what the daily testing says, interesting stuff.

On our actual testing platform what is the highest number of active cases we will be likely to see? These 200+cases a day will be dropping off just as rapidly as they went on in 3 weeks time, I can’t see the active cases going much higher than say 3000-4000 active cases personally, that’s assuming we have consistent numbers of 200+ each day.

When testing COVID+ results were a realistic reflection of reality (positivity rate under 5%, ideally 2%) then I used them for calibration purposes. Now I think they offer little value, and in a similar vein, track&track has an impossible task. Saying that, we should undertake some surveillance to ensure energy (so to speak) getting pushed into the Natural Wave, with associated future DHSC demand is balanced against what DHSC can offer. You can take more gas out of system with mitigations, which within model will be reflected by reduction in the 'effective R'. 

The testing seems to max out at about 800 a day. So the maximum results will come down to the positivity rate, and higher ever record positivity rate globally , ASAIK was in Indian town Maharashtra which managed 24.5%:

https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-outbreak/story/why-maharashtra-kerala-continue-to-record-high-covid-19-cases-1817732-2021-06-22

If we achieved this we could have 196 in a day. Last week the IOM achieve a positivity rate of 16.5%, and over the weekend we managed to get over 22% This is not a good thing, and shows testing really is falling over. The WHO back in May 2020, stated unless positivity rate has been under 5% for the past 5 days (as I recall) then a lockdown should not be eased. To obtain such positivity rates as case in IoM recently and India, you need to use "screening" which means you will have quite pronounced symptoms to even to able to have a test. Sadly a given number of COVID+ patients will require hospitalization, and this data is thankfully reliable and certain more useful now in terms of calibrating any model.

This may seen mad what is going on, but there is some rationale to it. If we thru this wave have 7-8K individuals which we can add to the existing 2+2s, then we will have more than 85% of population who are 2+2 equivalent. At this point we should achieve Herd Immunity in a context where personal freedoms are maintained against an acceptable risk of infection. We may have COVID+ getting off boat and create a localized wave say within a school but nation wide wave would not occur (as least with the existing variants).

Please note existing 2+2 becoming infected does not help this process in any way and for the benefit of existing 2+2 should take steps to avoid placing themselves at risk of infection. This particularly applies to 2+2s in high risk groups (say top 6 vaccination groups). Naturally anyone who is eligible to vaccination should take up the offer (and yes I do think anti-vaxxers are nuts). That right 2+2s can serve their country by staying in the house and eating pizza, watch TV, or like me rant on Manx Forums and Twitter all day (which in terms of COVID mitigation is perfect), if forced to go out take mitigations (mask, avoid crowds, wash hands, you know the drill). This will not go on forever, and next 4 weeks will see bulk of infections occur.

[BenFairfax]

3 hours ago, Uhtred said:

Which reinforces everything we know about FB.

Sorry to ask, but I know nothing about Manx FB but if go over their, to rant where are the best IoM COVID places to hang out. MF and Twitter lot more intuitive.

[immortalpuppet]

It’s not a rumour, family friends child not in a good way at all in ICU.

[philwebs]

Speaking out of turn has the local medical profession looked into:

"ivermectin zinc ionophore"

and have they recommended as a preventative measure Vit D  Zinc and a zinc ionophore?

I assume they are not allowed to do so.

 

[TheTeapot]

Animal worming tablets are not a magic cure