IOM Covid removing restrictions

[AcousticallyChallenged]

2 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

PowerBI is still broken so they've put up a screenshot of latest case counts.

Though the numbers don't add up.

2994 total today, 2569 total yesterday.

2994-2569 is 425. Am I missing something?

Edit: Mad as hell seems to have beaten me to it.

Edited July 22, 2021 by AcousticallyChallenged

[Nom de plume]

1 minute ago, MadAsHell said:

Just the 425...

 

[BenFairfax]

41 minutes ago, Ramseyboi said:

Scotland did of course publicly attribute at least part of the increase in children in hospital with COVID meaning more kids being out of the house as restrictions eased and hurting themselves doing things kids do.

I talk about these issues here:

https://sites.google.com/webcabcomponents.com/seir-model-of-iom-natural-wave/home/effective-r-herd-immunity-and-seir-model

In particular:

"In a similar theme the topological properties of the social network in which the members are will affect the effective R. These ideas also have a very practical spin off regarding groups being able to design their network to reduce the effective R. Lets take example of care home on the IoM many of which allow only one named person who can visit each resident. This move reduces the number of social connections into the home, and in so doing cuts the number of paths the virus could take into the home. To reduce risk again, you could restrict further to allowing only the postman to connect the care home with the outside world. Which again would reduce the effective R within the care home.

The behaviour risk averse dynamics will be chaotic over the entire population, with sharp swings as subgroups and/or individuals reach their personal risk tolerance thresholds. There is a new emerging subject of topological data science, which in principle could be applied to discover invariants and underlying measure of connectivity within social networks. Technology firms study human network behaviour and connectivity very closely, to do so is complex, time-consuming and data intensive. However, for our purposes it suffices to assume that there exists some average level of risk aversion (over a given period), an average degree of social connectivity (over the same period) and naturally the virus has its organic ability to infect others (same in all contexts and time periods)."

 

I consider the inverse problem and used historical data to reverse out an 'effective R'. Love to get Warwick University model to compare what they did for IoM.

[BenFairfax]

3 minutes ago, iom_dave said:

The reason that we are not querying R37=1.1 is that R0=3 is the cause of the explosion, I think that is first order issue with the model.  The model needs R0 to be representative of transmission between member of the population, when 75% of the population is immune then you need to adjust R0 (or the model initial values).  There is a huge difference between the two approaches.  Going back to basic principles on R0

Current state of the iom, assuming R0=4 and one large population

1st gen A gets covid, meets B1, B2, B3 ad B4. B2-4 are vaccinated, only B1 gets covid.

2st gen B1 meets C1, C2, C3, C4... and so only one person if gen gets covid.

Your model instead assumes with R=3 and none of the vaccinated meet the infected

1st gen A gets covid, meets B1, B2, B3. No one is vaccinated everyone gets covid, the number with covid explodes.

The main people the infected (kids) interact with are their parents (particularly in the summer holidays), and they are vaccinated, this will hugely slow down the spread.

The reason I suspect there has been an outbreak is that a few 2+2 people with covid have silently spread it amongst the iom population, no one really noticed for a few weeks until it started to infect enough to be picked up, then people got worried.  Then everyone started to get tested and now there are loads being reported.  Hopefully now people will start taking some sensible measures and the infection rate will drop.

I wish they hadn't introduced 2+2 at the end of June as could have been avoided so more adults could have been vaccinated but I think the model is giving overly scary predictions.  These models are hugely sensitive to R0 and the assumptions you make about the population mixing.  I suspect that as the IOM has a higher % vaccine coverage than the UK it will do better than the UK.

 

Dave, I just do not have time to reply. The IoM has 1 Math's PhD me and 85K residents. You can apply what is referral to as topological data science, as used to technology company's, that was not practical in time I had, also not necessary.

[AcousticallyChallenged]

Would 425 positives in a day push us to world beating positivity figures? Given that testing seems to be fairly consistent.

The dashboard isn't fully back yet.

[Utah 01]

4 hours ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

But, no. Utah has decreed they are silly. 

You really should read what is actually written (not only by me on numerous occasions but by others as well) rather than interpret what is written to meet a mental model of your world.

My 'silliness' is a pure fabrication of your mind - don't attribute traits to others that have no justification whatsoever aside from your distorted perception.

[Utah 01]

1 hour ago, asitis said:

Government say we are fully open but the reality is some distance from that !

'We' are now descending rapidly into the realms of people making up rules as they go along without any rhyme or reason - a recipe for disaster.

[Roger Mexico]

1 minute ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

Would 425 positives in a day push us to world beating positivity figures? Given that testing seems to be fairly consistent.

The dashboard isn't fully back yet.

It's bonkers.  Unless they've suddenly worked out how to double the number of tests we're talking about a rate of over 50%.  The hospitalisation rate is also lower than you would expect - about 0.3% rather than at least twice that that you see in other highly-vaccinated countries.

I'm beginning to wonder if the lab is producing  some false positives.  These ought to be near impossible unless there's cross-contamination, so maybe that is what is happening.

[AcousticallyChallenged]

2 minutes ago, Utah 01 said:

You really should read what is actually written (not only by me on numerous occasions but by others as well) rather than interpret what is written to meet a mental model of your world.

My 'silliness' is a pure fabrication of your mind - don't attribute traits to others that have no justification whatsoever aside from your distorted perception.

 

In the case you're replying to, you said that it being 30c here is no different to jetting off to somewhere warm. I pointed out why that is not equivalent to the same temperatures here, and why it is in fact a concern for the vulnerable, and why, as a set of Isles, we seem to complain about the heat when it's cooler than abroad.

I never called you silly, merely highlighted that you tend to take a ridiculing tone to that which you disagree with. See your reference to 'nanny state spoon feeding'.

[Roger Mexico]

3 minutes ago, Utah 01 said:

'We' are now descending rapidly into the realms of people making up rules as they go along without any rhyme or reason - a recipe for disaster.

Isn't "people making up rules as they go along" just the same as letting people take responsibility and make their own decisions?  The sort of thing you and other have been demanding for ages.

[AcousticallyChallenged]

1 minute ago, Roger Mexico said:

Isn't "people making up rules as they go along" just the same as letting people take responsibility and make their own decisions?  The sort of thing you and other have been demanding for ages.

Ah, but now Utah is being told to do that, and that simply won't do from the Nanny State.

[iom_dave]

4 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

Dave, I just do not have time to reply. The IoM has 1 Math's PhD me and 85K residents. You can apply what is referral to as topological data science, as used to technology company's, that was not practical in time I had, also not necessary.

That is quite a reply, I feel I'm asking a reasonable question, you seem to be applying the model incorrectly and failing to explain in layman's terms why that is acceptable.  I understand that a lot of people are stressed at the moment.  Does you model not approximate what I described above, which isn't the situation given the vaccination status?

Btw, in the past I have used these sort of models for foot and mouth, my conclusion then that they are hugely sensitive to the underlying assumptions, hence the questioning around R0 and stratifying the population.

[Boris Johnson]

23 minutes ago, iom_dave said:

The reason that we are not querying R37=1.1 is that R0=3 is the cause of the explosion, I think that is first order issue with the model.  The model needs R0 to be representative of transmission between member of the population, when 75% of the population is immune then you need to adjust R0 (or the model initial values).  There is a huge difference between the two approaches.  Going back to basic principles on R0

Current state of the iom, assuming R0=4 and one large population

1st gen A gets covid, meets B1, B2, B3 ad B4. B2-4 are vaccinated, only B1 gets covid.

2st gen B1 meets C1, C2, C3, C4... and so only one person if gen gets covid.

Your model instead assumes with R=3 and none of the vaccinated meet the infected

1st gen A gets covid, meets B1, B2, B3. No one is vaccinated everyone gets covid, the number with covid explodes.

The main people the infected (kids) interact with are their parents (particularly in the summer holidays), and they are vaccinated, this will hugely slow down the spread.

The reason I suspect there has been an outbreak is that a few 2+2 people with covid have silently spread it amongst the iom population, no one really noticed for a few weeks until it started to infect enough to be picked up, then people got worried.  Then everyone started to get tested and now there are loads being reported.  Hopefully now people will start taking some sensible measures and the infection rate will drop.

I wish they hadn't introduced 2+2 at the end of June as could have been avoided so more adults could have been vaccinated but I think the model is giving overly scary predictions.  These models are hugely sensitive to R0 and the assumptions you make about the population mixing.  I suspect that as the IOM has a higher % vaccine coverage than the UK it will do better than the UK.

 

Fair point but the UK are still taking measures against the spread, the IOM is not, at all, it is like Covid never happened...............

That is the problem

[wrighty]

29 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

Dave, I just do not have time to reply. The IoM has 1 Math's PhD me and 85K residents. You can apply what is referral to as topological data science, as used to technology company's, that was not practical in time I had, also not necessary.

I know there’s at least one other maths PhD on the island, so that statement is as precise as your model. 

[iom_dave]

8 minutes ago, Boris Johnson said:

Fair point but the UK are still taking measures against the spread, the IOM is not, at all, it is like Covid never happened...............

That is the problem

Not sure in reality that much is happening in the uk - there is still the tube being rammed everyday etc.  The Isle of Man has a much lower density of population so it naturally has social distancing compared to cities.