wrighty Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 12 minutes ago, iom_dave said: That is quite a reply, I feel I'm asking a reasonable question, you seem to be applying the model incorrectly and failing to explain in layman's terms why that is acceptable. I understand that a lot of people are stressed at the moment. Does you model not approximate what I described above, which isn't the situation given the vaccination status? Btw, in the past I have used these sort of models for foot and mouth, my conclusion then that they are hugely sensitive to the underlying assumptions, hence the questioning around R0 and stratifying the population. A sensitivity analysis should be a part of any mathematical model. I did a bit of it for Ben’s model earlier. If R is increased by 0.5 (so about 15%) max bed occupancy doubles. That is a very sensitive input variable. As Ben himself points out, the other major flaw is in his model R suddenly falls to 1.1 at day 37. That basically indicates lockdown. The model I’ve used over the past year has a gradually decreasing R as immunity builds up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SimonBradshaw Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 Just watching the briefing. I'm relatively new to all this but my understanding is that the unwillingness of Tynwald to agree to hear Supplementary Order Paper No 2 means that any procedural amendment to borders policy cannot be undertaken over the summer months (ie until Tynwald subsequently meets) as this paper would have given authority for such changes and no journalist has picked up on this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the stinking enigma Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 I think i have had too much sun 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boris Johnson Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, iom_dave said: Not sure in reality that much is happening in the uk - there is still the tube being rammed everyday etc. The Isle of Man has a much lower density of population so it naturally has social distancing compared to cities. That is 100% not true, if you go into a club or mass gathering you have to provide a negative test result The public transport is mostly mask only and masks are being widely enforced in uk shops. Because we did not have the same level of infection before our politicos seen to think we can do without any mitigation. "Mitigation" which the gov keep telling us we are doing................................ Listening to the press convo it is clear the MBE should have pursued a career in second hand car sales. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Non-Believer Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 Still room for more sangria though.... 😁 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iom_dave Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Boris Johnson said: That is 100% not true, if you go into a club or mass gathering you have to provide a negative test result The public transport is mostly mask only and masks are being widely enforced in uk shops. Because we did not have the same level of infection before our politicos seen to think we can do without any mitigation. "Mitigation" which the gov keep telling us we are doing................................ Listening to the press convo it is clear the MBE should have pursued a career in second hand car sales. Maybe not 100% true, but did you see the Euro final - that was crazy, put 3/4 of the iom in stadium and have a riot! The government over here shouldn't have relaxed the May restrictions until the 18 year olds had a chance to be 2+2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boris Johnson Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 (edited) 16 minutes ago, wrighty said: I know there’s at least one other maths PhD on the island, so that statement is as precise as your model. Pulls up a seat and some dark matter to snack on. Edited July 22, 2021 by Boris Johnson 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boris Johnson Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 1 minute ago, iom_dave said: Maybe not 100% true, but did you see the Euro final - that was crazy, put 3/4 of the iom in stadium and have a riot! The government over here shouldn't have relaxed the May restrictions until the 18 year olds had a chance to be 2+2 That's my point, the 60k that were there had previously to prove they were Covid free. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcousticallyChallenged Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, Boris Johnson said: That is 100% not true, if you go into a club or mass gathering you have to provide a negative test result The public transport is mostly mask only and masks are being widely enforced in uk shops. Because we did not have the same level of infection before our politicos seen to think we can do without any mitigation. "Mitigation" which the gov keep telling us we are doing................................ Listening to the press convo it is clear the MBE should have pursued a career in second hand car sales. We're 'learning to live with it', which seems to be letting it rip and seeing what happens. I think the situation would have to drastically change for anything in CoMin's approach to change now. No sense in rocking the boat or bruising egos. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iom_dave Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 9 minutes ago, wrighty said: A sensitivity analysis should be a part of any mathematical model. I did a bit of it for Ben’s model earlier. If R is increased by 0.5 (so about 15%) max bed occupancy doubles. That is a very sensitive input variable. As Ben himself points out, the other major flaw is in his model R suddenly falls to 1.1 at day 37. That basically indicates lockdown. The model I’ve used over the past year has a gradually decreasing R as immunity builds up. Yes, that is how it would would. I think a good question is why does the iom need a model. As a first order approximation, is max English hospital beds / 500 not approximate enough? Based on the below, that would be at approximately 5 beds a day. England is more crowded and has less vaccine uptake. These guys are far more qualified that anyone on here and are being subject to peer review by much more qualified people: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001172/S1302_University_of_Warwick_Road_Map_Scenarios_and_Sensitivity_Step_4.2__6_July_2021__1_.pdf Occam's Razor... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevster Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 1 hour ago, AcousticallyChallenged said: To be fair to them, half the stuff they've moved to is hosted by Microsoft. It's just an Office 365 form for a vaccination booking. Something has really broken with the PowerBI dashboard though. An Akamai outage is being reported and MS use them 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
De nada Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 Sunningdale care home next? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
display name Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 57 minutes ago, BenFairfax said: Dave, I just do not have time to reply. The IoM has 1 Math's PhD me and 85K residents. You can apply what is referral to as topological data science, as used to technology company's, that was not practical in time I had, also not necessary. You're Count Arthur Strong and I claim my £5.00 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the stinking enigma Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 18 minutes ago, Roxanne said: You and me both. I'm told chapstick can help 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Annoymouse Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 Wow David Ashford actually thinks our Covid dashboard displays more data than most other jurisdictions, the man actually believes his own lies. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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