IOM Covid removing restrictions

[the stinking enigma]

Site down, they didn't want to have to defend those figures. In 1918 this would have been collated by a nice old granny working part time. We'll have an IT staff of hundreds on it. 

[BenFairfax]

34 minutes ago, wrighty said:

I know there’s at least one other maths PhD on the island, so that statement is as precise as your model. 

That's great, who is it, tell them to ping me.

[AlanShimmin]

4 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

That's great, who is it, tell them to ping me.

Haven't you heard of the pingdemic?

[alpha-acid]

14 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

That's great, who is it, tell them to ping me.

2 Maths Ph. D's wonder how many Biochemistry Ph. D's besides me

[AcousticallyChallenged]

It looks like the UK have sprung ahead of us, their growth in case rates is really starting to slow.

Whether that will persist whilst they're open is a different question, but it looks promising.

[BenFairfax]

31 minutes ago, wrighty said:

A sensitivity analysis should be a part of any mathematical model.  I did a bit of it for Ben’s model earlier.  If R is increased by 0.5 (so about 15%) max bed occupancy doubles.  That is a very sensitive input variable.  As Ben himself points out, the other major flaw is in his model R suddenly falls to 1.1 at day 37.  That basically indicates lockdown.  The model I’ve used over the past year has a gradually decreasing R as immunity builds up.

The shift is to reflect risk aversion and change in social networks, which will be continuous, i.e. across the curve. Agree sensitivity analysis et al, would be useful, but the broader picture is as described. Ah! I forgot you are a SEIR sceptic. Hewitt went off on mathematical sceptic rant in presser. With narrative produced it was to make in accessible, and show scale of wave over 0 jab population, could pose a threat to the 2+2 High Risk. Since main point as I said above is:

Members of Top 6 2+2 vaccination groups should get in bunker for next 4 weeks.

I did not cover deaths, but what do you recon would be number body bags DHSC need to get in if (a) this happens, or (b) if this did not happen. I think we can agree (a) > > (b). And that statement true under stress testing scenario of the sensitivity matrix.

Who is Math's PhD on island, please DM me details, if he Cambridge chap ever better. Really hope it not some complete muppet who brought a PhD in his 30-40s, from a Poly to make CV look better. That does not count.

[Sorry about the harsh, confrontational tone, I am trying to write in the Manx Forum f**k you and f**k the horse you came here on style, so to speak]

[wrighty]

29 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

 

Who is Math's PhD on island, please DM me details, if he Cambridge chap ever better. Really hope it not some complete muppet who brought a PhD in his 30-40s, from a Poly to make CV look better. That does not count.

[Sorry about the harsh, confrontational tone, I am trying to write in the Manx Forum f**k you and f**k the horse you came here on style, so to speak]

Your tone does you no favours, to be honest. I’ll ask my friend if he wants his details passing on. I doubt he will.

[Ramseyboi]

1 hour ago, wrighty said:

I know there’s at least one other maths PhD on the island, so that statement is as precise as your model. 

I don’t know what the statistical possibility of logarithm to the power of  four the chances of this statement being g complete turd to the power of three are?

I can however tell you that if you think you are unique on the island by having a PhD in maths then you need a better calculator/abacus/hand

[Ramseyboi]

Just now, Ramseyboi said:

I don’t know what the statistical possibility of logarithm to the power of  four the chances of this statement being g complete turd to the power of three are?

I can however tell you that if you think you are unique on the island by having a PhD in maths then you need a better calculator/abacus/hand

This was clearly meant to quote the guy who falsely believes he is the only PhD in maths who lives here rather than wrighty 

[BenFairfax]

1 hour ago, iom_dave said:

That is quite a reply, I feel I'm asking a reasonable question, you seem to be applying the model incorrectly and failing to explain in layman's terms why that is acceptable.  I understand that a lot of people are stressed at the moment.  Does you model not approximate what I described above, which isn't the situation given the vaccination status?

Btw, in the past I have used these sort of models for foot and mouth, my conclusion then that they are hugely sensitive to the underlying assumptions, hence the questioning around R0 and stratifying the population.

Dave in normal times I run a Math's Society here, we always looking for speakers, if you put something together on foot and mouth model etc, them maybe you could give a talk. 

In the mean time the real issue is, what will number of body bags DHSC needs to buy if:

a) Wave goes thru population and 2+2 high risk do NOT do isolate

b) Wave goes thru population and 2+2 high risk do isolate

My hypothesis is:

(a) > > (b)

[BenFairfax]

8 minutes ago, Ramseyboi said:

9 minutes ago, Ramseyboi said:

I don’t know what the statistical possibility of logarithm to the power of  four the chances of this statement being g complete turd to the power of three are?

I can however tell you that if you think you are unique on the island by having a PhD in maths then you need a better calculator/abacus/hand

Who is this person? I am not going to knock on 20K doors to ask, I am very public and I easily contactable, and would be good to touch base with this person, exchange notes etc.

[BenFairfax]

12 minutes ago, Ramseyboi said:

This was clearly meant to quote the guy who falsely believes he is the only PhD in maths who lives here rather than wrighty 

With @wrighty et al, I am not trying to argue from authority (as endless happens here on Isle of Man): 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority

@DaveIOM You should be aware Manx Forums is the roughest social media venue in the IoM. I was told that people regularly get f**ked up the arse without vaseline in this place, and the only roughly venue is the freemasons.

[wrighty]

9 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

 

In the mean time the real issue is, what will number of body bags DHSC needs to buy if:

a) Wave goes thru population and 2+2 high risk do NOT do isolate

b) Wave goes thru population and 2+2 high risk do isolate

My hypothesis is:

(a) > > (b)

Have you factored in that by shielding, some of these high risk 2+2 might succumb to other conditions and not get treatment for them? I’m not as certain as you seem to be that (a)>>(b), especially if you’re using ‘>>’ to mean what I interpret it to be.

[BenFairfax]

28 minutes ago, wrighty said:

Your tone does you no favours, to be honest. I’ll ask my friend if he wants his details passing on. I doubt he will.

Just trying to blend in with Manx Forum crowd. This is not the place for airs and graces, it starts with all that by closing time when it all kicks off someone going to put me in hospital. Which is definitely not where I want to end up, laying in bed next door to COVID+ patients.

[John Wright]

4 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

Just trying to blend in with Manx Forum crowd. This is not the place for airs and graces, it starts with all that by closing time when it all kicks off someone going to put me in hospital. Which is definitely not where I want to end up, laying in bed next door to COVID+ patients.

Moderator message. Stop being a dick. You’re being deliberately provocative and attempting to show off.