IOM Covid removing restrictions

[Non-Believer]

22 minutes ago, Roxanne said:

And after it’s all done (and it will be done - like a cold) every country will be skint so maybe it won’t matter so much any more.  

Although some concerns are doing very, very well out of it of course...

[Gladys]

So, does anyone know the outcome of the Comin meeting this evening?

Not sure what they were considering after Tynwald,  but HQ referred to it in the briefing. 

 

[AlanShimmin]

1 minute ago, Gladys said:

So, does anyone know the outcome of the Comin meeting this evening?

Not sure what they were considering after Tynwald,  but HQ referred to it in the briefing. 

 

Best beach for the Comen nudist BBQ

[AcousticallyChallenged]

29 minutes ago, Roxanne said:

This would be a wonderful opportunity for someone to ask Dr Glover what her opinion is on this matter. 

I trust Wrighty’s basic principle that we’re going to get through this, and reading the maths stuff and hypothesis on here has been fascinating and thought provoking, but you know, this is a bloody gamble and frankly I’d like to hear an expert in genomics telling us the best way to go about it so we don’t all get deaded  

Its madness not to even consult with a local world expert, when the government are making decisions that are already seriously impacting the lives of many over here who are struggling to cope  Also decisions about the forthcoming weeks/months.  Crucial pandemic type stuff. Stuff she’s really good at. 
 

It really is time this crap was sorted but, when we have a CM who goes in the huff over a radio report and spits the dummy publicly then it’s not hard to see why an easily sorted issue (whether she worked for them or not. Yes, that’s ALL it was) turned into a HUGE affair.  A clerical matter perhaps but somehow it escalated into a PR disaster and an embarrassment all round.  That was down to him for sure, backed up by his yes-man Ashie  

They're  going to have to raid the piggie bank once more, and start keeping folks afloat  

Hopefully this will be the last time they’ll have to do it  

And after it’s all done (and it will be done - like a cold) every country will be skint so maybe it won’t matter so much any more.  

I have to say, I like wrighty's balanced view leaning towards optimistic. There are many medics and epidemiologists who focus on a 'reasonable worst case' scenario, which can be quite gloomy.

Dr Glover isn't an epidemiologist, and she herself will be the first to tell you that. She's also the only scientist they have on the EAG, to the best of my knowledge. I still feel that the EAG are viewed as a thorn in the side, rather than as a useful route for advice.

It's hard to think of a time when we haven't been caught on the back foot. We knew that we were headed for emergence of community transmission, why were we not ready for it? The poor folks at 111 are being worked to the bone. Businesses are shut trying to do the right thing. But we're simply told everything is fine and to crack on down the pub. Or, be careful if you fancy it.

Edited July 22, 2021 by AcousticallyChallenged

[Gladys]

6 minutes ago, AlanShimmin said:

Best beach for the Comen nudist BBQ

Do tell, so I can avoid, the dogs love a BBQ. 

[Annoymouse]

16 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

I have to say, I like wrighty's balanced view leaning towards optimistic. There are many medics and epidemiologists who focus on a 'reasonable worst case' scenario, which can be quite gloomy.

They need to be looking further ahead, as do the media, all the questions surround what happens tomorrow or next week, well what’s the long term plan? what are they expecting to see? more importantly is this actually sustainable?

What was wrong with the previous way of things, following the UK perhaps 4-6 weeks behind, it gave as the chance to see what was happening and react accordingly, instead we effectively went into it both blind and head first? why?

 Ashford said on this latest press briefing (a pointless waste of a press briefing for everyone involved IMO) a friend of his has caught the virus 4 times, well doesn’t that go some way to suggest that herd immunity doesn’t work, so what’s going to happen when we get to winter? They do know the virus hits harder in winter don’t they!?

[snowman]

When is the lounge opening at the airport?

[wrighty]

4 minutes ago, Annoymouse said:

 

 Ashford said on this latest press briefing (a pointless waste of a press briefing for everyone involved IMO) a friend of his has caught the virus 4 times, well doesn’t that go some way to suggest that herd immunity doesn’t work, so what’s going to happen when we get to winter? They do know the virus hits harder in winter don’t they!?

There’s still much confusion, evidently, over the term ‘herd immunity’. David Ashford referred to it as a ‘scientific theory’.  It isn’t a theory (something which is right or wrong, and can be tested by experiment), it’s a concept. I think the reason everyone is so keen to dismiss it is because it’s now associated with Bojo’s “let everyone get it and only over 80s die” plan for the pandemic. Herd immunity is nothing to do with whether you can get a disease more than once, it’s simply a state where the overall level of resistance to a disease in the community means R is 1 or less, and epidemics are not sustained. 
 

In covid, immunity, from either infection or vaccination, is not 100%. But it’s clear that immunity gives good protection against serious disease or death, and reduces transmission. Come winter, just about everyone will have either had covid, been vaxxed, or both.  I’m hopeful it’ll become the next common cold virus. Even the previous coronavirus cold causing virus can be serious for some, it’s just that we didn’t really worry about it. 

[Gladys]

Mr Ashford is a great concern, he makes statements as fact, but they are easily discredited.  Today, we give the best testing and case info to the public.  No, just look at Gibraltar. Apart from that, what we have is so fundamentally flawed it doesn't  even add up, consistently.

I was reminded of Eric Morecambe's right notes but in the wrong order. 

[Annoymouse]

27 minutes ago, wrighty said:

In covid, immunity, from either infection or vaccination, is not 100%. But it’s clear that immunity gives good protection against serious disease or death, and reduces transmission. Come winter, just about everyone will have either had covid, been vaxxed, or both.  I’m hopeful it’ll become the next common cold virus. Even the previous coronavirus cold causing virus can be serious for some, it’s just that we didn’t really worry about it. 

If someone healthy gets the virus 4 times in say a year and is otherwise healthy that’s fair enough, but what happens if it’s someone (like the kid currently in icu for example) who finds Covid crippling every time, that isn’t sustainable, that is quite literally survival of the fittest and no quality of life whatsoever.

[TheTeapot]

4 times!

What a load of shit.

[Annoymouse]

3 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

4 times!

What a load of shit.

Welcome to the world of David Ashford, how does it make sense to say that in one breath and then use that as a good example of living with the virus, does he really think that’s a good message to be sending out?

He was also more concerned about the abuse of 111/testing staff than he was about the poor kid in ICU, I was expecting the ‘sad news’ to be of the ICU case, but no. To be fair everyone that was angry and abusive towards 111/testing staff should be directing their anger towards the likes of Ashford who’ve made this happen, not people who are simply doing what they’ve been instructed to do.

[BenFairfax]

40 minutes ago, wrighty said:

How did you derive that?

It goes back to the estimate of who/when/where was ground zero. In the model I calibrated we assume you have a single seeder, that may have been case, perhaps not, but if we assume we did then the SD estimate comes about from probabilistic model of the individual and whether they went on to seed the deterministic SEIR wave. Because social networks number of connection growth is a power function once you get past few, certainly 10-20 cases, the number connection so large the wave will not fizzle out, but with very small numbers you have probabilistic effects. (Hence SD estimate of zero date)

For small number of cases consider each individual event use stochastic (probability) model where in effect you use a weighted dice to decide for the small number of parties, whether an interaction is an infection or a removal. Probability will depend on transmission rate, removal rate, number of infected people, and susceptible people. The situation such as IoM where I assume single seeder, the probability of that seeder fizzling out or generate enough case to get SEIR wave is around 50% Historically this is exactly what we have experienced in IoM, around 50% seeding events have fizzled out. The situation of intrahousehold transmission displayed in real world (WHO etc have data sets) illustrates how this plays out. We know empirically the risk of COIVD infection if another household member is COVID+ is about 50%.

You missed thing regarding assumption of a single seeder event. As Jersey data shows '1d & release' will stop ~80% COVID+ who enter IoM. Hence, we have seeders continuously being introduced since ground zero, this would have effect of widening base in incubation period (stochastic period) before get inflection into exponential growth. Also means if social network is weakly disconnected the random seeder will eventually seed various parts of network. This issue is more of unknow than the variance of zero date, and will add more juice to the ensuing wave.

 

[BenFairfax]

6 minutes ago, Annoymouse said:

He was also more concerned about the abuse of 111/testing staff than he was about the poor kid in ICU

I thought exactly the same, people doing their job in near impossible circumstances at grandstand, path lab, and Nobles, do not deserve to get abuse. However, they would agree with us that a member of the community being moved to ICU (as dashboard states) deserve a few words of best wishes.

[BenFairfax]

1 hour ago, wrighty said:

There’s still much confusion, evidently, over the term ‘herd immunity’. David Ashford referred to it as a ‘scientific theory’.  It isn’t a theory (something which is right or wrong, and can be tested by experiment), it’s a concept. I think the reason everyone is so keen to dismiss it is because it’s now associated with Bojo’s “let everyone get it and only over 80s die” plan for the pandemic. Herd immunity is nothing to do with whether you can get a disease more than once, it’s simply a state where the overall level of resistance to a disease in the community means R is 1 or less, and epidemics are not sustained. 
 

In covid, immunity, from either infection or vaccination, is not 100%. But it’s clear that immunity gives good protection against serious disease or death, and reduces transmission. Come winter, just about everyone will have either had covid, been vaxxed, or both.  I’m hopeful it’ll become the next common cold virus. Even the previous coronavirus cold causing virus can be serious for some, it’s just that we didn’t really worry about it. 

I agree, the notion of Herd Immunity is important in itself and important with regard to understanding the present approach. I see Herd Immunity in effect as the equilibrium point which will be found for the Natural Wave were the risk tolerance of the population is balance against the aggregate desire of personal freedoms.

I have had queries around Herd Immunity a number of times and this morning tried to explain in terms of analogy with road safety measures: