BenFairfax Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 4 hours ago, AlanShimmin said: The science modelling can be ok. It's just when the people doing it act like proper bell ends The point is the math's is an objective reflection of reality, whether I am bell end, troll whatever it still stands. Not sure what the rules are here anymore has this place gone upmarket. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenFairfax Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 6 hours ago, wrighty said: Have you factored in that by shielding, some of these high risk 2+2 might succumb to other conditions and not get treatment for them? I’m not as certain as you seem to be that (a)>>(b), especially if you’re using ‘>>’ to mean what I interpret it to be. My effort was to understand the natural wave dynamic, the medical issues I will leave to the medics. You mentioned but cannot find Long COVID considerations, which for under 50s (not grp4 or 6) is the most important consideration. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Old Git Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 (edited) Kath Morrison (Photos) on Facebook saying covid has claimed a family member. My thoughts are with her, John and family. Edited July 23, 2021 by The Old Git 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrighty Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 5 hours ago, BenFairfax said: It goes back to the estimate of who/when/where was ground zero. In the model I calibrated we assume you have a single seeder, that may have been case, perhaps not, but if we assume we did then the SD estimate comes about from probabilistic model of the individual and whether they went on to seed the deterministic SEIR wave. Because social networks number of connection growth is a power function once you get past few, certainly 10-20 cases, the number connection so large the wave will not fizzle out, but with very small numbers you have probabilistic effects. (Hence SD estimate of zero date) For small number of cases consider each individual event use stochastic (probability) model where in effect you use a weighted dice to decide for the small number of parties, whether an interaction is an infection or a removal. Probability will depend on transmission rate, removal rate, number of infected people, and susceptible people. The situation such as IoM where I assume single seeder, the probability of that seeder fizzling out or generate enough case to get SEIR wave is around 50% Historically this is exactly what we have experienced in IoM, around 50% seeding events have fizzled out. The situation of intrahousehold transmission displayed in real world (WHO etc have data sets) illustrates how this plays out. We know empirically the risk of COIVD infection if another household member is COVID+ is about 50%. You missed thing regarding assumption of a single seeder event. As Jersey data shows '1d & release' will stop ~80% COVID+ who enter IoM. Hence, we have seeders continuously being introduced since ground zero, this would have effect of widening base in incubation period (stochastic period) before get inflection into exponential growth. Also means if social network is weakly disconnected the random seeder will eventually seed various parts of network. This issue is more of unknow than the variance of zero date, and will add more juice to the ensuing wave. Hmmm, wouldn’t a better way be not to use a single seeder, but to plug in the real numbers we have and play forwards? And as for your standard deviation, there’ll be far bigger effects from varying the inputs, particularly R. If, for example, you stick with R at 3.3 but model it as a random variable with a normal distribution and a standard deviation of say 0.5, what happens to the distribution of ‘days to peak cases’? A Monte Carlo simulation varying all the input variables would be the way to do it properly, but I realise this is just an illustration, not a predictor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrighty Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 5 hours ago, BenFairfax said: I see Herd Immunity in effect as the equilibrium point which will be found for the Natural Wave were the risk tolerance of the population is balance against the aggregate desire of personal freedoms. This is not herd immunity. Social behaviour and risk tolerance will affect effective R which determines the proportion of subjects needed to be immune, but that is all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Wright Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 7 hours ago, TheTeapot said: 4 times! What a load of shit. Boy David clearly has a friendship with our own TJ ( oh, wait, wasn’t he claiming 12? ) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gladys Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 2 hours ago, The Old Git said: Kath Morrison (Photos) on Facebook saying covid has claimed a family member. My thoughts are with her, John and family. Yes, sad, condolences to John and Kath. Presumably not here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nom de plume Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 Morning, I’m golfing later today, then off out … I’ve a £100 budget for the day. Could Ben Fairfax knock me up a likely expenditure spreadsheet with attached Covid risk analysis based on a 2 + 2 visiting a minimum of 9 pubs in two differing conurbations. I’m aiming to shoot a 75 gross, can he calculate my chances also? Thanks in advance. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cissolt Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 6 hours ago, BenFairfax said: My effort was to understand the natural wave dynamic, the medical issues I will leave to the medics. You mentioned but cannot find Long COVID considerations, which for under 50s (not grp4 or 6) is the most important consideration. What are your thoughts on Henrietta's comment that models don't work on the Isle of Man? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iom_dave Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 42 minutes ago, Nom de plume said: Morning, I’m golfing later today, then off out … I’ve a £100 budget for the day. Could Ben Fairfax knock me up a likely expenditure spreadsheet with attached Covid risk analysis based on a 2 + 2 visiting a minimum of 9 pubs in two differing conurbations. I’m aiming to shoot a 75 gross, can he calculate my chances also? Thanks in advance. Is that with or without mask? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoTailT Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 54 minutes ago, Nom de plume said: Morning, I’m golfing later today, then off out … I’ve a £100 budget for the day. Could Ben Fairfax knock me up a likely expenditure spreadsheet with attached Covid risk analysis based on a 2 + 2 visiting a minimum of 9 pubs in two differing conurbations. I’m aiming to shoot a 75 gross, can he calculate my chances also? Thanks in advance. Hope I don't have to see you in Ramsey.. 😘 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iom_dave Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 (edited) 15 hours ago, iom_dave said: Yes, that is how it would would. I think a good question is why does the iom need a model. As a first order approximation, is max English hospital beds / 500 not approximate enough? Based on the below, that would be at approximately 5 beds a day. England is more crowded and has less vaccine uptake. These guys are far more qualified that anyone on here and are being subject to peer review by much more qualified people: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001172/S1302_University_of_Warwick_Road_Map_Scenarios_and_Sensitivity_Step_4.2__6_July_2021__1_.pdf Occam's Razor... Had a bit more think about the above, needs an engineering adjustment of x2, maybe 10 beds. Justification is that the IOM is a much smaller population, the UK will be benefiting from averaging between high and low areas. Models are only as good as their data inputs/calibration, each wave of covid in each country seemed to be unique so there are very limited data inputs - it turns into expert judgement. This is why you need an epidemiologist to be in charge of the modelling working with a mathematician to do the implementation. Main things are get vaccinated, be sensible with masks and try to give people space even if they aren't aware they need it. Edited July 23, 2021 by iom_dave typo 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh G Rection Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Nom de plume said: Morning, I’m golfing later today, then off out … I’ve a £100 budget for the day. Could Ben Fairfax knock me up a likely expenditure spreadsheet with attached Covid risk analysis based on a 2 + 2 visiting a minimum of 9 pubs in two differing conurbations. I’m aiming to shoot a 75 gross, can he calculate my chances also? Thanks in advance. Jesus christ almighty, I would suggest you bring a spare mask...in case you get a hole-in-one. Hope you have a tee-riffic day. Don't go poisoning members of the public with your par-right views. Don't foreget to social distance. No ifs, ands or putts. Thanks Nom, and have a great day tiger. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2112 Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 2 hours ago, cissolt said: What are your thoughts on Henrietta's comment that models don't work on the Isle of Man? They won’t get out of bed for less than £10,000! 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy Onchan Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 42 minutes ago, 2112 said: They won’t get out of bed for less than £10,000! From what I've heard some of them wouldn't get in to bed for that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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