Ramseyboi Posted July 24, 2021 Share Posted July 24, 2021 Just now, wrighty said: About 0.4% risk of fatality. Just being 80 gives you an annual risk of death around 8% Exactly. Some serious perspective is needed here. Last year I would have been telling an 80 year old to be a bit wary while things panned out. Now, enjoy your remaining years because being blunt the odds are pretty heavily stacked against you in lots of ways. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boris Johnson Posted July 24, 2021 Share Posted July 24, 2021 (edited) 8 minutes ago, wrighty said: About 0.4% risk of fatality. Just being 80 gives you an annual risk of death around 8% Does that low rate of fatality carry over to our under staffed/ funded hospital too? Edited July 24, 2021 by Boris Johnson 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrighty Posted July 24, 2021 Share Posted July 24, 2021 56 minutes ago, BenFairfax said: Expected by calibrated SEIR model, I am just the messenger. We assume there was not some unknown zero ground before this event: https://www.gov.im/news/2021/jun/27/important-message-for-students-at-st-ninians-high-school/ Rest straight verbatim out of SPI-M playbook. Lot people want to know who I am, as if it effects the mathematics, and with regard to that posted this: https://sites.google.com/webcabcomponents.com/seir-model-of-iom-natural-wave/who-i-am-and-why-did-i-produce-these-models?authuser=0 I don’t think you have calibrated the model accurately. I think your R is way off, your length of stay is off, choosing a single seeding is inaccurate given we now have 1000s, but mainly modelling the population as a homogeneous 14765 susceptible group is way off reality. You also don’t have a stratified admission rate according to age. Dr Ewart said models weren’t helpful here due to our small numbers and I can see where she’s coming from. I’ve spent the last year plus modelling this pandemic. My first effort did the trick quite well, but recently the confidence intervals have just been far too wide - we don’t really know R for delta, we don’t know the exact vaccine efficacy, and all models are very sensitive to these inputs. Last time I ran them, my conclusion was once we’d vaxxed over 30s we should be able to cope with unmitigated spread. I think that’s where we are now, and so far so good. 2 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boris Johnson Posted July 24, 2021 Share Posted July 24, 2021 (edited) Just for the fun of it I see Jersey have postponed opening of restrictions.... The planned lifting of Covid restrictions in Jersey will not happen until September at the earliest, the government has announced. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-jersey-57950415 As an aside, are the "government" here going to follow the UK and insist on Covid passports for entry to nightclubs and the like in September? I cant see it, as they do not seem to have the intelligence to see the benefit. Edited July 24, 2021 by Boris Johnson Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramseyboi Posted July 24, 2021 Share Posted July 24, 2021 8 minutes ago, Boris Johnson said: Does that low rate of fatality carry over to our under staffed/ funded hospital too? It’s averaged accross the Uk as I understand so I would suggest your odds here are better. You probably think an 80 year old who gets COVID is sure to die. Not sure what more people can do that show you the real-time and real world current figures? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boris Johnson Posted July 24, 2021 Share Posted July 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ramseyboi said: It’s averaged accross the Uk as I understand so I would suggest your odds here are better. You probably think an 80 year old who gets COVID is sure to die. Not sure what more people can do that show you the real-time and real world current figures? Really? Have you been in Nobles with a serious condition? Quite clearly you have not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlanShimmin Posted July 24, 2021 Share Posted July 24, 2021 23 minutes ago, Danoo said: Imagine being shocked that people can still get and throw off a cold, even in these pandemic end times. >facepalm< Not surprised at all tbf. Just offering up the idea that it may be happening and "everyone being wiped out with Covid" is actually just some other crappy bug going round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramseyboi Posted July 24, 2021 Share Posted July 24, 2021 1 minute ago, Boris Johnson said: Really? Have you been in Nobles with a serious condition? Quite clearly you have not. You are going way off topic here, and getting a bit ranty. If someone is 80 there is an 8 percent chance they won’t see 81. If that same person contracts COVID there is a 0.4 percent that COVID will kill them (assuming two jabs) You are still going on like COVID is a huge risk and will kill us all. It won’t. Nobles might not be the best hospital in the world but I have never really had an issue. Nobles isn’t likely at majorly skew the simple statistics Wrighty quoted, certainly no more so than being in a rural area of the UK. COVID here is done. The only issues now will be if comin bow to the panic of people like you rather than actually watching what is going on. PS - my mate went into nobles yesterday and is a COViD case. Not going into details but he would have ended up in Nobles at exactly the same time as he did COVID or no COVID. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boris Johnson Posted July 24, 2021 Share Posted July 24, 2021 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Ramseyboi said: You are going way off topic here, and getting a bit ranty. If someone is 80 there is an 8 percent chance they won’t see 81. If that same person contracts COVID there is a 0.4 percent that COVID will kill them (assuming two jabs) You are still going on like COVID is a huge risk and will kill us all. It won’t. Nobles might not be the best hospital in the world but I have never really had an issue. Nobles isn’t likely at majorly skew the simple statistics Wrighty quoted, certainly no more so than being in a rural area of the UK. COVID here is done. The only issues now will be if comin bow to the panic of people like you rather than actually watching what is going on. PS - my mate went into nobles yesterday and is a COViD case. Not going into details but he would have ended up in Nobles at exactly the same time as he did COVID or no COVID. Ranting is several paragraphs, as above. I am doing one liners in the main. Quoted for reference in about 3-4 weeks thanks. 🙂 Edited July 24, 2021 by Boris Johnson 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramseyboi Posted July 24, 2021 Share Posted July 24, 2021 (edited) 5 minutes ago, AlanShimmin said: Not surprised at all tbf. Just offering up the idea that it may be happening and "everyone being wiped out with Covid" is actually just some other crappy bug going round. There is absolutely a bug going around wiping out perfectly fit and healthy people under 40 for a few days. Like a really heavy cold. The ones I know who were convinced they must have the dread ‘vid tested negative despite having to spend a full day in bed. Edited July 24, 2021 by Ramseyboi 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramseyboi Posted July 24, 2021 Share Posted July 24, 2021 1 minute ago, Boris Johnson said: Quoted for reference in about 3-4 weeks thanks. 🙂 We will all be dead apparently? Who is going to post or read it? The special forces that NATO airdrop in to clear all the corpses 😂 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Mexico Posted July 24, 2021 Share Posted July 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, AlanShimmin said: Not surprised at all tbf. Just offering up the idea that it may be happening and "everyone being wiped out with Covid" is actually just some other crappy bug going round. Well except if that was happening we'd be seeing an awful lot more people testing negative (as we have previously). We've seen such ridiculously positivity rates that it suggests that has changed or that the Lab is screwing things up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danoo Posted July 24, 2021 Share Posted July 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, AlanShimmin said: Not surprised at all tbf. Just offering up the idea that it may be happening and "everyone being wiped out with Covid" is actually just some other crappy bug going round. It was only tongue in cheek. I do agree though, it's like people have forgotten it's completely normal to feel a bit unwell every now and again without panicking. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boris Johnson Posted July 24, 2021 Share Posted July 24, 2021 Just now, Ramseyboi said: We will all be dead apparently? Who is going to post or read it? The special forces that NATO airdrop in to clear all the corpses 😂 No we wont all be dead, but there will be a huge problem at Nobles and god help any under 50s with a life/ family responsibilities who are unlucky enough to get really ill because of Covid, they are Fuc"ed 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danoo Posted July 24, 2021 Share Posted July 24, 2021 1 minute ago, Boris Johnson said: No we wont all be dead, but there will be a huge problem at Nobles and god help any under 50s with a life/ family responsibilities who are unlucky enough to get really ill because of Covid, they are Fuc"ed We have now entered insanity. Or peak satire. Or both. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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