IOM Covid removing restrictions

[Boris Johnson]

14 minutes ago, Danoo said:

We have now entered insanity. Or peak satire. Or both.

Another that has not experienced Nobles at its Best?

ETA. There is an old saying for those of a religious persuasion, What Would Jesus Do?

I have a more rational verion of that "What would a first world country do" as in somewhere like an EU nation.

Does anyone really think that our governments total disregard for Covid is a better mitigation policy than say Germanys? Italy's? England's? Wales'? Even wee Jimmy Crankies?

Answers on the back of a  postcard to the cabinet office, which by the way is the most ridiculous name for a non entity.

Edited July 24, 2021 by Boris Johnson

[BenFairfax]

41 minutes ago, Ramseyboi said:

The risk from Covid to a double jabbed 80 year old is about the same as that to a non jabbed 50 year old.  
 

so basically zero risk, or a risk so negligible  that I would suggest it would be outweighed by the mental and wellbeing benefit of a pint in the pub with mates.

80yo 2+2, equating to risk 50yo unvaccinated was clearest idea of choices presented by Government so far. Risk tolerance personal thing, and people make their choices. 50yo not zero change of any of bad outcomes, we can look Google the numbers. It is what it is. As said if you decide to go to pub why not drink pint in garden if you an 80yo, after all hardly like weather now in normal for IoM.

[AcousticallyChallenged]

1 minute ago, Boris Johnson said:

No we wont all be dead, but there will be a huge problem at Nobles and god help any under 50s with a life/ family responsibilities who are unlucky enough to get really ill because of Covid, they are Fuc"ed

Personally, I reckon it'll be another weird month or so then it'll settle, a lot of the 18-25s getting infected are around due their second jabs. The schools are on holiday and it's gorgeous so anyone mingling is doing so outside if they're being sensible.

Being a bit prudent around supermarkets, pharmacies etc. is more likely than not to be the socially responsible approach.

The world will be watching us, if they have any sense, to see how things go. But I don't think we're by any stretch doomed.

It's the paralysed businesses who have really been left behind now.

[AlanShimmin]

1 minute ago, BenFairfax said:

80yo 2+2, equating to risk 50yo unvaccinated was clearest idea of choices presented by Government so far. Risk tolerance personal thing, and people make their choices. 50yo not zero change of any of bad outcomes, we can look Google the numbers. It is what it is. As said if you decide to go to pub why not drink pint in garden if you an 80yo, after all hardly like weather now in normal for IoM.

This fella is mad as a box of frogs.

[BenFairfax]

27 minutes ago, wrighty said:

choosing a single seeding is inaccurate given we now have 1000s

I told you that, not you presenting it as your idea. Come on, time stamped on Manx Forums. Will start ringing Manx Care various medic I know Monday, and see what going on. Worse case is I will get as asbo for keep ringing.

[Danoo]

1 minute ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

Personally, I reckon it'll be another weird month or so then it'll settle, a lot of the 18-25s getting infected are around due their second jabs. The schools are on holiday and it's gorgeous so anyone mingling is doing so outside if they're being sensible.

Being a bit prudent around supermarkets, pharmacies etc. is more likely than not to be the socially responsible approach.

The world will be watching us, if they have any sense, to see how things go. But I don't think we're by any stretch doomed.

It's the paralysed businesses who have really been left behind now.

Sorry to disappoint you but the world really isn't watching us. No-one is. 

[wrighty]

3 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

I told you that, not you presenting it as your idea. Come on, time stamped on Manx Forums. Will start ringing Manx Care various medic I know Monday, and see what going on. Worse case is I will get as asbo for keep ringing.

So how is your model performing, several days in?

When I made my first model I also started with a single seeding, but as cases went up I adjusted it as time went on. Have you made any attempt to model the local growth in cases we have here so as to better estimate R and correct the current numbers to better play forwards, rather than sticking to R=3.35 and there was 1 case in mid-July?

[Gladys]

Rather than dropping like flies, a great many of the GMP are buzzing around the house like angry flies bouncing at the windows.  Desperate to get out.  

 

[BenFairfax]

48 minutes ago, wrighty said:

About 0.4% risk of fatality. 
 

Just being 80 gives you an annual risk of death around 8%

That exactly what I said to old man, and that top slicing off biggest risks is the place to start. Is Manx Care, Dr H or whoever, going to produce the numbers as a presser so people can decide. If have a link you guys use in PH would help, I assume it be ONS.

[BenFairfax]

2 hours ago, wrighty said:

So how is your model performing, several days in?

When I made my first model I also started with a single seeding, but as cases went up I adjusted it as time went on. Have you made any attempt to model the local growth in cases we have here so as to better estimate R and correct the current numbers to better play forwards, rather than sticking to R=3.35 and there was 1 case in mid-July?

In rough terms the results to date been good, and I need to do backtesting, and could also calibrate the models against cases/hospitalization. More ideas which you guys can throw at me, overfitting, and degrees of freedom. Not fitting with back testing though, that a no no for me. The model usefulness is we see the likely scale of cases and the duration over which they will occur.  

Multiple seeding is an issue clearly, also knowing zero case date, and growth from when the number of cases was small (i.e. stochastic model Dr H mentioned). Would have been so cool if had @rachomics really drilling down on what exactly happened around that time. All we know is that teacher in SNHS was infected on 27th June. Who knows, if asymptotic case before that, how many infected on 27th and so on.... I took that event on 27th though at the zero case. R = 3.35 I went through before, also as said in reality is going to depend itself on time, risk aversion and network. What I did was good enough for our household which was the original planned audience. Only when found out EAG had no such model at hand did I go off to get something for public domain.

The Academy of Medical Sciences, done much more granular, refined model, but again get overfitted and too many variables which I am not a fan of. In finance simple, and conceptually clean models work the best for me, and hence that is my taste.  The Academy of Medical Sciences also factors in UK Summer Natural Wave and has materials out modelling vaccine drift and winter 2021/2 demand on NHS.

[EDIT: One more issue you could throw at me 'look ahead' they call it in finance. When use data which could not have been known at the time of the prediction. Why so many models look good in development, but failed when used in the real world. Dr H mentioned 'Black Swan', the author of that book N.Talab wrote the book because he blew up writing way out of the money options, which is one good example of when a model failed in real world. But he is right in thinking tails are lot fatting than you would expect, but anyone been in finance for more the 5 years (who is not insolvent) knows the anyway.]

Edited July 24, 2021 by BenFairfax
Quality of my literacy education. Thankfully, kids after me had SATS, Ofsted & Ofqual.

[HeliX]

1 hour ago, wrighty said:

Just being 80 gives you an annual risk of death around 8%

Now that's what I call living dangerously.

[NoTailT]

11 minutes ago, HeliX said:

Now that's what I call living dangerously.

What's the % chance of dying smoking pot? Maybe @TheTeapotknows..

Seems we should be running around arresting 80 years olds instead.

[Nom de plume]

1 hour ago, Danoo said:

Sorry to disappoint you but the world really isn't watching us. No-one is. 

Of course they aren’t.

The Mary’s have us down as some sort of Josef Mengele experimentation camp.

[AlanShimmin]

3 hours ago, BenFairfax said:

I told you that, not you presenting it as your idea. Come on, time stamped on Manx Forums. Will start ringing Manx Care various medic I know Monday, and see what going on. Worse case is I will get as asbo for keep ringing.

They would rather you didn't. They have actual work to do - not like you teachers and your six weeks summer holidays. 

[TheTeapot]

4 hours ago, Boris Johnson said:

 

As an aside, are the "government" here going to follow the UK and insist on Covid passports for entry to nightclubs and the like in September?

I cant see it, as they do not seem to have the intelligence to see the benefit.

I don't have the intelligence to see the benefit. Could you explain what it is please?