BenFairfax Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 8 minutes ago, BenFairfax said: we don’t know the exact vaccine efficacy I just assumed 76%, which fine assumption for our household. Really should be multi-factor model to break down various vaccinates, ages and maybe when given. Have you guys done this? By slightly worried in SA variant got here with grp 4 mostly getting Az, and so on. Anyway, lot work for someone but net-net curve will look the same. I read article on anti-body level, and 31% over 80s have no detectable anti-bodies but clearly the vaccine is doing something (I assume they are not still living in the bunker post 2+2). I basically have no grasp on medical issues or biology, as with most things biology I bet @rachomics could sketch out situation. Does vaccine efficacy decay with time, what level of vaccine drift and so on. But thanks good point. Really want to know details behind zero day. I spoke teacher who said SNHS day 0 case was not on d1 of 'd1 & release', and got impression was not day 6, but that could just be covering for the person I do not know, but you would have the details. Is this true, you talking Day 0 = 25th June and then peak with model I produced is 1st Aug (not 4th Aug as think case now). That one week off, before we get freak out and supermarket shelves get stripped! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenFairfax Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 16 minutes ago, Annoymouse said: You lose all credibility when you start posting this sort of tripe. Not a fan of complete strangers telling me what to do. I should block him really, be easier, doubt I will ever get a decent put down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenFairfax Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 1 hour ago, AlanShimmin said: You're 100000% less funny than you actually think you are. Little more edgy.... But think can do better than that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenFairfax Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 1 hour ago, AlanShimmin said: You're wrong! A bit like your models That's a bit better! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenFairfax Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 1 hour ago, snowman said: Another INRAT from @BenFairfax What is INRAT? People were really unpleasant here to Dr G, 9 months ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenFairfax Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 8 hours ago, wrighty said: Last time I ran them, my conclusion was once we’d vaxxed over 30s we should be able to cope with unmitigated spread. I think that’s where we are now, and so far so good. Could not find the post, but I mentioned the point that model has single seeder and then you mentioned the same issue back at me. Anyway, it a technical limitation to make implementation more manageable but not ideal. Not even tallied up total seeders but critical ones will be additional seeders at start of wave. Net effect be increase effective R over the initial week or so. Someone must have implemented a work around for this. We know multi seeded wave is going to have bit more juice in it. My thinking off top of my head is move Day 0, 1 day earlier be a smudge for this. Since say 3 new seeders off boat in pool say 10 infectious, different % effect than when have 250 infectious. I agree is an effect but outside early stage of wave, it is marginal effect. Will sleep on this, what was your plan with working around this? Yes, I agree with unmitigated spread once the over 30s vaxxed, with the proviso regarding mitigation for 2+2s in high risk groups. I gave 22 max bed occupancy for wave over 15k unvaxxed (we agreed likely 9.4 avg hospital stay too long [but skewed to be safe, what #days you using?], but think 1.23% hospitalisation rate in line with data I have and PHE estimate of ~1%, what % are you using for hospitalizations?), but if see large numbers 2+2 infections that is not a number I would be happy to stand behind. [Can see why PHE going with this in Summer, can you imagine situation if this wave was occurring in November]. I said shielding to get peoples attention (and PHE advice for UK shielders is along these lines, see below), members from other groups outside grp 1, 2, 4, may also prefer this course of action, but some messaging and ability the get food delivered should be done at national level for 2+2 high risk groups. As I said consultants/GPs not sent letters out with any advice AFAIK. Some had idea of safe times, i.e. times when vital services like food shops, chemist, public transport, masks are mandatory. It just means 2+2s who want to take mitigations and be in an environment where less likely to be infected they can be. Mitigation for 2+2s at society level (not individual) has following advantages: (1) 2+2s infections do not add anything regarding goal of reaching herd immunity (2) Infected 2+2s put further pressure on health system (3) Political fall out if have bad outcomes for 2+2s (2) or (3) could lead to reverse in policy and end up in no man's land. If the march to Herd Immunity is stopped mid track, and we end up with mandated restrictions; the entire point of the program to reach situation needing no restrictions has failed. Jersey gone into this state now, and stated will have restrictions until September at least. (see https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-jersey-57950415) What a disaster since then you talking about going into Winter before restart the wave. I mentioned 'COVID-19: Preparing for the future (Looking ahead to winter 2021/22 and beyond)', 15 July 2021 by The Academy of Medical Sciences, on p16 it shows outcomes of models regarding cases, hospitalisations, long COVID, and deaths for UK. The plan is clear to reduce demand on hospitals in middle winter January 2020 (usual peak) and get bulk through system between mid-Aug to mid-Sep. From this report the proportions regarding outcomes from cases are: hospitalization ~1% cases, long COVID ~2.6% cases, deaths ~0.1% cases. The modelling of these outcomes assumes that shielders follow updated PHE advice: "However, as someone who is at a higher risk of becoming seriously ill if you were to catch COVID-19, you may wish to think particularly carefully about additional precautions you might wish to continue to take. Individuals may choose to limit the close contact they have with those they do not usually meet with in order to reduce the risk of catching or spreading COVID-19, particularly if they are clinically extremely vulnerable and if COVID-19 disease levels in the general community are high." See: Guidance on protecting people who are clinically extremely vulnerable from COVID-19 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) (21 July 2021) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nom de plume Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 After the sunshine of Covid & those halcyon days of fully paid furlough Summer 2020 Prosecco ‘working from home’ garden parties, the rain will soon start to fall and the pain will truly begin to be felt ……. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57958178 …. and a generation of half educated kids …. and non elective surgery waiting lists reaching 3 years ….. and, and, and. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlanShimmin Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 9 minutes ago, Nom de plume said: After the sunshine of Covid & those halcyon days of fully paid furlough Summer 2020 Prosecco ‘working from home’ garden parties, the rain will soon start to fall and the pain will truly begin to be felt ……. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57958178 …. and a generation of half educated kids …. and non elective surgery waiting lists reaching 3 years ….. and, and, and. And some would still rather be forced to lock themselves away Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nom de plume Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 (edited) 28 minutes ago, AlanShimmin said: And some would still rather be forced to lock themselves away Most of them are retired, Government employees or living off free money ….. 99.9% in fact. Edited July 25, 2021 by Nom de plume 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
De nada Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 Not nice I suppose but I did smile a little bit... LA man who mocked Covid-19 vaccines dies of virus https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-57958358 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thommo2010 Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 12 minutes ago, De nada said: Not nice I suppose but I did smile a little bit... LA man who mocked Covid-19 vaccines dies of virus https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-57958358 You smiled at someone you don't know dying? Strange 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nom de plume Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 8 minutes ago, offshoremanxman said: The numbers in that are staggering; taxpayers could be liable for an estimated £26 billion of bad loans out of a total £92 billion of loans guaranteed by the government. So it’s cost £100 billion just in underwritten loans on top of the billions spent on furlough. Staggering is a word that doesn’t do it justice. There is no word. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danoo Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 25 minutes ago, De nada said: Not nice I suppose but I did smile a little bit... LA man who mocked Covid-19 vaccines dies of virus https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-57958358 What about if someone who has had the vaccine dies of the virus. Is that funny too? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nom de plume Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Danoo said: What about if someone who has had the vaccine dies of the virus. Is that funny too? Stop it. You’re embarrassing yourself. Go back to bed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danoo Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 6 hours ago, HeliX said: I was rather hoping she'd died by now. Nice. We’re on a roll on here at the minute in wishing death on people. Good to see humanity is still something to be cherished. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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