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IOM Covid removing restrictions


Filippo

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8 minutes ago, Ramseyboi said:

Or in fact living in the same house as them and sharing a bed as is being shown in thousands of houses all over the island every day.

Data or speculation?

You've got two factors in direct competition. Delta is 64% more transmissible in the household than Alpha.  https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/93351

But, even after the first dose, your odds of passing it on are 40-50% lower, but, the caveat is, this study is from pre-Delta data. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2107717

I don't think there's been a tick box category in the data for whether people share a bed. If you've got a study with that data, please do share.

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1 hour ago, Gladys said:

How do you know who is who?

just the same as you don't now,    and what of the unvaccinated who cannot have the jab for genuine medical reasons ?  do they get to travel or not ?  will they be differentiated from the abstainers ?   we don't have all this shit with who's had a flu vaccine 

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37 minutes ago, Andy Onchan said:

Maybe it's time to be less selfish, stop whining and crying 👍

People whining that they couldn't go on holiday or that they might have to pay a little more tax etc. Or refusing to be vaccinated or wear a mask.

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The new isolation rules effectively give you another day in isolation as you can go out at any time on day 11 rather than midday on day 10. 

Great, so those who are isolating can't have that half day dealing with stuff they couldn't during isolation, including meeting up with friends, and for most the first port of call after isolation is work!

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1 hour ago, Roger Mexico said:

 

The increase in tests again seems low (94,636 - 94,009 = 627), and below capacity.  This gives a daily positivity rate of over 40%.  This is bonkers.

The cases will be dropping off a lot quicker now because there is no more exit testing, as for the positivity rate, I think the higher the better, other than travel everyone sent for test should be  testing positive because they match the symptoms/criteria.

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7 minutes ago, Annoymouse said:

The cases will be dropping off a lot quicker now because there is no more exit testing, as for the positivity rate, I think the higher the better, other than travel everyone sent for test should be  testing positive because they match the symptoms/criteria.

Exactly.  Apart from travel there shouldn’t be anyone there who hasn’t already given a positive lateral flow or is displaying symptoms.

Things are completely different to two weeks ago, so people seeing an increase in positivity rate and thinking it’s a disaster is another example applying data and principles from weeks ago to an ever changing situation.  Means nothing. 

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51 minutes ago, Annoymouse said:

The cases will be dropping off a lot quicker now because there is no more exit testing, as for the positivity rate, I think the higher the better, other than travel everyone sent for test should be  testing positive because they match the symptoms/criteria.

The lack of exit testing will be part of this - I suspect they're dropping it mainly because of lack of capacity.  But even if they are only testing symptomatic cases that's a ridiculously high figure for anywhere in the world.  There will always be a lot of summer colds etc around and in similar situations previously, daily positivity never went over 15%.

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16 minutes ago, Ramseyboi said:

6th line in your article.

Quote

"Today's figures do not of course include any impact of last Monday's end of restrictions. It will not be until about next Friday before the data includes the impact of this change."

Followed by the conclusion

Quote

"This is a very difficult phase of epidemic to predict and very careful surveillance and monitoring will remain important for weeks and months to come," said Prof Woolhouse.

"There is nothing yet that undermines the government's decision to unlock on 19 July but [we will] have to continue to watch."

The article itself says it's promising, but far too soon to tell.

Edited by AcousticallyChallenged
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