BenFairfax Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 29 minutes ago, NoTailT said: You know what disappoints me most? Is that we haven't had any projections from data expert Josem. I guess @BenFairfaxwill have to do. Josem was really good on vaccine roll out, got to take your hat off to him for that. With SEIR models and me, I made them for our households internal modeling and only thought about public dissemination when EAG member told me the had seen to such models. Now everyone can have a go, just plug in numbers and see what comes out: https://sites.google.com/webcabcomponents.com/seir-model-of-iom-natural-wave/seir-model-live?authuser=0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CallMeCurious Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 1 hour ago, The Voice of Reason said: “Face nappy” about as intellectually equivalent as “the adjacent isle” Calf of Man? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alpha-acid Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 47 minutes ago, BenFairfax said: Josem was really good on vaccine roll out, got to take your hat off to him for that. With SEIR models and me, I made them for our households internal modeling and only thought about public dissemination when EAG member told me the had seen to such models. Now everyone can have a go, just plug in numbers and see what comes out: https://sites.google.com/webcabcomponents.com/seir-model-of-iom-natural-wave/seir-model-live?authuser=0 I thought my writing was bad as a Scientist, yours is just atrocious, I struggle to make sense of it maybe you are just used to writing in equations Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcousticallyChallenged Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 Large study finds COVID-19 is linked to a substantial drop in intelligence Quote The level of cognitive underperformance was also associated with the level of illness severity, with those who were hospitalized on a ventilator showing the greatest deficits. The observed deficit for COVID-19 patients who had been put on a ventilator equated to a 7-point drop in IQ. The deficit was even larger than the deficits observed for individuals who had previously suffered a stroke and who reported learning disabilities. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlanShimmin Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 7 hours ago, AcousticallyChallenged said: Large study finds COVID-19 is linked to a substantial drop in intelligence Perhaps it's been more widespread here than we thought. @BenFairfax have you had a PCR test in the last 18 months? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nom de plume Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 Good morning, Very encouraging to note case numbers in decline across the water. Hopefully two to three more weeks of crying here & we’ll be through the worst of it. Enjoy your week people, s’all good. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlanShimmin Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 38 minutes ago, Nom de plume said: Good morning, Very encouraging to note case numbers in decline across the water. Hopefully two to three more weeks of crying here & we’ll be through the worst of it. Enjoy your week people, s’all good. Thanks, Howard. You too! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramseyboi Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 Jeez. They are still going on fb. “ The moment they let double jabbed just be free is the moment it’s spread within the community! And those things opening us up even more… sound like they just want us all to catch it now. 😒” No shit Sherlock. Once levels of protection were deemed enough that risk vs reward tipped towards reward and the timing with summer etc was perfect they made the informed decision to let it go in a relatively controlled manner. Guess what? So far with careful monitoring to start with which is now being reduced as it caused temporary issues with too many in isolation it looks to be working. Soon cases will start to fall as they are in UK and we drop the remaining restrictions mid august ready for autumn and booster jabs to keep things normal. Early on I thought they really made some major errors. Since May I can’t really fault them apart from not having better support in place for those forced into isolation. There are still people convinced we are doomed despite our own figures and those in the Uk showing the massive impact vaccinations have had and I don’t get it. I actually think people have been put into such a state of fear they might not be mentally able to ever return to living how they did 2 years ago. Peel was packed last night and people were complaint that the pubs were full of “COVIsitors”. Idiots too short sighted to realise that those pubs we’re making a bomb where they would normally be dead. I hope I am not proven wrong in the future but I can see anything in the figures here or UK that causes any concern. Well, no more concern that a few hundred other small risks I will take today. Heres to hoping people calm down by the end of the week and parents actually let their kids enjoy their summer rather than filling their heads with worry. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
immortalpuppet Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 (edited) Seeing people back in work that caught Covid at the nunnery. so, with no exit tests we should be looking at 100+ people a day out of SI which will hopefully help the venues that have been struggling with staff. As many people flapping on Social media about the current situation, out in the real world there is little or no panic and the atmosphere seems really positive. There are even more than a few people casually donning masks when faced with crowded or poorly ventilated areas and nobody is batting an eyelid. I think the people driving the mandate for masks want some sort of fanfare played for attention when the reality is it’s becoming part of normal life and there is far less stigma around compared to the previous waves. Edited July 26, 2021 by immortalpuppet 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monasqueen Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 Trouble is, vaccination is not stopping the infection spreading. It is only making the infection more tolerable when you catch it. Yeah, so I can live with that, I hope. The jab will help to keep you out of hospital, so it's got to be worth having. Guernsey publishes stats on how many people with Covid have been jabbed. Nearly half their recent cases have been double jabbed. It's not going to go away any time soon. No point being scared of it any more. Just take care, and use a bit of common sense as you go about your normal life, and choose the countries you holiday in carefully! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramseyboi Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 37 minutes ago, Roxanne said: Yes. I’m think we’ve defiantly got your message now. You can stop posting the exact same stuff in every post. Thanks. Everything I post is based on what is actually happening around us right now. Most others are posting fears based on what has happened in the past, and predictions of what “might” happen but won’t. Vaccines work. covid in Britain is finished. If those people could quit posting conjecture and showing their inability to look at an actual situation as it develops I will stop posting the reasoned responses to it. Wrighty and others seem to believe similar to me now. It’s not like I am a lone uninformed idiot. We can literally see it happening all around us. Nice to see my 83 year old giving the lawn its regular Monday trip before. We have been taking him for the last few day as he was a bit worried after testing possible (8 days no I think) said he felt a bit run down for a couple of days. 2 heart attack, 1 valve replacement, a quadruple bypass, and eve Pugh medication for that and alcohol induced liver condition that I have no doubt he would have at the absolute minimum ended up in Nobles last year. Only went for a test because he daughter bagged him into it. Now wished she hadn’t as he is stuck at home and feels ill. Incedentally no contract tracing from taxi drivers who have tested positive and been working with symptoms thought to be hay fever. That should panic a few. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramseyboi Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 41 minutes ago, immortalpuppet said: Seeing people back in work that caught Covid at the nunnery. so, with no exit tests we should be looking at 100+ people a day out of SI which will hopefully help the venues that have been struggling with staff. As many people flapping on Social media about the current situation, out in the real world there is little or no panic and the atmosphere seems really positive. There are even more than a few people casually donning masks when faced with crowded or poorly ventilated areas and nobody is batting an eyelid. I think the people driving the mandate for masks want some sort of fanfare played for attention when the reality is it’s becoming part of normal life and there is far less stigma around compared to the previous waves. Saw at least one venue of over the weekend because of staff isolating according to the sign on the door. Photos of most of the staff at Dark Horse all weekend would suggest it was actually an easy out for a bit of customer sympathy rather that “Sorry. Closed Friday to Monday as we have all gone to listen to music. Drink, smoke, dance and have general fun in the sun with several thousand others” All is not what it seems in the world. If there is an option to have a weekend and raise no questions then some will take it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Hedgehog Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 13 hours ago, The Voice of Reason said: “Face nappy” about as intellectually equivalent as “the adjacent isle” Or Cornwall based posters referring to the Island as The Rock 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quilp Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ramseyboi said: Everything I post is based on what is actually happening around us right now. Most others are posting fears based on what has happened in the past, and predictions of what “might” happen but won’t. Vaccines work. covid in Britain is finished. If those people could quit posting conjecture and showing their inability to look at an actual situation as it develops I will stop posting the reasoned responses to it. Wrighty and others seem to believe similar to me now. It’s not like I am a lone uninformed idiot. We can literally see it happening all around us. Nice to see my 83 year old giving the lawn its regular Monday trip before. We have been taking him for the last few day as he was a bit worried after testing possible (8 days no I think) said he felt a bit run down for a couple of days. 2 heart attack, 1 valve replacement, a quadruple bypass, and eve Pugh medication for that and alcohol induced liver condition that I have no doubt he would have at the absolute minimum ended up in Nobles last year. Only went for a test because he daughter bagged him into it. Now wished she hadn’t as he is stuck at home and feels ill. Incedentally no contract tracing from taxi drivers who have tested positive and been working with symptoms thought to be hay fever. That should panic a few. "if those people could quit posting conjecture..." What is the above post if not 50% conjecture? e.g, "covid in Britain is finished" Tying yourself in with "wrighty and others ("seem to believe similar to me now")" is merely borrowed plumage to give yourself credibility. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josem Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 13 hours ago, NoTailT said: You know what disappoints me most? Is that we haven't had any projections from data expert Josem. I guess @BenFairfaxwill have to do. I don't recall making any such projections about the vaccine: my charts merely reported the facts of what had already happened. They're all publicly licensed under very open and permissive Creative Commons licenses, so if anyone wants to update them, they're welcome to do so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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