IOM Covid removing restrictions

[Apple]

17 minutes ago, Ramseyboi said:

Why no just be grateful things are going in the right direction rather than almost hoping it all falls apart to prove a point?

I see most posters on here hoping it is all going well and will stay that way. I don't think anyone has stated they want it to "fall apart".  I think people may express some caution based on their own risk assessments of their own circumstances. Nothing wrong with that.

Nothing is going to change because of a post on Manxforums.  

Debating just to 'win' the argument is not debating. 

[Ramseyboi]

14 minutes ago, wrighty said:

I can't be more specific due to confidentiality reasons, but that statement is false.

I can tell you though that given the cases we've had in the past few weeks we'd have expected about 80 admissions because of covid, and about 8 deaths (and the average age of the positive cases is 23 or 28, depending on which average you use, so these would have been relative youngsters being admitted and dying).  Vaccination works.

Oh.  Look at that.  False info being posted to try and make it sound worse than it really is.

I knew it was rubbish and when asked for a fact check was ignored and laughed at.

Anyway.  Government have fixed it for good now.

Edit.  Bit quoted is correct. Cambons post was wrong.  My conversation with a close relative (who is actually quite cross that their family member is being included in the figures) was ignored.

Edited July 26, 2021 by Ramseyboi
Link won’t post. Down with the kids COVID music on government fb page to save us all

[Ramseyboi]

16 minutes ago, Apple said:

I see most posters on here hoping it is all going well and will stay that way. I don't think anyone has stated they want it to "fall apart".  I think people may express some caution based on their own risk assessments of their own circumstances. Nothing wrong with that.

Nothing is going to change because of a post on Manxforums.  

Debating just to 'win' the argument is not debating. 

I agree.  Then posters try and express optimism based on their own risk assessments and what is actually happening and people take offence.

I still haven’t seen a single statistic that makes me think things are going to get worse here.

If anything I start to wonder if we actually know how to run a pcr test and should send some away to confirm results if we aren’t already.

[AlanShimmin]

Just now, Ramseyboi said:

I agree.  Then posters try and express optimism based on their own risk assessments and what is actually happening and people take offence.

I still haven’t seen a single statistic that makes me think things are going to get worse here.

If anything I start to wonder if we actually know how to run a pcr test and should send some away to confirm results if we aren’t already.

I want it to go well. I feel it might be going well. 

 

But then you remember who we have making the key decisions and that sends a chill down the spine. 

 

If we pull it off then it will be luck rather than leadership that has done it.

[Ramseyboi]

Good friend just contacted by her regular taxi driver (not 111) that he tested positive the day after he ran her from ballaugh to the airport.

Hey ho.  Wonder how many others he had in that cab in the few days either side who he has no means of contacting.

He isn’t ill by the way.  He was contacted by another punter who developed symptoms.

[Roger Mexico]

28 minutes ago, Ramseyboi said:

Because no two places are the same.  So many variables.

Vaccinations. General health of population. Average age of population. Healthcare. Mitigation measures. Average life expectancy of population. Diet. Ethnicity.  Even the current weather conditions, rain water levels for sanitation etc.

I chose Malta because their rate of vaccination (148/100) is similar to ours (143/100) and other variables aren't that different, though vaccination is the most important.  From population their numbers in hospital aren't that different, but out case numbers per head are so much higher.  That's why I suspect there are a lot of false positives in our figures.

[Apple]

26 July 2021 

Large consignment of lateral flow tests arrives on Island 

Well over 100,000 lateral flow devices (LFDs) and have been delivered to the Island and are being made available to the Manx public today. Further deliveries will be made on a regular basis.
 
Civil Defence volunteers are assisting in the distribution of LFD packs to community pharmacies and other regional pick-up points around the Island.
 
Members of the public who wish to collect a kit from their local pharmacy should check the list of participating businesses, and any restrictions on visiting them which may apply, via this link
 
In order to allow people access to the tests they need when they need them, and to deter stockpiling, no more than one set of seven tests should be requested per person.  
 
Local authorities are assisting in the distribution of LFDs, and the public can collect them from town halls and commissioners’ offices during normal opening hours at these locations:
 
Douglas Borough Council
Henry Bloom Noble Library,
Duke Street, Douglas
 
Peel Commissioners
Town Hall, Derby Road, Peel IM5 1RG
 
Castletown Commissioners
Castletown Town Hall
Farrants Way, Castletown IM9 1NR
 
Port Erin Commissioners
Port Erin Commissioners Office
Bridson Street
Port Erin IM9 6AN
 
Ramsey Commissioners
Ramsey Town Hall (and Library on Saturdays)
Ground Floor
 
Onchan Commissioners
Onchan District Commissioners 
Hawthorn Villa,
Main Road, Onchan, IM3 1RD
 
In addition, Ramsey Commissioners will offer test kits from their public library counter on Saturdays.
 
Civil Defence will run collection hubs at the same four school car parks as last week between 7.30pm and 9.30pm tonight Monday 26 July and tomorrow Tuesday 27 July.
 
North: Ramsey Grammar School car park in front of the East Building
South: Castle Rushen High School car park
East:    Ballakermeen High School car park
West:  QE II High School car park 
 
The provision of LFDs allows widespread testing among the public, after the requirement for a PCR test on day nine for those who had previously tested positive was removed, and self-isolation restrictions on close contacts lifted.
 
The approach supports government’s mitigation strategy, where the public are encouraged to make informed decisions about what is best for their own circumstances, and for their families.
 
Taking a lateral flow test will be useful when planning to visit someone who is vulnerable, shielding or in poor health, and for work purposes - and reporting of results will help government monitor transmission of coronavirus in the community. It is recommended people test themselves no more than twice per week.
 
A short video offering simple guidance on how the home tests should be used is available to view online here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ShFIzJtaT8
 
Anyone with COVID-19 symptoms or who returns a positive lateral flow test result should request a PCR test using the online booking request form at: https://covid19.gov.im/about-coronavirus/symptoms-and-self-assessment/
 

[Ramseyboi]

5 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

I chose Malta because their rate of vaccination (148/100) is similar to ours (143/100) and other variables aren't that different, though vaccination is the most important.  From population their numbers in hospital aren't that different, but out case numbers per head are so much higher.  That's why I suspect there are a lot of false positives in our figures.

I agree, and since the post you quoted have said in another that maybe our tests should be run both here and validated somewhere else for a period.

[Andy Onchan]

13 minutes ago, AlanShimmin said:

I want it to go well. I feel it might be going well. 

 

But then you remember who we have making the key decisions and that sends a chill down the spine. 

 

If we pull it off then it will be luck rather than leadership that has done it.

No, it's the vaccine that will have 'done it' not luck.

[BenFairfax]

17 hours ago, alpha-acid said:

I thought my writing was bad as a  Scientist, yours is just atrocious, I struggle to make sense of it maybe you are just used to writing in equations

I agree, and to avoid my issues with literacy, I have now gone with more direct message, which I truly hope does have correct grammar. Please advice if could make it clearer: 

[TheTeapot]

SHIELDER

[TheTeapot]

5 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

I agree, and to avoid my issues with literacy, I have now gone with more direct message, which I truly hope does have correct grammar. Please advice if could make it clearer: 

 

[BenFairfax]

10 hours ago, AlanShimmin said:

Perhaps it's been more widespread here than we thought. 

@BenFairfax have you had a PCR test in the last 18 months?

I have never had a PCR test, but we will start doing testing within household to try to prevent over the peak, one of out household members infecting all the rest. Not odd on. But from SAGE numbers as I recall from last year in another member of your household is COVID+ you have a ~50% change to becoming infection yourself from the member.

Regarding cases PRIOR to this wave, last year public knowledge that IoM PH had anti-body tests and half were used at some point, and other half may have been used. @wrighty may well know, and may well give us insight into % of unvaccinated with anti-bodies present due to prior infections. Regarding calibrated SEIR model, after a number of discussion what number of individuals, considering PCR+ data and models coming out of UK (which did wide scale anti-body testing), we came to conclusion that estimate of number of unvaccinated with anti-bodies due to prior infection was ~5,000 (real world not PCR+). Please I am being serious, if you have alternative ideas, with an attached argument please let me know because this input will effect size of the Natural Wave we are now experiencing.  

[The Old Git]

21 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

SHIELDER

And advise

[BenFairfax]

16 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

 

How would you phrase it? Going for something direct and clear. Did analysis of user behavior on the SEIR site from logs and bulk people want the key points and that's it.