IOM Covid removing restrictions

[TheTeapot]

I wouldn't phrase it at all, I think you are massively overreacting, that your model doesn't take account of the effect of the vaccine, that your talk the other day of body bags is dumb, that you've got yourself trapped in a whirlwind of numbers and doom, that because of this where you think you are helping you probably are not, and that you should rethink your whole approach.

But mostly I was commenting on your spelling.

[BenFairfax]

15 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

I wouldn't phrase it at all, I think you are massively overreacting, that your model doesn't take account of the effect of the vaccine, that your talk the other day of body bags is dumb, that you've got yourself trapped in a whirlwind of numbers and doom, that because of this where you think you are helping you probably are not, and that you should rethink your whole approach.

But mostly I was commenting on your spelling.

UK PH got the same message already out, and their Natural Wave peak will be in September:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/guidance-on-shielding-and-protecting-extremely-vulnerable-persons-from-covid-19/guidance-on-shielding-and-protecting-extremely-vulnerable-persons-from-covid-19

Hard to tally this with advice here to date. As with all situations, the key term is "advice", but IoM PH saying nothing it not advice. 

I know it will take some time to live this down, and I can live with raised eyebrows.

 

With SHIELDER thing, was thinking whether SHIELDERS better.

[TheTeapot]

1 minute ago, BenFairfax said:

 

 

With SHIELDER thing, was thinking whether SHIELDERS better.

Both are better than SHEILDER

 

[Ramseyboi]

56 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

But from SAGE numbers as I recall from last year in another member of your household is COVID+ you have a ~50% change to becoming infection yourself from the member.

Are none of you vaccinated? Because any of you being jabbed reduces that risk significantly.

Plenty of people in very close quarters with positive cases and not getting in.

[TheTeapot]

11 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

I know it will take some time to live this down, and I can live with raised eyebrows.

I refer you to this graph again or to wrightys post earlier saying an outbreak this size would have been about 80 patients. You are missing or vastly underestimating the vaccine effect. I don't think telling vaccinated people to shield is at all helpful, in fact I think it's straight up wrong. 

 

 

 

[Strife]

2 hours ago, Ramseyboi said:

Good friend just contacted by her regular taxi driver (not 111) that he tested positive the day after he ran her from ballaugh to the airport.

Hey ho.  Wonder how many others he had in that cab in the few days either side who he has no means of contacting.

He isn’t ill by the way.  He was contacted by another punter who developed symptoms.

Has official contact tracing by 111 been completely sacked off then? And if it has was that part of the ‘living with it’ master plan or as a reaction to an out of control situation that saw a poorly resourced 111 service quickly overwhelmed? If the later it doesn’t fill me with much confidence that we are relying on anything but luck and hope that the vaccinations will in fact do a good enough job of stopping the hospital coming under pressure.

[cissolt]

1 minute ago, Strife said:

Has official contact tracing by 111 been completely sacked off then? And if it has was that part of the ‘living with it’ master plan or as a reaction to an out of control situation that saw a poorly resourced 111 service quickly overwhelmed? If the later it doesn’t fill me with much confidence that we are relying on anything but luck and hope that the vaccinations will in fact do a good enough job of stopping the hospital coming under pressure.

It seems like it's been overwhelmed but govt won't admit it.  They never revealed how many staff are actually on 111

[Ramseyboi]

6 minutes ago, Strife said:

Has official contact tracing by 111 been completely sacked off then? And if it has was that part of the ‘living with it’ master plan or as a reaction to an out of control situation that saw a poorly resourced 111 service quickly overwhelmed? If the later it doesn’t fill me with much confidence that we are relying on anything but luck and hope that the vaccinations will in fact do a good enough job of stopping the hospital coming under pressure.

We are not relying on “luck and hope that the vaccinations will in fact do a good enough job of stopping the hospital coming under pressure”

The hospital is always under pressure.

We are relying on the scientific evidence that is all around us, and the anecdotal evidence that so far everything is OK and not a single person on this thread has so far given a valid reason why it won’t continue to be ok.

[Cambon]

2 hours ago, Ramseyboi said:

Oh.  Look at that.  False info being posted to try and make it sound worse than it really is.

I knew it was rubbish and when asked for a fact check was ignored and laughed at.

Anyway.  Government have fixed it for good now.

Edit.  Bit quoted is correct. Cambons post was wrong.  My conversation with a close relative (who is actually quite cross that their family member is being included in the figures) was ignored.

I have been searching for a podcast. Ashford (I think it was) said it on the radio on Friday morning about 10:00 am news time, I think, but it may have been Mannin line. 

[Gladys]

11 minutes ago, Strife said:

Has official contact tracing by 111 been completely sacked off then? And if it has was that part of the ‘living with it’ master plan or as a reaction to an out of control situation that saw a poorly resourced 111 service quickly overwhelmed? If the later it doesn’t fill me with much confidence that we are relying on anything but luck and hope that the vaccinations will in fact do a good enough job of stopping the hospital coming under pressure.

I have heard that there is no longer any tracking or tracing going on.

[Ramseyboi]

19 minutes ago, Cambon said:

I have been searching for a podcast. Ashford (I think it was) said it on the radio on Friday morning about 10:00 am news time, I think, but it may have been Mannin line. 

You know that Ashford saying something, immediately makes it the opposite of true right?

If that is your source, then it is a proper schoolboy error and you should know better.

Back of the class.  Right 1000 lines for the benefit off you’re education. Then watch them get shredded 

Edited July 26, 2021 by Ramseyboi

[AcousticallyChallenged]

3 hours ago, Ramseyboi said:

Oh.  Look at that.  False info being posted to try and make it sound worse than it really is.

I knew it was rubbish and when asked for a fact check was ignored and laughed at.

Anyway.  Government have fixed it for good now.

Edit.  Bit quoted is correct. Cambons post was wrong.  My conversation with a close relative (who is actually quite cross that their family member is being included in the figures) was ignored.

Ashford said in the Thursday press conference that they had all been admitted due to COVID.

[Danoo]

25 minutes ago, Gladys said:

I have heard that there is no longer any tracking or tracing going on.

Thank God for that. How to disrupt and ruin a fragile island economy with one bonkers policy making people isolate, often unnecessarily.

[Gladys]

1 minute ago, Danoo said:

Thank God for that. How to disrupt and ruin a fragile island economy with one bonkers policy making people isolate, often unnecessarily.

Agreed.  It was chit chat, but I have not received a call about being a close contact of someone who has tested positive. 

[Ham_N_Eggs]

25 minutes ago, Gladys said:

I have heard that there is no longer any tracking or tracing going on.

Yes because of this:

25 minutes ago, Gladys said:

as a reaction to an out of control situation that saw a poorly resourced 111 service quickly overwhelmed

Overwhelmed because they were all new.