IOM Covid removing restrictions

[AlanShimmin]

Does anyone know where we stand with the current hospital capacity? 

I asked Ashford and was told the red line would be 30 in hospital + 6 ICU. But that was a month or so ago. 

Just interested to see how we're progressing. 

[snowman]

1 minute ago, AlanShimmin said:

Does anyone know where we stand with the current hospital capacity? 

I asked Ashford and was told the red line would be 30 in hospital + 6 ICU. But that was a month or so ago. 

Just interested to see how we're progressing. 

Haven't you got anything better to do?

[John Wright]

9 hours ago, germann said:

No they don't. Not even close to complying with any international standards. The PCR certificate isn't even formatted to a single page. Maybe that's why they made it editable... 😔

The question was rhetorical. I raised digital secure passes with Ashie in March.

[Ramseyboi]

Just pondering while sat on Laxey prom.

What happened to the swimmer bloke?  Did that just drop off the radar and get buried?

[Boris Johnson]

22 minutes ago, AlanShimmin said:

Does anyone know where we stand with the current hospital capacity? 

I asked Ashford and was told the red line would be 30 in hospital + 6 ICU. But that was a month or so ago. 

Just interested to see how we're progressing. 

Well that was a lie as we only have 6 ICU beds.

They claim that they can make more (ICU BEDS) and maybe they can but they don't have the staff to man them.

The islands hospital is, as I have said before on numerous occasions, not fit for purpose.

Just hope you never have to use it for anything that is life threating.

Edited July 30, 2021 by Boris Johnson

[AlanShimmin]

20 minutes ago, snowman said:

Haven't you got anything better to do?

At this exact moment in time, no.

[MadAsHell]

30 minutes ago, Ramseyboi said:

Just pondering while sat on Laxey prom.

What happened to the swimmer bloke?  Did that just drop off the radar and get buried?

In court early August

[BenFairfax]

7 hours ago, Dougie said:

New cases in the 70+ category, most of whom should have had 2 jabs, seem to be rising relatively more rapidly than most - cases have roughly trebled in the last couple of weeks. Are they just taking less care, or is there a more serious, underlying reason? Is the effect of the vaccine wearing off?

Regarding the vaccine wane I attach below, from:

https://acmedsci.ac.uk/file-download/4747802

Royal society judgement in central case natural immunity last a year (versus 3 years for vaccine), so unless kids vaccinated they will likely go through the same process in a years time.

I am concerned about rise of 70+ cases and as you say nearly all 2+2, the total number 70+ active COVID increased by 10 today. Really not good, everything should be done to prevent this group from becoming infected during this wave. In terms of reaching herd immunity a notion implied from SEIR Model there is no advantaged in additional infections of 2+2s. 

 

[TheTeapot]

For anyone still wondering where we're going, and what living with it actually means, here's a short 7 tweet thread explaining it in really simple to understand words.

 

 

[747-400]

33 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

For anyone still wondering where we're going, and what living with it actually means, here's a short 7 tweet thread explaining it in really simple to understand words.

 

 

So true. Thanks for sharing. 

Mesages like this the Government and responsible media should be sharing. 

[AcousticallyChallenged]

The NHS figures have been published for the past month in England of people in hospital with vs due to COVID.

As it stands, it's about 77% because of COVID.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

[Barlow]

12 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

The NHS figures have been published for the past month in England of people in hospital with vs due to COVID.

 

There's a  significant difference of course, but we mustn't lose sight of the importance of those 'with', as the hospital must isolate those people. There is further strain on medical services that goes with that.

[BenFairfax]

On 7/22/2021 at 12:26 PM, wrighty said:

You use a hospitalisation rate of 1.23%.  The slider on the website is quite granular, at least on my computer, and the neighbouring options would be 0.43% or 2.04%, with nothing in between.  How have you chosen 1.23%?

The real world rate we are experiencing now is running a little over the number I would expect from 1.23% at this stage from the SEIR Model. Though I phrased model in terms of unvaccinated*, which as we know is only thing which counts regarding getting to Herd Immunity, I was anticipating some seepage to vaccinated. My warnings to high-risk 2+2 to take mitigations has been repeated even incessantly for several weeks now. I assume in IoM based on UK data 'because COVID' admissions are 75% of the total 'with COVID' cohort (i.e. 25% COVID admissions are for other reasons). Think you guys in circumstances are doing a great job, newspaper presented a controversy (fair enough their call) but I see difference in view as move of a part of healthy discussions. 

[* I smudged public model because I choose to not be in a position were I ended up talking about mortality risk.]

Here is the latest version of the banner, enjoy:

 

[BenFairfax]

On 7/22/2021 at 12:26 PM, wrighty said:

The slider on the website is quite granular, at least on my computer, and the neighbouring options would be 0.43% or 2.04%, with nothing in between.

Sorry I forgot to say, you can pass the model parameters within URL, here is my original calibrated SEIR Model of the IoM Wave:

https://epcalc-ten.vercel.app/?CFR=0.000&D_hospital_lag=6&D_incbation=5.2&D_infectious=2.9&D_recovery_mild=11.1&D_recovery_severe=6.00&I0=1&InterventionAmt=0.33333333333333337&InterventionTime=37&P_SEVERE=0.01&R0=3.35&Time_to_death=32&logN=9.601368434322 

Where the parameters are:

CFR= Case Fatility rate
D_hospital_lag=Time to hospitalization
D_recovery_mild=Recovery in days from mild disease
InterventionTime=Days after Day 0 when intervention occurs.
InterventionAmt=The percentage of the shifted 'effective R' in relation to initial R.
logN=Natural Log of the starting susceptible population 
IO=Number of initial infections

D_incbation=Days after exposure in incubation.
D_infectious=Days after incubation are infectious.
D_recovery_mild=Recovery in days from mild disease
InterventionTime=Days after Day 0 when intervention is taken.
logN=Natural Log of the starting susceptible population 
IO=Number of initial infections

When modeling I do not fit the model to data. What I did was try to understand through the SEIR Model framework the fundamental drivers of the IoM wave. Based on the properties of the Isle of Man social networks, expected societal reactions; in addition to estimates of organic properties of the virus and known demographics, I calibrated the SEIR model. If the model diverged significantly from the real-world situation, I would not shift parameters to fit the data, but return to my original assumptions and try to understand what conceptual error I had made or influences I have missed. The purpose of the model is not only to provide predictions for the cases, hospitalisation and duration but also to get a handle on what is driving these numbers.

[2112]

On a separate note, has anyone been to the Southern Agricultural Show today. I was talking to someone who normally attends and needless to say they aren’t going. Low key coverage on Manx Radio. Though I could be wrong and it’s packed out.