2112 Posted July 31, 2021 Share Posted July 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, BenFairfax said: Sorry I forgot to say, you can pass the model parameters within URL, here is my original calibrated SEIR Model of the IoM Wave: https://epcalc-ten.vercel.app/?CFR=0.000&D_hospital_lag=6&D_incbation=5.2&D_infectious=2.9&D_recovery_mild=11.1&D_recovery_severe=6.00&I0=1&InterventionAmt=0.33333333333333337&InterventionTime=37&P_SEVERE=0.01&R0=3.35&Time_to_death=32&logN=9.601368434322 Where the parameters are: CFR= Case Fatility rate D_hospital_lag=Time to hospitalization D_recovery_mild=Recovery in days from mild disease InterventionTime=Days after Day 0 when intervention occurs. InterventionAmt=The percentage of the shifted 'effective R' in relation to initial R. logN=Natural Log of the starting susceptible population IO=Number of initial infections D_incbation=Days after exposure in incubation. D_infectious=Days after incubation are infectious. D_recovery_mild=Recovery in days from mild disease InterventionTime=Days after Day 0 when intervention is taken. logN=Natural Log of the starting susceptible population IO=Number of initial infections When modeling I do not fit the model to data. What I did was try to understand through the SEIR Model framework the fundamental drivers of the IoM wave. Based on the properties of the Isle of Man social networks, expected societal reactions; in addition to estimates of organic properties of the virus and known demographics, I calibrated the SEIR model. If the model diverged significantly from the real-world situation, I would not shift parameters to fit the data, but return to my original assumptions and try to understand what conceptual error I had made or influences I have missed. The purpose of the model is not only to provide predictions for the cases, hospitalisation and duration but also to get a handle on what is driving these numbers. ? WTF. Sorry Ben I am a simple man, whilst I am University Educated and hold a degree, I like simple information, rather than being blinded by bullshit (even if it’s true, it’s unintelligible to people who are not scientifically minded) Good post but would rather short precis. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramseyboi Posted July 31, 2021 Share Posted July 31, 2021 10 minutes ago, 2112 said: On a separate note, has anyone been to the Southern Agricultural Show today. I was talking to someone who normally attends and needless to say they aren’t going. Low key coverage on Manx Radio. Though I could be wrong and it’s packed out. No idea why anyone wouldn’t go to an outdoor event? Police we’re advising of tailbacks before 12 so sounds busy. No reason why it wouldn’t be is there? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2112 Posted July 31, 2021 Share Posted July 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ramseyboi said: No idea why anyone wouldn’t go to an outdoor event? Police we’re advising of tailbacks before 12 so sounds busy. No reason why it wouldn’t be is there? I only thought was due to Covid-19. I suppose all those MHKs who jumped up and down howling in protest at the current relaxation of regulations, are waving their Government passes for a freebie, and attending? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenFairfax Posted July 31, 2021 Share Posted July 31, 2021 22 minutes ago, 2112 said: ? WTF. Sorry Ben I am a simple man, whilst I am University Educated and hold a degree, I like simple information, rather than being blinded by bullshit (even if it’s true, it’s unintelligible to people who are not scientifically minded) Good post but would rather short precis. I could not agree more, all people need to know is the following, and people can choose what is right for them and their family. I suggested to my 76yo father to 'Netflix & chill' for next few weeks and my 10yo daughter is going on bus each day (in a mask naturally to protect others) to a holiday club party mayhem for next 3 weeks. Which is the right setup for our situation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrighty Posted July 31, 2021 Share Posted July 31, 2021 44 minutes ago, 2112 said: On a separate note, has anyone been to the Southern Agricultural Show today. I was talking to someone who normally attends and needless to say they aren’t going. Low key coverage on Manx Radio. Though I could be wrong and it’s packed out. I’ve been. Very spread out but I’d guess the number attending is several thousand. Only stayed an hour or so, with queues coming in as we left. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTeapot Posted July 31, 2021 Share Posted July 31, 2021 47 minutes ago, 2112 said: On a separate note, has anyone been to the Southern Agricultural Show today. I was talking to someone who normally attends and needless to say they aren’t going. Low key coverage on Manx Radio. Though I could be wrong and it’s packed out. It's not that busy, but it's very well spaced out at the new site. Shame about the rain. Might go back tomorrow if the weather is better Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTeapot Posted July 31, 2021 Share Posted July 31, 2021 On the subject of the show though, here are a couple of pictures for you One of those is more intelligent than the other. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTeapot Posted July 31, 2021 Share Posted July 31, 2021 Woah they're big. Hmmm, sorry about that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadAsHell Posted July 31, 2021 Share Posted July 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, TheTeapot said: On the subject of the show though, here are a couple of pictures for you One of those is more intelligent than the other. Prize turnip? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2112 Posted July 31, 2021 Share Posted July 31, 2021 33 minutes ago, MadAsHell said: Prize turnip? That’s easy ………………… HRH The Chief Minister. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barlow Posted July 31, 2021 Share Posted July 31, 2021 20 minutes ago, 2112 said: That’s easy ………………… HRH The Chief Minister. 2112 exercising his right to use the phrase "HRH The Chief Minister" wherever possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcousticallyChallenged Posted July 31, 2021 Share Posted July 31, 2021 An interesting publication from the psychology dept at the University of Sydney... Quote A new University of Sydney study assessed people’s behaviours and attitudes towards pandemic regulations in Australia, the UK, the US, and Canada. It found that roughly 10 percent of people were noncompliant. Those individuals were mostly male, less agreeable (cooperative, considerate), less intellectual as a personality trait (less willing to try new experiences), and more extroverted. Published in high-ranking journal PLOS ONE, the study also found that these people tended to prioritise freedom and their own self-interest. They also perceived their social culture as tolerant to variation in values and behavior, with greater tolerance for deviance. Contrary to the stereotype, most of them were not young. They also tended to engage less with official sources, such as government announcements and news and engaged more in unhealthy coping strategies such as denial and substance abuse. https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2021/07/30/what-psychology-says-about-covid-non-compliers.html 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlanShimmin Posted July 31, 2021 Share Posted July 31, 2021 5 hours ago, BenFairfax said: The real world rate we are experiencing now is running a little over the number I would expect from 1.23% at this stage from the SEIR Model. Though I phrased model in terms of unvaccinated*, which as we know is only thing which counts regarding getting to Herd Immunity, I was anticipating some seepage to vaccinated. My warnings to high-risk 2+2 to take mitigations has been repeated even incessantly for several weeks now. I assume in IoM based on UK data 'because COVID' admissions are 75% of the total 'with COVID' cohort (i.e. 25% COVID admissions are for other reasons). Think you guys in circumstances are doing a great job, newspaper presented a controversy (fair enough their call) but I see difference in view as move of a part of healthy discussions. [* I smudged public model because I choose to not be in a position were I ended up talking about mortality risk.] Here is the latest version of the banner, enjoy: That's an awfully long winded way of saying your model is (as expected) wrong. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nom de plume Posted July 31, 2021 Share Posted July 31, 2021 On my holidays guys, apologies for not dipping in. Are we shipping the ventilators back? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSM Posted August 1, 2021 Share Posted August 1, 2021 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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