IOM Covid removing restrictions

[BenFairfax]

On 7/22/2021 at 12:41 AM, Annoymouse said:

Right, my confusion was they can’t actually test that many in 24hrs, but I see what your saying, that’s how many are likely to be infected regardless of what the daily testing says, interesting stuff.

On our actual testing platform what is the highest number of active cases we will be likely to see? These 200+cases a day will be dropping off just as rapidly as they went on in 3 weeks time, I can’t see the active cases going much higher than say 3000-4000 active cases personally, that’s assuming we have consistent numbers of 200+ each day.

Main thing uncertain off in the model when put together 8th July, was the degree of "freak out", I knew sorts of numbers we would see people would jump issue was I did not know but how much. Originally, I put in 'effective R = 1.1' from 3.35, but now after cycling around and see very few out I am thinking more like 'effective R = 0.73' now, almost like a lockdown for older groups (at least), here are the number is that case:

https://epcalc-ten.vercel.app/?CFR=0.000&D_hospital_lag=6&D_incbation=5.2&D_infectious=2.9&D_recovery_mild=11.1&D_recovery_severe=6.00&I0=1&InterventionAmt=0.2&InterventionTime=37&P_SEVERE=0.0123&R0=3.65&Time_to_death=32&logN=9.601368434322

Nobles numbers sadly will be worse before get better, and so 'effective R = 0.73' likely continue for a bit, and then revert back. The net effect is tail be shorter, wave collapse faster. 

[snowman]

USA CDC and Prevention has issued a do not travel advisory for the Isle of Man

[Numbnuts]

4 minutes ago, snowman said:

USA CDC and Prevention has issued a do not travel advisory for the Isle of Man

Be interesting to see what Howie and Ashford have to say about this.  

[Ramseyboi]

11 minutes ago, snowman said:

USA CDC and Prevention has issued a do not travel advisory for the Isle of Man

And Ireland, the UK, Spain, Portugal......

Just crap reporting again by the press

 

Edited August 2, 2021 by Ramseyboi

[2112]

39 minutes ago, Numbnuts said:

Be interesting to see what Howie and Ashford have to say about this.  

I bet it’s aimed at Elon Musk.

HRH The Chief Minister will be having hissy fits and no doubt blaming everyone. Ashford will try and spin things. 

[BenFairfax]

3 hours ago, wrighty said:

So, although it is possible to say out of the 19 patients in hospital how many are vaxxed and how many aren't, I'm not sure as a single figure it is that helpful, without the sort of context above that I've just invented, and to do so in real life risks giving away medical information which as we know is not the done thing.

My thinking is at aggregate level you can compare the peak exposure with peak bed occupancy. In Jersey, the difference was 8 days. Which implies mostly young admitted, if same applies here peak in 4-5 days. However IoM bed occupancy is running at a higher rate (per exposure) and would imply more seepage from mass infection in young to older groups (or younger with comorbidities). As discussed in effect unvax regarding risk just scales your age up (i.e. can cannot distinguish between 50yo unvax and 80yo vax). Though reverse out all comorbidities etc, is hard going, we can consider inverse problem at aggregate level.

You know I made sure had bit of slack with days in hospital at 9.4, and was thinking when closed nursing homes, would cause Nobles problem with discharging. But my 2 cents is Manx Care did the right thing, where we are now.

[As side note: Going back to model you know I put in 'effective R = 1.1' on Day 37 (July 31st), reflecting expectation of people "freaking out", and going around South and how risk averse people are here, we have lockdown lite, and thinking R=0.7 be closer. Just thought throw that in. Here is model in that case, and assume school period more ramped in this case:

https://epcalc-ten.vercel.app/?CFR=0.000&D_hospital_lag=6&D_incbation=5.2&D_infectious=2.9&D_recovery_mild=11.1&D_recovery_severe=6.00&I0=1&InterventionAmt=0.2&InterventionTime=37&P_SEVERE=0.0123&R0=3.65&Time_to_death=32&logN=9.601368434322

]  

 

[BenFairfax]

3 hours ago, offshoremanxman said:

I’m not confusing anything with anything really. There are a lot of social media people who have built up whole audiences by pushing fear who it would seem might still incentivized to push a fear agenda to keep their followers. There’s nothing wrong in pointing that out.

We are all victims of Social Media algorithms, even MF has a like button. If MF wanted to focus on the message, rather than turn us all into 'attention seeking freaks' then it would remove the like button. So whether we are, or are not attention seeking freaks, such behavior is being endorsed by MFs. There are now very few places on internet where the message is what counts rather than the celebrity. I get sucked into equating the value of someone's views with the number of followers/likes etc Sorry, bit off topic, but I miss the days when the message was all that counted.   

[NoTailT]

Not sure if already posted, but interesting progress down in the CIs.

https://www.itv.com/news/channel/2021-08-02/exclusive-digital-covid-passports-imminent-for-jersey-and-guernsey

[Apple]

3 hours ago, BenFairfax said:

But my 2 cents is Manx Care did the right thing, where we are now.

Did you factor in anything for political interference ? The issue of home closures has not gone down very well I understand.

[Hmmmm]

2 hours ago, NoTailT said:

Not sure if already posted, but interesting progress down in the CIs.

https://www.itv.com/news/channel/2021-08-02/exclusive-digital-covid-passports-imminent-for-jersey-and-guernsey

Can see  Quayle and Ashford taking this option.   They do like to follow the CI

Viz:

Officials are planning to “piggyback” on the UK’s system though don’t plan to use the NHS app.

Islanders will be issued with a QR code, that will confirm a person’s vaccination status, that will be valid for use in countries around the world where the UK has struck agreements.

[Hmmmm]

2 hours ago, Apple said:

Did you factor in anything for political interference ? The issue of home closures has not gone down very well I understand.

The six homes are all run under the auspices of Manx Care, who seem to have a very different approach to that of their Minister or Comin.  What is the situation with the privately run homes - some restrictions?

[Ham_N_Eggs]

37 minutes ago, Hmmmm said:

They do like to follow the CI

The pretence of following that approach was dropped a few weeks ago and now they're openly following anything England does. 

They'll keep on trying to get on the NHS England app and failing.

[Happier diner]

11 hours ago, rachomics said:

You're mistaking scientific evidence/data for fear. A significant proportion of our population are still unvaccinated and the disease hasn't changed with regards to hospitalisations and deaths in the unvaccinated since the first lockdown in April 2020. It's not over yet and if there's one thing I can do to help mitigate this shit show, it's to use my followers to spread accurate messaging. 

 

You are of course quite correct. At the time of our opening up(which I supported) I posted that it was too gung ho to just think it was ok to do that with no mitigations at all, especially as we did not have enough % of population properly vaccinated.

Now we have that greater % vaccinated but with a situation where the infection rate is clearly higher than goverment can stomach we are bringing in simple and effective  mitigations. Too late?

[WTF]

11 hours ago, wrighty said:

I've been looking into this today, and this might turn into a long post.  If you're expecting an answer as simple as x out 19 then sorry, can't give you one.  Some of the people in hospital with covid are double vaccinated, some are not.

It's actually very difficult to answer the wider question of who is in hospital with covid, and who is in because of it.  There are obvious cases at each end of the spectrum.  For example (and this, like all cases here, is fictitious - any resemblance to actual people in hospital is coincidental), if a middle aged man is admitted with a broken ankle sustained while out running and happens to test positive, but had no covid related symptoms, we'd all agree he's in 'with' covid but 'because of' a broken ankle.  If another middle aged man is admitted due to shortness of breath, low oxygen saturations and a hacking cough, who tests positive, we'd all probably agree he's in 'because of' covid as well as 'with' covid.

They're simple examples.  What about an elderly nursing home resident who comes in after a bump on the head having fallen over.  Tests positive.  Was the fall due to covid, or not?  Arguable either way.  Whatever the decision, the covid positivity means they can't be discharged back to the home until testing negative.  How about a patient with multiple medical problems including heart failure and diabetes, double vaccinated, but comes in as they're a bit dehydrated and confused due to the hot weather. Tests positive, but no symptoms at all in the chest that they don't normally have, with their normal oxygen saturation.  Does it count or not?

So, although it is possible to say out of the 19 patients in hospital how many are vaxxed and how many aren't, I'm not sure as a single figure it is that helpful, without the sort of context above that I've just invented, and to do so in real life risks giving away medical information which as we know is not the done thing.

Some themes that I can divulge - Unvaccinated patients are generally sicker than vaccinated.  Vaccinated patients are generally older, and more likely to be admitted for reasons that are not purely down to covid.  And as we've seen in the UK data, for patients in hospital with covid, a higher proportion are unvaccinated than in the general population.  And we can't use generic length of stay figures, because 'dischargability' is influenced by covid status and discharge destination.  A patient may be well enough to go after a couple of days, but may have nowhere to go so stays in.

thanks,  unsurprisingly we didn't get to hear about all these distinctions a long time ago when it wouldn't have suited the states agenda.

Edited August 3, 2021 by WTF

[snowman]

It's an irrelevant distraction