IOM Covid removing restrictions

[wrighty]

10 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

If you're a cruise liner requiring negative tests before boarding, you aren't going to want to suddenly let people run around willy nilly where it is very prevalent.

If we’re the most covid positive ‘nation’ on earth, surely we should be welcoming all comers to take some of it away?

[Banker]

1 hour ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

If you're a cruise liner requiring negative tests before boarding, you aren't going to want to suddenly let people run around willy nilly where it is very prevalent.

On UK cruises at present they are only allowing passengers off in organized tours so no running around Willy nilly & mixing with local plague carriers!!

[BenFairfax]

2 hours ago, Apple said:

I know nothing about modelling but just how did you try and take into accounts peoples behaviour when they have to act against their better judgement say. Be interested to know please.

I knew that the case numbers we would see, had good idea when acute outcomes would occur, and by considering past waves behaviors, on 8th July nailed in colors to the date 31st July (and stuck with it). The government I assume at direction of Public Health England were happy to ramp this wave, as much as possible, but clear that at some point particularly when we had acute outcomes people would freak out. The freak out date, naturally ties into the peak of exposure.

Once you got a data, next you want to estimate a level. @wrighty told me my 'effective R =1.1' implied a lockdown lite, which I think is roughly what we have. I was expecting a big reaction because of the scale of the wave by 31st. After going around trying to grasp peoples reaction I think 1.1, may underestimate the reaction. In finance you measure freak out level, or the happy/depressed type of metrics, which feed into other things, but here I was faced with trying to predict the level of freak out. So I guess in part at least purely subjective estimate, I was expecting binary response, one minute happy to mix in crowds, the next 50% population gone into lockdown.

[AlanShimmin]

4 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

I knew that the case numbers we would see, had good idea when acute outcomes would occur, and by considering past waves behaviors, on 8th July nailed in colors to the date 31st July (and stuck with it). The government I assume at direction of Public Health England were happy to ramp this wave, as much as possible, but clear that at some point particularly when we had acute outcomes people would freak out. The freak out date, naturally ties into the peak of exposure.

Once you got a data, next you want to estimate a level. @wrighty told me my 'effective R =1.1' implied a lockdown lite, which I think is roughly what we have. I was expecting a big reaction because of the scale of the wave by 31st. After going around trying to grasp peoples reaction I think 1.1, may underestimate the reaction. In finance you measure freak out level, or the happy/depressed type of metrics, which feed into other things, but here I was faced with trying to predict the level of freak out. So I guess in part at least purely subjective estimate, I was expecting binary response, one minute happy to mix in crowds, the next 50% population gone into lockdown

All complete bollocks. 

Edited August 3, 2021 by AlanShimmin

[NoTailT]

6 minutes ago, AlanShimmin said:

All complete bollocks. 

I feel like I've just read Dr Who explaining how the Tardis works.

[Numbnuts]

1 minute ago, NoTailT said:

I feel like I've just read Dr Who explaining how the Tardis works.

While eating rice crispies 

[wrighty]

1 hour ago, BenFairfax said:

I knew that the case numbers we would see, had good idea when acute outcomes would occur, and by considering past waves behaviors, on 8th July nailed in colors to the date 31st July (and stuck with it). The government I assume at direction of Public Health England were happy to ramp this wave, as much as possible, but clear that at some point particularly when we had acute outcomes people would freak out. The freak out date, naturally ties into the peak of exposure.

Once you got a data, next you want to estimate a level. @wrighty told me my 'effective R =1.1' implied a lockdown lite, which I think is roughly what we have. I was expecting a big reaction because of the scale of the wave by 31st. After going around trying to grasp peoples reaction I think 1.1, may underestimate the reaction. In finance you measure freak out level, or the happy/depressed type of metrics, which feed into other things, but here I was faced with trying to predict the level of freak out. So I guess in part at least purely subjective estimate, I was expecting binary response, one minute happy to mix in crowds, the next 50% population gone into lockdown.

I can’t remember my quote, but to get R=1.1 overnight down from 3.35 that would mean mandatory measures. Whatever we’re seeing, it ain’t that. Behaviour now, as far as I can tell, is “Covid? Meh!” - apart from the odd mask there’s nothing. 
 

I think we genuinely peaked in cases just over a week ago. If we’re seeing effective R at 1.1 it’s due to herd immunity. There also does not appear to be a massive hike in hospital admissions.  Bed occupancy in the hospital is climbing, but I think this is in part due to difficulty with discharge rather than wards filling up with patients on ventilators. 

[Apple]

8 hours ago, BenFairfax said:

In finance you measure freak out level, or the happy/depressed type of metrics, which feed into other things, but here I was faced with trying to predict the level of freak out. So I guess in part at least purely subjective estimate, I was expecting binary response, one minute happy to mix in crowds, the next 50% population gone into lockdown.

@BenFairfax. Thanks for this. Now that makes a bit more more sense to me. 

[Ramseyboi]

And here comes Hurst! He's got...

Some people are on the pitch!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58078900

[Ramseyboi]

So now we are more vulnerable to flu and other infections due to lockdowns (which was pretty obvious, and raised as a concern by many) so are we now in a cycle where the public will now expect masks and lockdowns when flu inevitably comes back with a vengeance? 

 

“

At the moment there are fewer than 100 a day on average. To put that into context, during a bad flu season there can be more than 100 deaths and around 1,000 hospital admissions every day for months on end. 

And therein lies the problem. Lockdowns and social distancing meant flu and other respiratory infections were hardly present last winter, meaning there is likely to be lower immunity in the population than normal.

"If they return on the scale we expect we could see really major pressures build on the NHS that could raise some very difficult questions," says Dr Tildesley.

[monasqueen]

13 minutes ago, Ramseyboi said:

during a bad flu season there can be more than 100 deaths and around 1,000 hospital admissions every day for months on end. 

What, in the IOM???

[Ramseyboi]

4 minutes ago, monasqueen said:

What, in the IOM???

Obviously not

[Hmmmm]

Well EAG group still advising Comin with some obvious but nonetheless sensible questions, particularly around employment and schools returning.

https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/lft-supplies-need-increasing-significantly/

[Ramseyboi]

1 minute ago, Hmmmm said:

Well EAG group still advising Comin with some obvious but nonetheless sensible questions, particularly around employment and schools returning.

https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/lft-supplies-need-increasing-significantly/

Nah.  Just do the same as we do for every other illness.

If you are to ill to work stay at home, otherwise crack on as normal and stop all the pointless testing. There is no evidence here or in UK that a vaccinated population isn’t able to cope and if we keep up with this nonsense where does it ever end?

I can already see a future where a sneeze sees you chased out of the office or pub.  It’s insane.

Last year we needed to see how it worked out and wait for jabs.  Now we need to forget about it and get back to normal ASAP.

Problem is that so many people are now so scared despite absolutely tiny risks that the general public will no longer see any risk of flu or COVID killing people as acceptable.

 

[Banker]

7 minutes ago, Hmmmm said:

Well EAG group still advising Comin with some obvious but nonetheless sensible questions, particularly around employment and schools returning.

https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/lft-supplies-need-increasing-significantly/

We’ve just got to get on with life, schools aren’t back for another 4 weeks & hopefully cases will be very much reduced by then. 
UK cases falling despite forecast of 100k+ Per day , 16&17 year olds to be vaccinated soon to reduce infections/transmission