IOM Covid removing restrictions

[Cambon]

1 hour ago, Banker said:

We’ve just got to get on with life, schools aren’t back for another 4 weeks & hopefully cases will be very much reduced by then. 
UK cases falling despite forecast of 100k+ Per day , 16&17 year olds to be vaccinated soon to reduce infections/transmission 

To a degree, you and Ramseyboi are correct. Vaccinations of the over 18s has been very good, but it is stalling now as it seems there are around 8000 who cannot or will not be vaccinated. But we are at around 2/3 of the population double vaccinated and second jabs still being done. Add to that a few thousand recent active cases and we are pretty much at herd immunity. 

As for 12-18 year olds, I think the resistance from parents will be the issue. It will be interesting to see. 

[TheTeapot]

Oh no, it shouldn't be compulsory. Strongly advised though.

[AlanShimmin]

26 minutes ago, Little Jeanie said:

The only reasons the numbers aren't as high as the other week's 200+ daily numbers is that that people are not bothering with 111 and PCR tests anymore so the daily number we are getting is not accurate by quite a lot. I know of so many people who are just using lateral flow tests, isolating and then cracking on once the 10 days and negative lateral flow tests are out of the way.....it appears (from my personal anecdotal evidence plus everyone I am speaking to) the bulk of people are doing this. In no way has this peaked yet and unfortunately, due to the way they have made getting a PCR test such a faff, we are not going to have accurrate numbers to be able accurrate assessments.

If that's the case that people aren't bothering with PCR tests, which I suspect it is. Then it's excellent. Those people obviously aren't getting seriously ill... wasn't that the whole aim to start with?

[BenFairfax]

12 minutes ago, Little Jeanie said:

The only reasons the numbers aren't as high as the other week's 200+ daily numbers is that that people are not bothering with 111 and PCR tests anymore so the daily number we are getting is not accurate by quite a lot. I know of so many people who are just using lateral flow tests, isolating and then cracking on once the 10 days and negative lateral flow tests are out of the way.....it appears (from my personal anecdotal evidence plus everyone I am speaking to) the bulk of people are doing this. In no way has this peaked yet and unfortunately, due to the way they have made getting a PCR test such a faff, we are not going to have accurrate numbers to be able accurrate assessments.

I always considered the hospital admissions as the only data point I could reasonably believe was a realistic reflection of reality. I completely agree with your points regarding testing and what exactly is in it for the individual to go for a PCR test, rather than just doing decent thinking and isolating until (at least) return negative LFT. Once COVID+ fully resting also reduces the likelihood of developing Long COVID.

Regarding the peak, using SEIR model framework possible to get peak a few days after 31st, but soon the wave just runs out of hosts and peaks because of this rather than in part lack of hosts and in part change in behaviour. Now just in terms of model, very very unlikely peak not past, do not take my work for try moving parameter around:

https://sites.google.com/webcabcomponents.com/seir-model-of-iom-natural-wave/seir-model-live?authuser=0

[Out of the blue]

As I see it, the current situation on the island is that the virus is circulating uncontrolled on the island, generally affecting the younger unvaccinated members of society. A proportion of the public are still trying to do what they think is expected of them, as has been drilled into them for the past year, which is test when symptomatic and isolate. Although laudable, I do not believe that this is now doing anything to check the virus as it too deep rooted in society to be stopped (unless we went into another lockdown). Rather than spend ridiculous amounts of money on LFT tests, the border force and disrupting society by isolating I think we are at the point that to coin a phrase, 'we let it rip'.  In my opinion all of the mentioned measures are now ineffectual. I would rather the support and resource is given directly to those genuinely vulnerable. We appear to be in a stage of the pandemic where half hearted measures are satisfying no one. 

[On the inside]

If you take the Abottswood factor out of the data (if you can) then are matters worst or better now?

[BenFairfax]

6 minutes ago, Out of the blue said:

I would rather the support and resource is given directly to those genuinely vulnerable. We appear to be in a stage of the pandemic where half hearted measures are satisfying no one. 

Total agree and regarding messaging IOMG should of treated us like adults and said:

We going for a natural wave with mass infection in young, 2+2s please keep out the way (particularly high-risk ones) because 2+2 infections add nothing to 2+2 equivalence required for Herd Immunity.

 

[wrighty]

58 minutes ago, Little Jeanie said:

The only reasons the numbers aren't as high as the other week's 200+ daily numbers is that that people are not bothering with 111 and PCR tests anymore so the daily number we are getting is not accurate by quite a lot. I know of so many people who are just using lateral flow tests, isolating and then cracking on once the 10 days and negative lateral flow tests are out of the way.....it appears (from my personal anecdotal evidence plus everyone I am speaking to) the bulk of people are doing this. In no way has this peaked yet and unfortunately, due to the way they have made getting a PCR test such a faff, we are not going to have accurrate numbers to be able accurrate assessments.

It's certainly possible that case ascertainment (the proportion of true cases we detect by PCR) is reduced, by people not bothering with tests, or using LFTs, or at one point the PCR capacity being swamped.  I still believe however that we have peaked, as they have in the UK.  Hospital admissions don't seem to be ramping up massively, which in any case is the main thing.

[wrighty]

29 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

I always considered the hospital admissions as the only data point I could reasonably believe was a realistic reflection of reality. I completely agree with your points regarding testing and what exactly is in it for the individual to go for a PCR test, rather than just doing decent thinking and isolating until (at least) return negative LFT. Once COVID+ fully resting also reduces the likelihood of developing Long COVID.

Regarding the peak, using SEIR model framework possible to get peak a few days after 31st, but soon the wave just runs out of hosts and peaks because of this rather than in part lack of hosts and in part change in behaviour. Now just in terms of model, very very unlikely peak not past, do not take my work for try moving parameter around:

https://sites.google.com/webcabcomponents.com/seir-model-of-iom-natural-wave/seir-model-live?authuser=0

I would have agreed with you regarding hospital admissions, however having looked into them recently I understand that even those figures are not necessarily reliable and are open to interpretation.  Covid is certainly affecting the admission and discharge profile at the hospital right now, but it's pretty much impossible to declare individual cases as 'admitted due to covid' or 'admitted with covid'.  Covid positivity also affects length of stay, with some patients medically ready to go home, but can't because of covid.

 

 

[BenFairfax]

10 hours ago, wrighty said:

I can’t remember my quote, but to get R=1.1 overnight down from 3.35 that would mean mandatory measures. Whatever we’re seeing, it ain’t that. Behaviour now, as far as I can tell, is “Covid? Meh!” - apart from the odd mask there’s nothing. 

I mentioned in ideal world R(t) (R function of time), but then you end up with non-linear system of which implementation becomes lot more demanding. You end up having to use Monte Carlo simulation. However as I mentioned I could smudge this and get same effect with R=1.1 at Day 37. An even more refined model would be if R was a function time, cases, acute disease, fatalities. With models they form part of the public messaging, or at least should and a coherent narrative will need to be presented to the public.

Regarding the message to 'crack on', I imagine that was the direction of Public Health England gave local representatives regarding message to be repeat to the population, to get the level of infections needed for Herd Immunity. Not saying that right or wrong, just that makes perfect sense for the programs messaging. The reactions are a range on the ground, but that was case with all the waves, excluding first one. What I can say for sure if we went into strict lockdown 26th until 2nd; in accordance with our agreed mitigation to the events occurring in the IoM.

[Ham_N_Eggs]

1 hour ago, AlanShimmin said:

If that's the case that people aren't bothering with PCR tests, which I suspect it is. Then it's excellent. Those people obviously aren't getting seriously ill... wasn't that the whole aim to start with?

I have heard that people are actually being told by 111, after a positive LFT, just to isolate for 10 days and not to have a PCR test. The problem with this is that there is no legal obligation on them to isolate. 

Hiding the issue is not dealing with it.

[Utah 01]

52 minutes ago, wrighty said:

Covid positivity also affects length of stay, with some patients medically ready to go home, but can't because of covid.

Got the first 2 bits but you've lost me on the last.

[AlanShimmin]

52 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

mentioned in ideal world R(t) (R function of time), but then you end up with non-linear system of which implementation becomes lot more demanding. You end up having to use Monte Carlo simulation. However as I mentioned I could smudge this and get same effect with R=1.1 at Day 37. An even more refined model would be if R was a function time, cases, acute disease, fatalities. With models they form part of the public messaging, or at least should and a coherent narrative will need to be presented to the public.

Pure shite yet again. We don't live in an ideal world. 

[CallMeCurious]

2 minutes ago, Ham_N_Eggs said:

I have heard that people are actually being told by 111, after a positive LFT, just to isolate for 10 days and not to have a PCR test. The problem with this is that there is no legal obligation on them to isolate. 

Hiding the issue is not dealing with it.

The number of infections is meaningless now as it is no longer being measured in reality. all that matters is the number in ICU and the remaining capacity there. And even then, now we have some backup capacity back in the UK.

Why after 18-20 months of very hard times would anyone with even a hint of a sniffle ring 111 to be told to take another 10 days off unpaid again? Thats even assuming you coudl get through of course. Frankly, we did our best, we got jabbed (the only realistic way out ) and now we are in the endgame.

It may play out longer than we like but if we get out of this with less than 80 fatalities out of 80,000 population. 0.1% in 2 years. Compare 15 deaths per year (so far) with 836 deaths all casues in 2017. 

[Ramseyboi]

6 minutes ago, Utah 01 said:

Got the first 2 bits but you've lost me on the last.

For example.  You can’t send a positive case back to a nursing home, even if there is nothing wrong with them