Hugh G Rection Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 58 minutes ago, BenFairfax said: I mentioned in ideal world R(t) (R function of time), but then you end up with non-linear system of which implementation becomes lot more demanding. You end up having to use Monte Carlo simulation. However as I mentioned I could smudge this and get same effect with R=1.1 at Day 37. An even more refined model would be if R was a function time, cases, acute disease, fatalities. With models they form part of the public messaging, or at least should and a coherent narrative will need to be presented to the public. Regarding the message to 'crack on', I imagine that was the direction of Public Health England gave local representatives regarding message to be repeat to the population, to get the level of infections needed for Herd Immunity. Not saying that right or wrong, just that makes perfect sense for the programs messaging. The reactions are a range on the ground, but that was case with all the waves, excluding first one. What I can say for sure if we went into strict lockdown 26th until 2nd; in accordance with our agreed mitigation to the events occurring in the IoM. I've never known a single individual (besides myself) to spout such complete bollocks so consistently. oOoOOoHhhhh Ben you're so clever!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 👌 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlanShimmin Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 The Island needs a separate plague ward where these people can be discharged to until they eventually test negative. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh G Rection Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 1 hour ago, BenFairfax said: I mentioned in ideal world R(t) (R function of time), but then you end up with non-linear system of which implementation becomes lot more demanding. You end up having to use Monte Carlo simulation. However as I mentioned I could smudge this and get same effect with R=1.1 at Day 37. An even more refined model would be if R was a function time, cases, acute disease, fatalities. With models they form part of the public messaging, or at least should and a coherent narrative will need to be presented to the public. Regarding the message to 'crack on', I imagine that was the direction of Public Health England gave local representatives regarding message to be repeat to the population, to get the level of infections needed for Herd Immunity. Not saying that right or wrong, just that makes perfect sense for the programs messaging. The reactions are a range on the ground, but that was case with all the waves, excluding first one. What I can say for sure if we went into strict lockdown 26th until 2nd; in accordance with our agreed mitigation to the events occurring in the IoM. You'd fit right in as a senior civil servant! I can see the job title right now "COVID Senior Data Analyst" with the Cabinet Office. Salary of £85,000 p.a Job description : Sit and play with numbers all day and make some idiotic bastard models that really mean fk all but make the government seem clever! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramseyboi Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 17 minutes ago, Ham_N_Eggs said: I have heard that people are actually being told by 111, after a positive LFT, just to isolate for 10 days and not to have a PCR test. The problem with this is that there is no legal obligation on them to isolate. Hiding the issue is not dealing with it. How do you propose they deal with it? What is the point of stressing about the odd person who does a positive lft being out and about? There are thousands walking around who would be positive if they had tested this morning. It’s everywhere and will burn out soon enough. By the time most people get symptoms and then a positive PCR they have already been out and about for days anyway. Containment of any sort is now pointless. This is why the sensible at risk people got vaccinated, so we can live again knowing that we will all probably get it and that it doesn’t matter any more than if we got one of however many other illnesses that are in circulation. Just open the borders properly and let’s crack on. It’s been running wild for weeks now even with schools open and the only real issues caused are due to forcing people who were actually fit enough to work to stay at home. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh G Rection Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 1 hour ago, TheTeapot said: I had a little cannabis consultation at half 5 this morning watching the sunrise. *knock knock* "POLICE OPEN THE DOOR!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barlow Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, Hugh G Rection said: *knock knock* "POLICE OPEN THE DOOR!" Cheech and Chong classic sketch. Thanks for the memory! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrighty Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 18 minutes ago, AlanShimmin said: The Island needs a separate plague ward where these people can be discharged to until they eventually test negative. We sort of did that first time round with the old ward 20, where Nursing Home residents could be looked after until either they were clear or their residence was clear. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 (edited) Ashford said on Mannin line that 30 beds are available for Covid patients plus if necessary they can use Private wing which is not in use at present. https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/space-for-30-covid-19-patients-in-nobles/ Edited August 4, 2021 by Banker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monasqueen Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 Don't all rush at once. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh G Rection Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Banker said: Ashford said on Mannin line that 30 beds are available for Covid patients plus if necessary they can use Private wing which is not in use at present. https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/space-for-30-covid-19-patients-in-nobles/ Space for 30 beds and capacity to deal with 30 patients from a staffing/resource point of view is a completely different ball game. Nobles training hospital can't cope as it is without COVID, never mind the strain that COVID could potentially add. Quite worrying really. Got to be careful with Ashford, he finds a way to word things so as to convince the grannies all is okay, when really it's just incessant drivel. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ham_N_Eggs Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 49 minutes ago, Hugh G Rection said: Space for 30 beds and capacity to deal with 30 patients from a staffing/resource point of view is a completely different ball game. Nobles training hospital can't cope as it is without COVID, never mind the strain that COVID could potentially add. Quite worrying really. Got to be careful with Ashford, he finds a way to word things so as to convince the grannies all is okay, when really it's just incessant drivel. Don't forget the moment they have to start converting operating theatres into ICU units then all services suffer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh G Rection Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 "Another resident dies FROM COVID-19" Really worrying news, especially that we have two deaths in such a short space of time. Praying things do not start to escalate. Nothing but thoughts for the family & friends affected by this tragic news. https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/another-resident-dies-from-covid-19/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh G Rection Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 Just now, Hugh G Rection said: "Another resident dies FROM COVID-19" Really worrying news, especially that we have two deaths in such a short space of time. Praying things do not start to escalate. Nothing but thoughts for the family & friends affected by this tragic news. https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/another-resident-dies-from-covid-19/ Also according to figures does not seem to be a hospital/ICU admission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ham_N_Eggs Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, Hugh G Rection said: Also according to figures does not seem to be a hospital/ICU admission. "Person was being treated in Noble's Hospital" Which means there's a new admission in the hospital. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh G Rection Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Ham_N_Eggs said: "Person was being treated in Noble's Hospital" Which means there's a new admission in the hospital. It appears I have forgotten how to read. 😄 Thanks 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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