IOM Covid removing restrictions

[Gladys]

1 hour ago, monasqueen said:

If you believe the Worldometer figures, our population is 85,527. That seems amazingly precise. 

They missed me out. 

[b4mbi]

1 minute ago, Gladys said:

They missed me out. 

85,528

[AlanShimmin]

1 hour ago, WTF said:

we've just had a census, you'd think they'd know

Wasn't there something about they had to discard some of the data as it was such a fuck up?

[Roger Mexico]

2 hours ago, Nom de plume said:

I did a little bit more of my own research:

‘Education is overseen by the Department of Education, Sport and Culture and regulated by the Isle of Man Education Act 2001. As of September 2017 there were 6,492 pupils in primary schools, and 5,218 pupils in secondary education.’

So that’s another 12,000 near enough without including children below school age & U18’s on college courses & those left school for work, let’s say 4,000 … so 16,000 in total.

80,000 people here

60,000 double dosed (protected)

8,000 refusing to be vaccinated

16,000 U18’s not needing vaccinating

The numbers don’t add up for a start & who the FUCK are we trying to protect now by continuing to impose testing & isolation regimes?

Paging the MF ‘experts’ & EAG

I commented on this a couple of days ago, explaining why the 8000 figure is likely nonsense, though it's interesting that the education figures tend to support this.  It's fairly revealing that people doing back of an envelope calculations without access to the latest data can come up with better estimates than those provided by offices filled with civil servants or at least as understood by the politicians nominally in charge.

[John Wright]

3 hours ago, Nom de plume said:

I did a little bit more of my own research:

‘Education is overseen by the Department of Education, Sport and Culture and regulated by the Isle of Man Education Act 2001. As of September 2017 there were 6,492 pupils in primary schools, and 5,218 pupils in secondary education.’

So that’s another 12,000 near enough without including children below school age & U18’s on college courses & those left school for work, let’s say 4,000 … so 16,000 in total.

80,000 people here

60,000 double dosed (protected)

8,000 refusing to be vaccinated

16,000 U18’s not needing vaccinating

The numbers don’t add up for a start & who the FUCK are we trying to protect now by continuing to impose testing & isolation regimes?

Paging the MF ‘experts’ & EAG

 

1 hour ago, Roger Mexico said:

I commented on this a couple of days ago, explaining why the 8000 figure is likely nonsense, though it's interesting that the education figures tend to support this.  It's fairly revealing that people doing back of an envelope calculations without access to the latest data can come up with better estimates than those provided by offices filled with civil servants or at least as understood by the politicians nominally in charge.

According to Government ( vaccination dashboard ) there are 72,484 aged 18 and over.

Theres clearly an element of double counting, I’m aged 65, I’m clinically extremely vulnerable. It’s not clear if I’m included once or twice, same with health workers, vulnerable, transport workers, and other accelerated groups. 

The number of 1st vaccinations delivered is 64,942. So even on those figures the number of unvaccinated is not 8,000 but 7,500.

Using similar checks to VoR and Roger I get around 850-900 under 18’s for each year group,  so I make that 15,300-16,200. And as some kids aren’t registered at school I think we can round it at 16,000. So IoMG is working on a population of 88,500.

That seems high. Best estimates are 83,000 to 85,000. And population estimates in censuses, which are only snapshots, use different figures for physically present, off island ( but normally present), visitors etc.

Even with Covid there are probably 2,000+ students at university off island but included in the total. Many of them will have been vaccinated whilst off island.

That leaves us an 89.6% 1st vaccination rate. That ignores the fact that the 72,484 base figure is probably an over statement, that 1000-1500 students have possibly been vaccinated in UK.

So, are there 8,000 refusers? clearly not. And of the figure not being vaccinated some won’t be refusers or anti vaxxers, but those for whom vaccination is contraindicated.

[Gladys]

39 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

I commented on this a couple of days ago, explaining why the 8000 figure is likely nonsense, though it's interesting that the education figures tend to support this.  It's fairly revealing that people doing back of an envelope calculations without access to the latest data can come up with better estimates than those provided by offices filled with civil servants or at least as understood by the politicians nominally in charge.

But the population is higher than 80k.

[finlo]

8 minutes ago, Gladys said:

But the population is higher than 80k.

Well that's what they'd like us to think!

[Ramseyboi]

3 hours ago, P.K. said:

Perhaps every care home you can think of...?

We were on the first ferry back under the new '2+2' pathway. We had slipped our return date for it because we really didn't want a third session of self-isolation. The boat was absolutely rammed. No social distancing, very few masks etc etc. A very unhealthy place to be.

We know of two couples who were 2+2 but caught the virus. So we knew the chances were very high that there were folks on that boat who were spreading the virus and who were going to breeze through entry and straight into the general populace. The infection figures would tend to confirm this.

Now we would have been well ok with test on entry and then then out and about on a negative result. As long as the turnaround was 24 hours or similar I suspect most folks would have been. Not doing that looks like a bad mistake.

Read your own post again and it explains exactly why retest on entry would have been pointless in that circumstance.  Clue, the people who caught it on the boat wouldn’t have returned a positive PCR the next day.

I have no issue with the way they opened up and only wish they would now removed the remaining and completely pointless restrictions.

My niece met her partner at uni.  Niece is now back here and the partner can’t come to visit!  Who does that benefit or protect?  Madness

[Cambon]

3 hours ago, Nom de plume said:

Quayle, Ashford & CoMin will need to sanction our own Freedom Day very soon which will coincide with the U.K. full reopening.

And, when do you think that will be? The UKs borders are pretty firmly shut. Red list, over priced hotel isolation on arrival. Yellow list changes rapidly enough to act at as a deterrent to most thinking of going away on holiday. 

I agree, our local border controls should be scrapped, as should testing unless you have symptoms or are going into a healthcare setting such as the hospital. 

[P.K.]

2 hours ago, Danoo said:

At what point do you want life to go back to normal then? I'm assuming never by this post.

I also know of people who are 2+2 and have had the virus. On this basis we just have to move forwards, drop all restrictions and testing and proceed with life. 

 

1 minute ago, Ramseyboi said:

Read your own post again and it explains exactly why retest on entry would have been pointless in that circumstance.  Clue, the people who caught it on the boat wouldn’t have returned a positive PCR the next day.

I have no issue with the way they opened up and only wish they would now removed the remaining and completely pointless restrictions.

My niece met her partner at uni.  Niece is now back here and the partner can’t come to visit!  Who does that benefit or protect?  Madness

The whole planet would love this virus to go away and things get back to normal. Which, of course, includes me.

Firstly correct that a test on arrival would not have found those who were infected on the boat. But testing on arrival is not to find them. It's to find those who infected them. Every little helps....

Secondly what is the new normal going to look like? I am fairly confident that if you want to travel abroad it will involve testing of some description. Whether outward or return. 

[Ramseyboi]

Just now, P.K. said:

 

The whole planet would love this virus to go away and things get back to normal. Which, of course, includes me.

Firstly correct that a test on arrival would not have found those who were infected on the boat. But testing on arrival is not to find them. It's to find those who infected them. Every little helps....

Secondly what is the new normal going to look like? I am fairly confident that if you want to travel abroad it will involve testing of some description. Whether outward or return. 

Couldn’t disagree more with “every little helps”

We are way beyond that.  There is no reason why with the levels of protection we have in society now the the new normal can’t be life as it was in 2019 with some restrictions on international travel in the short term.  Longer term just back to normal.

As far as the IoM and UK are concerned we are definitely at the point where if you stop testing and stop reporting it people would very quickly get back to normal without any concerns at all.

Most of us already have, here and in UK.

[AlanShimmin]

17 minutes ago, Ramseyboi said:

There is no reason why with the levels of protection we have in society now the the new normal can’t be life as it was in 2019

Just without HQ at the helm please. 

[Nom de plume]

23 minutes ago, Cambon said:

And, when do you think that will be? The UKs borders are pretty firmly shut. Red list, over priced hotel isolation on arrival. Yellow list changes rapidly enough to act at as a deterrent to most thinking of going away on holiday. 

I agree, our local border controls should be scrapped, as should testing unless you have symptoms or are going into a healthcare setting such as the hospital. 

I’m not calling for unrestricted travel from beyond the U.K. borders, though our infection rates are higher than anywhere so unsure on the logic.

We need to drop the restrictions on CTA.

I’m still awaiting a reply from the experts on who we are now protecting given the fag packet math has exposed everyone needing jabbing (or prepared to have it) has had it.

There isn’t a reason. That’s why.

 

Edited August 8, 2021 by Nom de plume

[Ramseyboi]

17 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

I’m not calling for unrestricted travel from beyond the U.K. borders, though our infection rates are higher than anywhere so unsure on the logic.

We need to drop the restrictions on CTA.

I’m still awaiting a reply from the experts on who we are now protecting given the fag packet math has exposed everyone needing jabbing (or prepared to have it) has had it.

There isn’t a reason. That’s why.

 

It’s political now.  There is no reason not to ditch all travel restrictions and testing, absolutely none other than it would send the worriers into overdrive.

Those people who just immediately equate a removal of restrictions to death without actually thinking about it rationally.

You won’t get an answer as to who these restrictions are now protecting because there isn’t one.  Like I said before, can anyone give a rational reason why my nieces 22 year boyfriend isn’t even allowed to set foot on the island?  I doubt it.

[wrighty]

1 hour ago, John Wright said:

 

According to Government ( vaccination dashboard ) there are 72,484 aged 18 and over.

Theres clearly an element of double counting, I’m aged 65, I’m clinically extremely vulnerable. It’s not clear if I’m included once or twice, same with health workers, vulnerable, transport workers, and other accelerated groups. 

The number of 1st vaccinations delivered is 64,942. So even on those figures the number of unvaccinated is not 8,000 but 7,500.

Using similar checks to VoR and Roger I get around 850-900 under 18’s for each year group,  so I make that 15,300-16,200. And as some kids aren’t registered at school I think we can round it at 16,000. So IoMG is working on a population of 88,500.

That seems high. Best estimates are 83,000 to 85,000. And population estimates in censuses, which are only snapshots, use different figures for physically present, off island ( but normally present), visitors etc.

Even with Covid there are probably 2,000+ students at university off island but included in the total. Many of them will have been vaccinated whilst off island.

That leaves us an 89.6% 1st vaccination rate. That ignores the fact that the 72,484 base figure is probably an over statement, that 1000-1500 students have possibly been vaccinated in UK.

So, are there 8,000 refusers? clearly not. And of the figure not being vaccinated some won’t be refusers or anti vaxxers, but those for whom vaccination is contraindicated.

I’ve raised the double counting issue. I think the number of unvaxxed 70-74 year olds is too high - this group includes vulnerable 16-64 year olds I think, and when one of them gets vaxxed I wonder if they count against their age group and not necessarily their vax priority category. 
 

Looking at the vax figures the other week I came to the conclusion that almost all the over 50s were double jabbed. By that I mean over 90%. The rest either don’t exist, are off island, were vaxxed off island, or in a few cases didn’t have it. There’s not many.