IOM Covid removing restrictions

[2112]

I like the new MF ranking system. I apparently have 233 points till my next rant!

[Roger Mexico]

56 minutes ago, Annoymouse said:

Did I just read that right from P.K? The unvaccinated could be giving the virus an opportunity to mutate? That’s certainly an interesting perspective, if anyone is going to allow an opportunity for a new vaccine resistant variant ( the one mutation we actually need to worry about) it is actually the vaccinated.

It's the mixture of vaccinated and unvaccinated that's the problem, together with the lack of restrictions to suppress the spread of the virus.    This means there are a lot of vaccinated people in continual contact with the virus which provides the optimal conditions for mutations which might lessen the effectiveness to occur.  This BBC piece from last month explains:

[...] the field of viral phylodynamics, which [combines knowledge about] how the virus is spreading [and] our immunity and evolutionary biology, suggests the sweet spot is when there is partial immunity, and still enough virus spreading.

Of course that doesn't mean that dangerous mutations will occur.  And to some degree we have been paradoxically protected by the Delta variant being so infectious that it has suppressed other variants, such as Beta, which might have made the virus less effective.

[P.K.]

1 hour ago, TheTeapot said:

I just don't understand why there's this massive lull of adequate leadership and communication talking about the future. I was joking a bit with PK being terrified, but he's clearly overly concerned, and there are a great many older people who definitely are. It's easy to take the piss, I do it too, but really we need to help these people. They've been sucked into a negative spiral that they can't get out of, partly cos of the shit coming out of isage, Deepti & co, partly because governments have been so shit, partly from something else that might be in their own heads.

Wake up to the reality, there is nothing special or unique about SARS-Cov-2, get jabbed and get on. 

It wasn't called "Novel" for nothing.

I'm not "overly concerned" for myself at all. Others however....

I don't think older people have been "sucked into a negative spiral" but everybody is learning and looking at the numbers. Which tell the older folks that something is not good about having their advanced years. That's simply reality.

With Delta even with two jabs you can get the virus. So currently herd immunity is not an option. All the planning from the likes of Westminster were around opening up at such a time as herd immunity was about reached. Well, so they said anyway. What their plan is now I have no idea. Probably they don't either but then every day is a school day.

Obviously best case is covid doesn't become endemic and a booster jab later in the year gives better protection against the Delta variant with it's unique differences.

I guess we'll find out.

[TheTeapot]

1 minute ago, P.K. said:

It wasn't called "Novel" for nothing.

I'm not "overly concerned" for myself at all. Others however....

I don't think older people have been "sucked into a negative spiral" but everybody is learning and looking at the numbers. Which tell the older folks that something is not good about having their advanced years. That's simply reality.

With Delta even with two jabs you can get the virus. So currently herd immunity is not an option. All the planning from the likes of Westminster were around opening up at such a time as herd immunity was about reached. Well, so they said anyway. What their plan is now I have no idea. Probably they don't either but then every day is a school day.

Obviously best case is covid doesn't become endemic and a booster jab later in the year gives better protection against the Delta variant with it's unique differences.

I guess we'll find out.

What? Is this a typo or do you actually believe that?

[Gladys]

8 minutes ago, P.K. said:

It wasn't called "Novel" for nothing.

I'm not "overly concerned" for myself at all. Others however....

I don't think older people have been "sucked into a negative spiral" but everybody is learning and looking at the numbers. Which tell the older folks that something is not good about having their advanced years. That's simply reality.

With Delta even with two jabs you can get the virus. So currently herd immunity is not an option. All the planning from the likes of Westminster were around opening up at such a time as herd immunity was about reached. Well, so they said anyway. What their plan is now I have no idea. Probably they don't either but then every day is a school day.

Obviously best case is covid doesn't become endemic and a booster jab later in the year gives better protection against the Delta variant with it's unique differences.

I guess we'll find out.

Our best hope is that it does become an endemic low level infection,  it isn’t going anywhere. 

[TheTeapot]

Re-post of this article

https://cspicenter.org/blog/waronscience/why-covid-19-is-here-to-stay-and-why-you-shouldnt-worry-about-it/

 

[TheTeapot]

Here is another article saying much the same thing, although less technical and more american

With the flu, we as a society generally agree on the risk we were willing to tolerate. With COVID-19, we do not yet agree.

[P.K.]

4 hours ago, TheTeapot said:

What? Is this a typo or do you actually believe that?

Do I believe that the best case is that covid doesn't become endemic?

Of course. Who doesn't?

[TheTeapot]

2 minutes ago, P.K. said:

Do I believe that the best case is that covid doesn't become endemic?

Of course. Who doesn't?

Err, everyone rational.

Becoming endemic is absolutely the best outcome.

[quilp]

It already is. 

[TheTeapot]

Just now, quilp said:

It already is. 

Well, yes, but there is still an awful lot of completely unprotected people out there, so we're not at the probable endpoint of it being a widely circulating minor nuisance.

 

[P.K.]

1 minute ago, TheTeapot said:

Err, everyone rational.

Becoming endemic is absolutely the best outcome.

I beg to differ.

Surely the best outcome is herd immunity by vaccination with the odd hotspot flaring up from time to time? Like NZ.

Unfortunately the Delta variant with it's unique combination of mutations (I believe it was you who claimed there was nothing unique about this virus....?) could make herd immunity just a bit tricky.

But just because it's difficult that doesn't mean it's impossible. Unfortunately that will require a planet-wide approach which means politics, or rather politicians, will let self-interest fuck it up.

QED.

[TheTeapot]

1 minute ago, P.K. said:

I beg to differ.

Surely the best outcome is herd immunity by vaccination with the odd hotspot flaring up from time to time? Like NZ.

Unfortunately the Delta variant with it's unique combination of mutations (I believe it was you who claimed there was nothing unique about this virus....?) could make herd immunity just a bit tricky.

But just because it's difficult that doesn't mean it's impossible. Unfortunately that will require a planet-wide approach which means politics, or rather politicians, will let self-interest fuck it up.

QED.

Read either of the links I've put up, the first one is better but more technical. Please.

It is difficult to respond to you saying 'herd immunity' because a lot of people don't use it in the correct way. The chances of herd immunity in the way we have for measles is zero. This is why its hugely important to give so many people immunity through vaccine, so that Covid as a disease mostly goes away, and people mostly just get colds. Like with the other human coronaviruses that are entirely normal to us now, put likely caused pandemics in the past (the key bit here as to why there is nothing special about it).

You can't eradicate it, you can't control it, you can't mask it, all you can do is get vaccinated and buy some tissues for when you get infected, which will be soon.

 

 

[NoTailT]

@TheTeapot excuse me fine sir.

'You can't mask it.'

Dicks in charge have been telling us to wear a mask to protect against it for ages!!

[TheTeapot]

1 minute ago, NoTailT said:

@TheTeapot excuse me fine sir.

'You can't mask it.'

Dicks in charge have been telling us to wear a mask to protect against it for ages!!

Been a massive success too hasn't it? 

I'm sure there are some circumstances where wearing a properly fitted good quality mask is useful, but not all the time and everywhere like some people seem to think. Especially rubbish fabric ones or sadly a snood. They just don't work.