IOM Covid removing restrictions

[momo65]

27 minutes ago, wrighty said:

Aren't we already getting into the 4th wave? And unlike previous pandemics we're (virtually) all vaccinated now.

Thats why I qualified it saying without vaccine effects. The vaccine effect will impact upon it by their being fewer susceptibles clearly. However the fact that this first generation vac does not eliminate but merely reduces transmission & that the vacs were predominantly given in a short time period means they too will wane around the same time (although I suspect the normal distribution will be flatten & elongated as the vaccine administration was) & that too will contribute. Furthermore for a lot of the other pandemics, natural immunity seemed longer. I will be surprised if we don't see at least another couple of disruptive waves at least 

[Danoo]

1 hour ago, momo65 said:

Let's leave silly similes & attempted put downs to the school yard. 

We all want the same thing. To get to a steady state where Covid is a background illness at likely persistent low levels & causing no disruption. Big waves of any disease be it flu, d&v, TB, plague or Covid are disruptive. Lots of people sick at the same time off work, off school etc causes disruption & of course there's disruption to routine health services as part of that. 

So what's the quickest & easiest way for us to achieve that with a disease which has a fairly limited post infection immunity? The answer is to prevent big spikes.

Waves occur when there's a lot of susceptible people. Where natural immunity wanes fairly quickly & predictably that means all those infected in this wave will be susceptible again about same time. So this wave creates the next. Over time, because not everyone's immunity expires on the same day the waves get progressively smaller, but that may take several cycles of disruption to achieve, typically 4 or 5 without vaccine effects. 

However if you put minor mitigations in place people get infected at a slower rate & their immunity will not all expire at the same time. That means no disruptive waves and you achieve the steady state much more quickly. 

So you either choose the safest, quickest route to "normality" or you go with the more disruptive, longer, more expensive way. 

Lots of suppositions in there. As well as a presumption that your way is the safest and quickest and any other way is more disruptive and longer. In truth you don't know, I don't know and also stating that we have limited post infection immunity is incorrect. We're already well into your 'cycles of disruption' and lots of people I know who have had it have been fine since. 

I sense you have a vested interest in 'your way' for some professional reason which may be influencing your views. A combination of vaccine-derived and natural immunity should be sufficient to see us through from here on in. The glass doesn't need to be half empty.

[momo65]

30 minutes ago, Danoo said:

Lots of suppositions in there. As well as a presumption that your way is the safest and quickest and any other way is more disruptive and longer. In truth you don't know, I don't know and also stating that we have limited post infection immunity is incorrect. We're already well into your 'cycles of disruption' and lots of people I know who have had it have been fine since. 

I sense you have a vested interest in 'your way' for some professional reason which may be influencing your views. A combination of vaccine-derived and natural immunity should be sufficient to see us through from here on in. The glass doesn't need to be half empty.

You sense entirely incorrectly. The time limited post infection is documented. Not only that there are lots of people who have had more than one episode, illustrating that it is limited. 

No one can be certain of any future event. However we can often be reasonably clear about events eg whether it will rain this week. To dismiss any scenario on the grounds that you can't be certain it's going to happen is not perhaps the best way to decide any policy. 

[Happier diner]

16 hours ago, Ramseyboi said:

High level of natural immunity because they got clobbered early doors.

We locked ourselves away, but will get there eventually

But they didnt get clobbered as hard as the UK and they didn't get people vaccinated as quickly initially. The reason is more likely that they have now overtaken the UK and a great population of children are vaccinated. Much like Spain

[Happier diner]

 

8 hours ago, Danoo said:

Are we not hearing them bang on about more 'COVID mitigations' constantly in the news at the moment? Just get on with teaching. There doesn't need to be any more measures put in place. COVID isn't going away. We don't need to mask children, we don't need to disrupt their education, we don't need to hear their union reps in the media with more demands. If teaching is too hazardous and isn't for them anymore go and work at Shoprite. I'd much rather my kids were taught by adults with backbones anyway.

That's just silly. Where is this 'banging on'. Is it not the right of any profession to be concerned about their health. There are plenty of teachers 50+ and plenty with health conditions. They are not banging on, just excursing their right to be heard.

 

7 hours ago, Danoo said:

So you're suggesting we play hide and seek forever then?

Are the teachers suggesting this. I have not noticed. 

7 hours ago, Danoo said:

Because kids aren't at risk, the risk/benefit for vaccinating kids is non existent. Any society worth it's salt doesn't get kids to shield adults. The loss of even one child to any kind of side effect is not worth saving 10,000 adults. That's not how civilised societies work.  

Kids are at less risk, not no risk. So the benefits of vaccination kids has not been seen in Spain, Germany, France and Italy. Is that benefit non existent or are you just ignoring it.

[Danoo]

2 hours ago, Happier diner said:

 

That's just silly. Where is this 'banging on'. Is it not the right of any profession to be concerned about their health. There are plenty of teachers 50+ and plenty with health conditions. They are not banging on, just excursing their right to be heard.

 

Are the teachers suggesting this. I have not noticed. 

Kids are at less risk, not no risk. So the benefits of vaccination kids has not been seen in Spain, Germany, France and Italy. Is that benefit non existent or are you just ignoring it.

How do you measure the benefit when the risk was zero to start with?

[Happier diner]

52 minutes ago, Danoo said:

How do you measure the benefit when the risk was zero to start with?

Seems you struggle to understand risk. Where did you see zero. It's never been zero risk. Some kids get ill. Much less than say over 70s but it's never been zero. 

They can get ill. They can pass it on to those that they are close to. They are close to teachers. Not rocket science.

[Whiskey]

9 hours ago, Danoo said:

Teaching union requests 'urgent meeting' on Covid mitigations - Manx Radio

Head teachers - a very different breed. 

[WTF]

5 hours ago, wrighty said:

Aren't we already getting into the 4th wave? And unlike previous pandemics we're (virtually) all vaccinated now.

we've had more waves than a surfing contest, and just like previous demics many folk have run out of fucks to give and just want to move on.

[Happier diner]

15 minutes ago, WTF said:

we've had more waves than a surfing contest, and just like previous demics many folk have run out of fucks to give and just want to move on.

I'm afraid you are going to be disappointed. Yes things will be better, much much better hopefully and no more needless restrictions... but only a fool would convince themselves it had gone away.

[Danoo]

1 hour ago, Happier diner said:

Seems you struggle to understand risk. Where did you see zero. It's never been zero risk. Some kids get ill. Much less than say over 70s but it's never been zero. 

They can get ill. They can pass it on to those that they are close to. They are close to teachers. Not rocket science.

This isn't a new phenomenon. Happens every year. Some kids get ill. They pass it on to those they are close to. They are close to teachers. Not rocket science. 

Life goes on. Statistically COVID is similar to influenza in terms of severity. We don't disrupt schools every year because of it. We need to get some perspective back.

[thommo2010]

There's still people on social media calling for restrictions.

 

It amazes me how many people can't seem to live their life and need government intervention to tell them what to do. 

[Ham_N_Eggs]

34 minutes ago, Danoo said:

This isn't a new phenomenon. Happens every year. Some kids get ill. They pass it on to those they are close to. They are close to teachers. Not rocket science. 

Life goes on. Statistically COVID is similar to influenza in terms of severity. We don't disrupt schools every year because of it. We need to get some perspective back.

It's not but let say for the sake of arguement it is...the only reason there is parity is because of restrictions. Let see what the stats are after a year of no restrictions and vaccinations.

Schools are closed for severe vomiting bug outbreaks. But hey keep on rewriting history in your head.

[Ramseyboi]

1 hour ago, Ham_N_Eggs said:

It's not but let say for the sake of arguement it is...the only reason there is parity is because of restrictions. Let see what the stats are after a year of no restrictions and vaccinations.

Schools are closed for severe vomiting bug outbreaks. But hey keep on rewriting history in your head.

That actually makes kids sick though, and is way more contagious than COVID.  My young fella had that years ago and it wiped him and me right out.  We didn’t even notice ‘rona.

The stomach bug went right through our house and my elderly parents.  COVID barely infected anyone in the house. In fact different household members have had it at 3 separate times and never knowingly passed it on to anyone else.

I would much rather have COVID in the house than a severe vomiting bug, even pre vaccine.

Edited October 18, 2021 by Ramseyboi

[Ham_N_Eggs]

16 minutes ago, Ramseyboi said:

That actually makes kids sick though, and is way more contagious than COVID.  My young fella had that years ago and it wiped him and me right out.  We didn’t even notice ‘rona.

The stomach bug went right through our house and my elderly parents.  COVID barely infected anyone in the house. In fact different household members have had it at 3 separate times and never knowingly passed it on to anyone else.

I would much rather have COVID in the house than a severe vomiting bug, even pre vaccine.

COVID makes the teachers sick. No teachers = no school. That is what's happening in our junior schools at the moment.