IOM Covid removing restrictions

[Ringy Rose]

8 hours ago, alpha-acid said:

What a load of rubbish mask wearing cuts down infections enormously, you get your science on Facebook

There's no evidence it does. The one big actual experiment- rather than a literature study- in Denmark last year showed there is no evidence. Maybe this will change, maybe it won't.

If people want to wear them then they should do so.

The idea that kids not wearing face masks all day is why numbers are rising is laughable. And the idea that forcing kids to wear masks all day is going to make the tiniest bit of difference is equally laughable.

[thommo2010]

Just now, Ringy Rose said:

There's no evidence it does. The one big actual experiment- rather than a literature study- in Denmark last year showed there is no evidence. Maybe this will change, maybe it won't.

If people want to wear them then they should do so.

The idea that kids not wearing face masks all day is why numbers are rising is laughable. And the idea that forcing kids to wear masks all day is going to make the tiniest bit of difference is equally laughable.

Scotland still have mandatory mask wearing and they are recording record cases

[Ham_N_Eggs]

Just now, thommo2010 said:

Scotland still have mandatory mask wearing and they are recording record cases

But at a lower rate than England

[Ham_N_Eggs]

8 hours ago, TheTeapot said:

The current situation on the Isle of Man is a direct consequence of our long suppression strategy. It is clear that all those previous efforts have led to a situation where actually very few people have had contact with the virus, and that until many more have case rates will remain high. Claims of previous 'widespread transmission' now appear false. We're in it now, and efforts to further suppress are broadly pointless. The rate at which it appears school kids have been infected this latest wave should begin to slow, because it will run out of people to infect. This is also likely to happen in the UK very soon. 

It's a big transition wave and all the kids getting infected will ultimately have a net benefit.

Some people accurately predicted that what is happening was going to happen. Sadly they also predicted a period of heightened excess death rates, old people die all the time, some of them this winter will get covid on their death certificate instead of pneumonia, or old age, or whatever. The vaccines are super effective though, so those rates shouldn't be too high. It's that word 'too' that causes people issues.

Really, the government and people just need to hold their nerve.

Another observation is about people and 'class'. If you were to do some demographics, look for stereotypes etc you would find that generally the anti/hoaxers are thick, but those who most call for restrictions are not. The pandemic has exposed all kinds of problems in society and has of course disproportionately affected the poor. Those most vocal, demanding the government ACT are generally fairly well off, older, educated, professional, home owners with gardens, the people who can afford to live through a pandemic. They will tell you it is selfish not to wear a mask, but really they are the most selfish of all. The safest too. Noone will ever talk about sick pay, it is amazing that this far in it hasn't been revolutionised. All those people on min wage/zero hours who do all the shelf stacking or delivering allowing you to live your safe life don't get sick pay. The government hasn't done anything about it because the pressure from the middle classes isn't there. Because they don't care.

None of them can remember what it is to be a child either.

Here's a stat for you all - In the UK over the last month not a single vaccinated person under 50 died of covid, and only 1 under 60. If you're getting on a bit you should definitely take up the offer of a booster when it comes. 

The issue is whether our tiny hospital can cope. Nurses, doctors and other staff are already working 16-18 shifts due lack of staff (non-covid related). It will lead to burnout and staff turning their back on the manx NHS. Chuck COVID in there on top of an already stretched service and it will start to collapse. This is the unavoidable reality of living in small community where human resources are limited.

[thommo2010]

23 minutes ago, offshoremanxman said:

This is what annoys people though. We’re shutting down other peoples lives and putting jobs at risk as agencies that we fund with our taxes can’t actually cope with service delivery which is nonsensical really. It’s the same in the UK. When have we ever before been asked to fit our lives entirely around the various inefficiencies and failures of government? It’s not really living with covid. It’s a political solution which dovetails with poor public sector service provision.

The nhs has struggled for years and been neglected, instead of funding it properly it seems its a better option to tell people don't go to work/school. It's crazy that it's just accepted

[Ham_N_Eggs]

20 minutes ago, offshoremanxman said:

This is what annoys people though. We’re shutting down other peoples lives and putting jobs at risk as agencies that we fund with our taxes can’t actually cope with service delivery which is nonsensical really. It’s the same in the UK. When have we ever before been asked to fit our lives entirely around the various inefficiencies and failures of government? It’s not really living with covid. It’s a political solution which dovetails with poor public sector service provision.

It's pretty obvious why as well. Manx Care, which is copied from the English model, is a nicely packaged product to sell. Once they defund it far enough to create outrage. Maybe they'll start by getting a private operator in to run it.

[TheTeapot]

Imagine concentrating your efforts on an expensive re-brand in the middle of a pandemic....

[HeliX]

40 minutes ago, offshoremanxman said:

I agree, the UK is now over Two Trillion pounds in debt because shutting down the economy and paying people to not work or to stay at home was easier than actually funding a proper pandemic response. Now they’re angling for more restrictions so that schools which have coped fairly appallingly up until now can still just get by without too much disruption and inconvenience to government staff and budgets. It’s mad. I’m not sure why more people aren’t angry about how their well-being and wealth has been traded to make things easy for the people spending their tax money.

'twas ever thus, just easier to see it now. 

[Andy Onchan]

2 hours ago, thommo2010 said:

Scotland still have mandatory mask wearing and they are recording record cases

Are you sure it's mandatory? I can't find anything on NHSInform or Public Health Scotland.... it's all guidance only.

Lots up here wearing masks in food stores but go in a pub and no one is wearing mask. I work in an office block and I'd say that abut 60% of those moving around in the public areas are not masked up.

[HeliX]

3 hours ago, Ringy Rose said:

There's no evidence it does. The one big actual experiment- rather than a literature study- in Denmark last year showed there is no evidence. Maybe this will change, maybe it won't.

If people want to wear them then they should do so.

The idea that kids not wearing face masks all day is why numbers are rising is laughable. And the idea that forcing kids to wear masks all day is going to make the tiniest bit of difference is equally laughable.

I already linked you the evidence but you ignored it so you could continue your daftness.

[thommo2010]

21 minutes ago, Andy Onchan said:

Are you sure it's mandatory? I can't find anything on NHSInform or Public Health Scotland.... it's all guidance only.

Lots up here wearing masks in food stores but go in a pub and no one is wearing mask. I work in an office block and I'd say that abut 60% of those moving around in the public areas are not masked up.

Yeah pretty sure it is but I stand to be corrected how it's policed is another matter, at outdoor events for over 10k you need to show a vaccine passport for indoor events for over 500 I think it is you need a vaccine passport. So if you go to a football match and there's 9,999 people no passport but if there's 10,001 need a passport. 

[Ringy Rose]

2 minutes ago, HeliX said:

I already linked you the evidence but you ignored it so you could continue your daftness.

You posted a link to a literature review. Like so many others, it draws the conclusion that some countries have lower infection rates and some of these countries also mandate masks, therefore masks are why these countries have lower infection rates. Correlation is not causation.

The only actual controlled experiment on this- in Denmark in late 2020- showed that the wearing of masks makes no discernible difference to the infection rates of wearers. It was 2% infection rate for non-wearers and 1.9% for mask wearers who wore them properly; it was 2% for those who wore them incorrectly. 

I don't care if people want to wear masks, it is a personal choice.

My point is that people who are blaming infection rates on kids not wearing them are wrong. And that mandating their use in schools will make precisely zero difference to the situation. 

[TheTeapot]

13 minutes ago, HeliX said:

I already linked you the evidence but you ignored it so you could continue your daftness.

UK HSA doesn't make the strongest case for them in this paper.

 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1025113/OFFSEN_Respiratory_Evidence_Panel_Evidence_Overview_UKHSA_branding__1___4_.pdf

 

[Ringy Rose]

2 hours ago, Ham_N_Eggs said:

It's pretty obvious why as well. Manx Care, which is copied from the English model, is a nicely packaged product to sell. Once they defund it far enough to create outrage. Maybe they'll start by getting a private operator in to run it.

Manx Care already are getting private operators in. They just bunged £2m at a private operator of virtual medical consultations to help with the backlog. Imagine if they'd spent it on staff instead.

[AcousticallyChallenged]

3 hours ago, Ringy Rose said:

There's no evidence it does. The one big actual experiment- rather than a literature study- in Denmark last year showed there is no evidence. Maybe this will change, maybe it won't.

If people want to wear them then they should do so.

The idea that kids not wearing face masks all day is why numbers are rising is laughable. And the idea that forcing kids to wear masks all day is going to make the tiniest bit of difference is equally laughable.

Yes there is.

https://www.poverty-action.org/publication/impact-community-masking-covid-19-cluster-randomized-trial-bangladesh

Quote

A randomized-trial of community-level mask promotion in rural Bangladesh during COVID-19 shows that the intervention tripled mask usage and reduced symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections, demonstrating that promoting community mask-wearing can improve public health.

From the author in an article about the study: https://theconversation.com/evidence-shows-that-yes-masks-prevent-covid-19-and-surgical-masks-are-the-way-to-go-167963

Quote

We did have a large enough sample size to determine that in villages where we distributed surgical masks, COVID-19 fell by 12%. In those villages COVID-19 fell by 35% for people 60 years and older and 23% for people 50-60 years old. When looking at COVID-19-like symptoms we found that both surgical and cloth masks resulted in a 12% reduction.

The Denmark study is NOT your panacea against mask wearing, the only conclusion it drew was inconclusive. It paid no attention to how mask wearing impacts transmission, and suggests likely benefit to the wearer.

Quote

The trial evaluated whether giving free surgical masks to volunteers and recommending their use safeguarded wearers from infection with the coronavirus, in addition to other public health recommendations. The study didn’t identify a statistically significant protective effect for wearers, but the trial was only designed to detect a large effect of 50% or more. And the study didn’t weigh in on the ability of masks to prevent spread of the virus from wearers to others, or what’s known as source control, which is thought to be the primary way that masks work.

From the BMJ on the topic: https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4586

Quote

Except that if you read the published paper you find almost the exact opposite.345 The trial is inconclusive rather than negative, and it points to a likely benefit of mask wearing to the wearer—it did not examine the wider potential benefit of reduced spread of infection to others—and this even in a population where mask wearing isn’t mandatory and prevalence of infection is low. This finding is in keeping with summaries of evidence from Cochran

You can also look back at the relative impact of different measures with clever stats. https://www.ajtmh.org/view/journals/tpmd/103/6/article-p2400.xml

Quote

In countries with cultural norms or government policies supporting public mask-wearing, per-capita coronavirus mortality increased on average by just 16.2% each week, as compared with 61.9% each week in remaining countries. Societal norms and government policies supporting the wearing of masks by the public, as well as international travel controls, are independently associated with lower per-capita mortality from COVID-19.

Edited October 22, 2021 by AcousticallyChallenged
Missed a link off.