IOM Covid removing restrictions

[TheTeapot]

Here's a little thread from someone rational. The doomers don't like this guy either

 

[Cambon]

1 hour ago, TheTeapot said:

I'm getting a bit dispirited by it all really, despite all the good news.

But then you argued with me when I said it is burning itself out? It is! It had been from day one. You said it is all down to vaccination (but not in such a positive way). Well, it kind of is. 

We are all going to get this virus, whether we like it or not. Please just make sure you are vaccinated first! 

[TheTeapot]

People may recall that some time back I shared an article by Andrew Lilico arguing the epidemic was over. He's probably a bit of a prick in real life but he's been remarkably accurate in his predictions. Anyway, he's written another one, crowing a bit about his genius but also calling out some straight up nonsense people have recently been plugging. Its from the Telegraph so I've pasted it for you ( remember, to read telegraph articles should you wish to, simply turn off javascript) https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/29/lockdown-fanatics-should-ashamed/

Quote

Lockdown fanatics should be ashamed of themselves

Those who called for Plan B just days ago have already seen their predictions proven wrong – yet again

At the start of this week, certain people, such as the Labour Party and the “Independent Sage” group of scientists, were calling for coronavirus restrictions to be brought back. They warned that, without them, the NHS would collapse this autumn and winter. They were wrong. As cases have since trended downwards, some of them have gone strangely silent.

These prognosticators of doom have been wrong time after time after time. And not just a little bit wrong – epically wrong, all while morally condemning their more accurate opponents. As cases rose in early July, in the run-up to England’s full reopening on July 19, restrictions advocates said that it was inevitable we would reach 100,000 cases per day. Keir Starmer released a video statement in which he declared that “Boris Johnson’s recklessness means we’re going to have an NHS summer crisis. The Johnson Variant is already out of control.” A set of academics wrote a letter to The Lancet condemning the reopening as a “dangerous and unethical experiment”.

What happened next was that cases crashed, immediately after July 19, in precisely the week my model said that would happen. In late August, after a small rise as behaviour adjusted to the absence of restrictions, cases started falling again. But restrictions advocates were unfazed by their failures of a few weeks before. Next they declared that if restrictions were not reimposed in the autumn, there would be 300,000 new cases per day, with 100,000 per day being inevitable and 200,000 likely.

Others of us, using the models that had successfully predicted the July peak and cases falling from the second half of August, said that wouldn’t happen. Instead, there would be a spike in cases among children when schools returned, but spillover into other age-groups would be limited, and neither seasonal factors, behaviour changing to be more like that pre-pandemic nor any more infectious variant could change that. Hospitalisations would peak at between 1,000 and 1,500 per day – well below even the most optimistic of the early September Sage scenarios.

What happened was that there was a spike in cases among children, cases in non-children barely changed, hospitalisations fell a bit before rising back towards 1,000 per day.

Yet despite being hideously wrong both in the summer and as regards September/October, restrictions advocates still expect us to believe their new prognostications of doom. We should not.

Just as their agitation for new restrictions reached its latest peak, cases in England started falling again, with week-on-week falls of over 20 per cent recorded in the past few days. Everyone makes mistakes when trying to predict real-world events, but scientists learn from their mistakes instead of doubling down on the same wrong predictions.

What’s going to happen (as the latest official Sage models now predict) is that cases and hospitalistions will be lower in winter than they are now. The government estimates are that nearly 80 per cent of children have now had Covid and about 6-7 per cent are newly infected per week. That means that the virus has all but run out of children to infect and cases among children will crash – according to the latest data they are falling at a rate of about 40 per cent per week. Children constituted half of recent cases. So chldren’s cases crashing means total cases will fall rapidly. Hospitalisations will fall, too, as boosters eliminate most of the residual serious disease risk for the elderly.

Maybe other things might threaten our health soon. A new flu epidemic is a possibility. Covid will become endemic, after a bumpy transition over the next year or so. Tens of thousands of people will catch it every day, for ever. All of us will get it many times. But the epidemic is over and it’s time for those whose predictions have been so wrong to lick their intellectual wounds and learn some badly needed lessons in humility.

 

[quilp]

1 hour ago, Cambon said:

But then you argued with me when I said it is burning itself out? It is! It had been from day one.

From day one the virus has been mutating. The early variants, though still around, have been overtaken by dominant mutations. We were all vaxxed based on research on the early variants. Vaccine efficacy long-term is still to be properly evaluated and how much effect any waning of their collective potential will have against any new-variant outbreaks that will arise, well, we shall see. In many countries around the world, this virus and its mutations still burn fiercely...

It will be as TheTeapot explains. The coming cold months will be the testing-ground for the vaccines and any naturally-acquired immunity. Next spring will tell us a lot, hopefully. By that time, current research, ploughing-ahead relentlessly as it is, might even have had its 'eureka' moment and produced the magic pill/vaccine to end all our woes.

[Banker]

Miss Glover is getting annoyed with those saying we need to live with COVID, from Twitter!

You have no idea how much self control I use to NOT respond to the "live with it" crowd on Facebook. 

I want the people who say we should "live with it" to do so to the families of the people who have died due to COVID and then watch them realise how insulting their words are.

[TheTeapot]

Living with it doesn't mean ignoring it. I think people get a bit mixed up. Maybe its brain fog.

[Danoo]

46 minutes ago, Banker said:

Miss Glover is getting annoyed with those saying we need to live with COVID, from Twitter!

You have no idea how much self control I use to NOT respond to the "live with it" crowd on Facebook. 

I want the people who say we should "live with it" to do so to the families of the people who have died due to COVID and then watch them realise how insulting their words are.

Of course she is. No-one knew who she was 18 months ago, she was just doing gene testing on cats but now she's a local superstar so she doesn't want to lose that status. The reality is we don't need her input anymore. She can go back to being a nobody again. 

In response to your final point. What about the people whose relatives died because their treatments were pulled because of the COVID over-reaction? Do they not warrant a mention or is it still the COVID-only show?

ETA: I see she blocks people who don't agree with her views on Twitter. Doesn't respond to debate. Calls them trolls. Always a sure sign someone is comfortable that their own opinion is correct and open to dialogue....

Edited October 31, 2021 by Danoo

[Anyone]

And not the only scientist elevated to god status. Just look at how many so called gurus in the UK and worldwide. Some liking the ‘power’ handed to them a bit too much because they are in the end not accountable and therefore more dangerous than covid.

[AcousticallyChallenged]

32 minutes ago, Danoo said:

Of course she is. No-one knew who she was 18 months ago, she was just doing gene testing on cats but now she's a local superstar so she doesn't want to lose that status. The reality is we don't need her input anymore. She can go back to being a nobody again. 

In response to your final point. What about the people whose relatives died because their treatments were pulled because of the COVID over-reaction? Do they not warrant a mention or is it still the COVID-only show?

ETA: I see she blocks people who don't agree with her views on Twitter. Doesn't respond to debate. Calls them trolls. Always a sure sign someone is comfortable that their own opinion is correct and open to dialogue....

Manx Twitter is never going to elevate your scientific standing. If it was local celebrity attention she craved, she'd have run for MHK.

Equally, scientifically speaking, she seems to be putting out decent and well-cited peer-reviewed research in her field as well as running a successful business. I wouldn't call that doing terribly for oneself.

To address your final point, have you ever tried arguing with anyone on Twitter? It's a fruitless endeavor. Anti-vaxxers often wouldn't understand concepts like evidence if it hit them around the head. See all the conspiracy posted in the anti-vaxxer thread as a good example of the level often being dealt with.

[thommo2010]

3 hours ago, Banker said:

Miss Glover is getting annoyed with those saying we need to live with COVID, from Twitter!

You have no idea how much self control I use to NOT respond to the "live with it" crowd on Facebook. 

I want the people who say we should "live with it" to do so to the families of the people who have died due to COVID and then watch them realise how insulting their words are.

But we live with other deadly diseases it only seems covid is the one that you don't dare say anything bad about. Part of living with it is accepting people will get sick and possibly die.  

[TheTeapot]

This is where I'm at now. Been trying to condense it into a simple to swallow paragraph.

If this virus had been around for 100 years already it would be a general cold now, and a 50 year old person would have had about 10 infections in their life giving them enough immunity from severe effects. Because this virus is new no one has that. So the vaccines are trying to recreate all that learned immunity to lesson the effects, in a very short amount of time. Cos it is urgent. And they are really really good at it too. It isn't trying to stop transmission because that's impossible, this virus is going to settle into a pattern where it infects about 70% of the population every 3 years or so for ever. We can hasten this endemic state by vaccinating like crazy and not worrying about high transmission, especially in children. There are loads of respiratory viruses that circulate wildly in kids from which they gain immunity for later life, this one is will ultimately be seen no differently. It's just a game of catch up is all. 

I remain amazed that people can think that 'vaccinate and open up' is anything other than the correct thing to be doing.

Also, isolated communities are always susceptible to common illnesses. Suppression has consequences.

Edited November 1, 2021 by TheTeapot

[Non-Believer]

[Itsmeee]

6 hours ago, TheTeapot said:

This is where I'm at now. Been trying to condense it into a simple to swallow paragraph.

If this virus had been around for 100 years already it would be a general cold now, and a 50 year old person would have had about 10 infections in their life giving them enough immunity from severe effects. Because this virus is new no one has that. So the vaccines are trying to recreate all that learned immunity to lesson the effects, in a very short amount of time. Cos it is urgent. And they are really really good at it too. It isn't trying to stop transmission because that's impossible, this virus is going to settle into a pattern where it infects about 70% of the population every 3 years or so for ever. We can hasten this endemic state by vaccinating like crazy and not worrying about high transmission, especially in children. There are loads of respiratory viruses that circulate wildly in kids from which they gain immunity for later life, this one is will ultimately be seen no differently. It's just a game of catch up is all. 

I remain amazed that people can think that 'vaccinate and open up' is anything other than the correct thing to be doing.

Also, isolated communities are always susceptible to common illnesses. Suppression has consequences.

Great post.

 

also Dr Glover isn’t annoyed at people saying we have to live with the virus. She’s annoyed that we think we can live with the virus entirely without mitigations, such as hand washing, wearing masks and ventilation.

[Danoo]

3 hours ago, Non-Believer said:

So as you were then. No knee jerk reactions. Excellent news.

[Banker]

Be interesting to know how many school staff & pupils are wearing masks following the very strongly recommended announcements