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IOM Covid removing restrictions


Filippo

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19 minutes ago, Ramseyboi said:

Figures won’t lie, but I doubt anyone will show them and I can’t be arsed trying to work it out.

Let's just say that according to your profiles, Roxanne has made 2.4 K posts since she joined MF  on 28 June 2006.  You've made 1.7 K posts since you joined MF on 14 July 2021.  That's quite a difference in posting rate.

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2 minutes ago, Roxanne said:

I went out with out one on Friday and immediately felt out of place not wearing one. That’s the first time that’s happened to me. I now have a good supply in and out of the house. Peer pressure. It’s quite nice to see it in action. No coercion, just people making up their own minds and deciding to take mitigation measures. This is how a decent society should work so yes, I feel uplifted by the whole social experiment element to the thing. 
 

I’ll now wait for the reply to tell me that no-one is wearing masks anywhere anytime. 

This is exactly how is should have been all the way along (when mask wearing was/is deemed necessary by people). 

No pressure from the Doomers to force people, no crap from the antivaxxers towards people wearing one. Just people trying to get on with their lives the best they can. 

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32 minutes ago, Roxanne said:

To be fair, we all do a bit of that. It’s human nature. I also like the exchange with certain (most) posters on here. It gives me a buzz - a warm fuzzie if you will. So it’s not just about attention. 

But it’s deffo got an agenda. 

 

Put your warm fuzzy away before you get arrested. 

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5 minutes ago, James Blonde said:

 

South Africa's case fatality rate falls again to 0.5%... aren't they supposed to be in the middle of being ravaged by omicron? 

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I seem to have to spend my time explaining basic mathematical points to those who fell asleep in primary school, but if you have a massive increase in the number of cases then the fatality rate is going to drop dramatically at first.  That is before you consider whether there has been an increase in testing in South Africa to monitor the new variant which will pick up more cases (of all types).

Covid deaths usually happen rather more than 10 days after diagnosis anyway, according to ONS

The World Health Organization (WHO) reported time between developing symptoms and deaths ranging from two to eight weeks. Median time between symptom onset and death differs between studies and was estimated as 16 or 19 days. Similarly, reported median times between ICU admission and death varied across studies and were estimated as 7 or 12.5 days.

So if there are additional deaths resulting from this rise in cases, you wouldn't expect to see it yet.  Hopefully the younger demographic of South Africa would also help keep deaths down and, if their 30% vaccination is targeted at the elderly, the fact that vaccination was only done recently.

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51 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

I seem to have to spend my time explaining basic mathematical points to those who fell asleep in primary school, but if you have a massive increase in the number of cases then the fatality rate is going to drop dramatically at first.  That is before you consider whether there has been an increase in testing in South Africa to monitor the new variant which will pick up more cases (of all types).

Covid deaths usually happen rather more than 10 days after diagnosis anyway, according to ONS

The World Health Organization (WHO) reported time between developing symptoms and deaths ranging from two to eight weeks. Median time between symptom onset and death differs between studies and was estimated as 16 or 19 days. Similarly, reported median times between ICU admission and death varied across studies and were estimated as 7 or 12.5 days.

So if there are additional deaths resulting from this rise in cases, you wouldn't expect to see it yet.  Hopefully the younger demographic of South Africa would also help keep deaths down and, if their 30% vaccination is targeted at the elderly, the fact that vaccination was only done recently.

Alright, Pythagoras.

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2 hours ago, James Blonde said:

 

South Africa's case fatality rate falls again to 0.5%... aren't they supposed to be in the middle of being ravaged by omicron? 

Image

Whilst at the moment I'd like to think that it's likely Omicron is less deadly.  I'd be very wary of any figures reliant on population reporting coming from SA for several reasons. 

1)   It has a comparatively young population

2)   If you've ever been to a township you'll see that people are massively crammed in and I guarantee that the vast majority of cases (and even deaths) there will not go reported.  Sanitation there is only a notion (this could be pro or con for natural resistance). 

3)   It's expensive to go to hospital and many people simply can't afford it. 

4)   We are also talking about a country that fails to be able to keep the lights on. 

5)   It's summer there now too... 

Edited by The Phantom
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12 minutes ago, The Phantom said:

Whilst at the moment I'd like to think that it's likely Omicron is less deadly.  I'd be very wary of any figures reliant on population reporting coming from SA for several reasons. 

1)   It has a comparatively young population

2)   If you've ever been to a township you'll see that people are massively crammed in and I guarantee that the vast majority of cases (and even deaths) there will not go reported.  Sanitation there is only a notion (this could be pro or con for natural resistance). 

3)   It's expensive to go to hospital and many people simply can't afford it. 

4)   We are also talking about a country that fails to be able to keep the lights on. 

5)   It's summer there now too... 

The other big thing is that, they’ve been ravaged by previous waves. 

There was talk in 2020 of them having either reached or nearing herd immunity through infection back then.

I think the balance will be in reinfection. If Omicron can reinfect vaccinated and recovered people, which is looking likely, with a small minority of those need critical care.

Too many people infected at once, and that small minority can still choke your capacity. 

The real answer for the UK is in ensuring the NHS isn’t operating at 95% capacity at any given time, and it can handle surges in demand.

The truth is that’d be expensive and is therefore unlikely to happen.

 

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