IOM Covid removing restrictions

[Cambon]

1 hour ago, Ramseyboi said:

Discuss.

To me Omicron marks the end of any real concern over COVId.  I am pretty certain that in six months a very mild form will be circulating largely unchecked and nobody will care or report on it.

The graph attached is South Africa.  I await all the likely suspects to tell me you can’t trust the data from South Africa 🙄

 

It will be quicker than that. I reckon Easter. 

[roganx87]

On 12/14/2021 at 2:08 PM, code99 said:

It appears that South Africa is only using the Pfizer-BioNTech and Johnson & Johnson vaccines. According to Reuters: 

" two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech offered 70% protection against hospitalisation compared with the unvaccinated during the recent surge in cases and 33% protection against infection. It said this represents a drop from 80% protection against infection and compares with 93% efficacy against hospital admission during South Africa's outbreak of the Delta variant".

"Children appeared to have a 20% higher risk of hospital admission with complications" - not good. Mental health addiction treatment

I know one thing. Less TV, less social media and everyone will be more healthy.

vaccinating children for colds untested vaccine is a crime.

Edited December 27, 2021 by roganx87

[Danoo]

13 hours ago, Roger Mexico said:

@rachomics said earlier that it was a two stage process on the Island.  The standard PCR they use doesn't detect S gene target failure (SGTF)[1] which is associated with Omicron, but they do a further test on a small percentage of positive PCRs which is used to see which variant they are.  I presume some samples are then sent off-Island for full genetic sequencing to be done.

So it may just be that they haven't done enough second tests to pick up more cases.

 

[1]  To quote a UKHSA paper from last week:

The Omicron VOC-21NOV-01 (B.1.1.529) genome also contains the spike deletion at position 69-70 which is associated with S gene target failure (SGTF) in some widely used polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests. Such PCR tests evaluate the presence of 3 SARSCoV-2 genes: Spike (S), N and ORF1ab. SGTF is defined as a PCR test where the N and ORF1ab genes are detected (with Ct values <=30) but the S gene is not. SGTF patterns can be used to assess the spread of Omicron VOC-21NOV-01 (B.1.1.529)

This means that not every SGTF is Omicron (until two weeks ago none were) and not every Omicron sample shows SGTF, but there's a strong association and it gives you a rough idea. 

Does it really matter if we have Omicron strain or not? Are we getting too obsessed with gene sequencing? Point is viruses mutate all the time so we should just be concerned with hospital capacity. Especially in light of this strain being milder than Delta. 

[Nomadic Raptor]

wont all this texting and whole house locked down just force people not to get tested as they won’t want to get stuck and those that just get it will be Ill for a few days

[Roger Mexico]

31 minutes ago, Danoo said:

Does it really matter if we have Omicron strain or not? Are we getting too obsessed with gene sequencing? Point is viruses mutate all the time so we should just be concerned with hospital capacity. Especially in light of this strain being milder than Delta. 

And hospital capacity is linked to how many people catch something which is going to be influenced by the different characteristics of the variants.  So knowing what variants are circulating is important.

There's also nothing yet to say that Omicron is intrinsically 'milder' than Delta, though it may have a less severe average effect because of vaccination and prior infection.  But again that might be counterbalanced by its very fast spread  - even if it's half as likely to put people in hospital, that's no help if twice as many people catch it. 

Despite a lot of the spin that's being placed on the latest information from South Africa, we don't really know anything like enough and some of what we do is more worrying that others.  On the whole at best it's mildly hopeful but no more.

[James Blonde]

11 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

There's also nothing yet to say that Omicron is intrinsically 'milder' than Delta

But it is milder. It's there in black and white. But you choose to ignore it as it doesn't fit your narrative. 

[James Blonde]

1 hour ago, Danoo said:

Does it really matter if we have Omicron strain or not? Are we getting too obsessed with gene sequencing? Point is viruses mutate all the time so we should just be concerned with hospital capacity. Especially in light of this strain being milder than Delta. 

We really are. If we're truly learning to live with it then we can't keep putting life on hold every time there is a new variant. 

If we need to invest in healthcare capacity, new treatments and regular vaccination programmes then so be it. But we need to stop fixating on variants. Covid is now endemic and is here to stay. 

[quilp]

Just now, James Blonde said:

But it is milder. It's there in black and white.

How bad it is going to affect people in the UK is unknown.

 

1 minute ago, James Blonde said:

... we can't keep putting life on hold every time there is a new variant.

If another variant arises that is more virulent, then what?

1 minute ago, James Blonde said:

... we need to stop fixating on variants.

Nonsense. 

[James Blonde]

2 minutes ago, quilp said:

If another variant arises that is more virulent, then what?

We keep going and handle it the same way we do with the seasonal flu. 

[Roger Mexico]

29 minutes ago, James Blonde said:

But it is milder. It's there in black and white. But you choose to ignore it as it doesn't fit your narrative. 

Well, according to "vaccine expert Shabir Mahdi of the University of the Witwatersrand, who has led vaccine trials in the country, and [who]warned that South Africa’s experience of Omicron might not be a reliable indicator for how the Omicron outbreak unfolds in other countries."

Addressing the issue of whether Omicron is “milder” than other previous variants, Mahdi said the high levels of previous exposure meant that experts were “simply unable to make a meaningful head to head comparison of virulence with omicron in comparison with the other variants.

“[That is] imply because of the underpinning of immunity that currently exists which is different to what existed in the past, and that immunity is going to bring about some change in the clinical course of the infection, including the likelihood of infection progressing to severe disease.”

Which was the point I was making.  This isn't necessarily a bad thing, given the high level of protection from vaccine plus booster and prior infection in the UK and here (the antigen levels in the UK are higher than in SA even) but it makes comparisons difficult.

Still I'm sure you know much better than him.

[The Phantom]

50 minutes ago, James Blonde said:

It's there in black and white. 

Careful, it's South Africa we're talking about!

[WTF]

Ramseyboi said elsewhere  🙄

 

" I see we are now up to 12 possible cases.  Surely this will just go the way of delta and become the dominant strain?

How many of us was that supposed to kill again? "

 

i can answer that ,    no where near the amount of people they were claiming it 'could' .

[Ramseyboi]

32 minutes ago, WTF said:

Ramseyboi said elsewhere  🙄

 

" I see we are now up to 12 possible cases.  Surely this will just go the way of delta and become the dominant strain?

How many of us was that supposed to kill again? "

 

i can answer that ,    no where near the amount of people they were claiming it 'could' .

Which was exactly my point.  We keep implementing precautions based on models and what ifs.  Now if even one of them had been to have been even close to being accurate then I might take them seriously but they haven’t been.

The real data that we have so far from SA very obviously shows that as Onicron becomes more widespread severe illness and death drastically reduces.  It makes people a bit ill for a few days, continues to circulate, builds more protection in the population and that’s it.  It doesn’t lead to loads of deaths and hospitals full of people.  Same as delta didn’t, or beta, or Brazil whatever all the others that were meant to kill us all didn’t.

For those who don’t think it’s a milder strain.  Here, have the South Africa graph again then check their vaccination rates compared to us..

 

[the stinking enigma]

Seems to me that their vulnerable are already dead

[P.K.]

5 hours ago, Ramseyboi said:

Yeah but imagine what “might” happen in the future “if” the scientists worse case scenarios play out.

Question.  Have any of the scientific predictions of deaths etc even one close to coming true?  All the figures decisions have been based on appear to have been massively overplayed.

You always always always "Plan for the worst. Hope for the best..."

The logic is simple. If you fail to plan for the worst and the worst happens your incredible stupidity and lack of preparedness may lead to lots of unnecessary fatalities. This will all be your fault.

Bozo's track record of making decisions in a timely manner is at best lamentable and at worst bordering on the criminally negligent. Let's all pray his desperation to be popular doesn't override the scientific advice.

Have to say the mixed messaging of "Work from home and enjoy your xmas with friends and family" is typical Bozo Bollox.