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IOM Covid removing restrictions


Filippo

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Latest from the Times suggesting that they're binning off free LFTs soon.

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A senior Whitehall source said: “I don’t think we are in a world where we can continue to hand out free lateral flow tests to everybody for evermore. It’s likely we will move to a scenario where there is less testing but where we have a capacity to ramp it up if necessary, such as in the winter.”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/end-of-free-lateral-flow-tests-as-country-told-to-live-with-covid-3bpz8lnqf

https://archive.is/1IbIw

But, they've said that since about July last year too.

I'd guess the timing will be as we move over this peak and towards spring and prevalence drops.

Interestingly, another quote from Zahawi.

Quote

“This is a big bump in the road but we have to make sure we are able to cope,” he said. “The virus is going to be with us for maybe five or six years longer and we are going to continue to have variants but vaccines will get better and we are going to have polyvalent and multivalent vaccines by next year.”

5 or 6 years is oddly specific.

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13 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

Interestingly, another quote from Zahawi.

5 or 6 years is oddly specific.

How on earth can he make that prediction, unless he's been in discussions with the virus? The mutations, which are unknown yet, will surely determine how long this is going to go on for?

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38 minutes ago, offshoremanxman said:

Not sure. Sickness benefit stopped being £280PW this week and now it’s standard sickness pay plus £300 one off payment. So it’s not that much different than it has been. The only benefit is you get the £300 even if you aren’t off for a week. 

I think Teapot meant because they're not going to be free anymore.

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I get pretty frustrated by our local alarmists, and have been pretty forthright in my views as to where we are, and where we are going. I get shut down, told I'm dealing 'hopium' and 'copium', or 'nonsense'. That vaccines aren't enough, that we must wear masks to stop the spread, or sometimes they'll chuck credentialism at me.

Well, here is Dr Clive Dix, former chair of the UK vaccine taskforce (probably the only bit of the UKs response that can be called a success) with some words that regular readers of my hopium may recognise.

"We now need to manage disease, not virus spread"

"Dix said the government should support research and analysis of how effective vaccines had been at producing “memory B- and T-cell immunity” – parts of the immune system that recognise Covid – and particularly how they worked for over-60s and vulnerable groups with underlying health conditions.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/08/end-mass-jabs-and-live-with-covid-says-ex-head-of-vaccine-taskforce

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1 hour ago, TheTeapot said:

I get pretty frustrated by our local alarmists, and have been pretty forthright in my views as to where we are, and where we are going. I get shut down, told I'm dealing 'hopium' and 'copium', or 'nonsense'. That vaccines aren't enough, that we must wear masks to stop the spread, or sometimes they'll chuck credentialism at me.

Well, here is Dr Clive Dix, former chair of the UK vaccine taskforce (probably the only bit of the UKs response that can be called a success) with some words that regular readers of my hopium may recognise.

"We now need to manage disease, not virus spread"

"Dix said the government should support research and analysis of how effective vaccines had been at producing “memory B- and T-cell immunity” – parts of the immune system that recognise Covid – and particularly how they worked for over-60s and vulnerable groups with underlying health conditions.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/08/end-mass-jabs-and-live-with-covid-says-ex-head-of-vaccine-taskforce

You have to query whether vaccines are as good as naturally acquired immunity through infection.  They are a powerful tool to allow natural infection to spread whilst lessening the impact of severe symptoms.  So to that extent, I agree.  But the time must surely be approaching where natural immunity is the key, so masks are probably not a good idea in the longer term.

Whether we have reached that point is not something I am qualified to give a view on, but we must surely be near?  

 

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4 minutes ago, Gladys said:

You have to query whether vaccines are as good as naturally acquired immunity through infection.  They are a powerful tool to allow natural infection to spread whilst lessening the impact of severe symptoms.  So to that extent, I agree.  But the time must surely be approaching where natural immunity is the key, so masks are probably not a good idea in the longer term.

Whether we have reached that point is not something I am qualified to give a view on, but we must surely be near?  

 

Does the human body know the difference between a synthetic stimulus and a natural stimulus?

Thats a genuine question. Something I wonder about. If the same antibodies are generated then perhaps not. Maybe though there is a subtle difference in the antibodies produced. 

Why would a natural immunity last longer and/or be better. Again a question not a challenge. 

It's a complex science but some bofffin must know.

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Just now, Happier diner said:

Does the human body know the difference between a synthetic stimulus and a natural stimulus?

Thats a genuine question. Something I wonder about. If the same antibodies are generated then perhaps not. Maybe though there is a subtle difference in the antibodies produced. 

Why would a natural immunity last longer and/or be better. Again a question not a challenge. 

It's a complex science but some bofffin must know.

I can't answer those questions, but it seems to me that the vaccines target a specific part of the virus whereas perhaps a natural immune response is more comprehensive on what it attacks? 

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Just now, Happier diner said:

Does the human body know the difference between a synthetic stimulus and a natural stimulus?

Thats a genuine question. Something I wonder about. If the same antibodies are generated then perhaps not. Maybe though there is a subtle difference in the antibodies produced. 

Why would a natural immunity last longer and/or be better. Again a question not a challenge. 

It's a complex science but some bofffin must know.

Yes there is a difference - vaccines give you just a little bit of the virus to fight off, so when you get an infection there is a much broader immune response. In addition, the cellular immune response results in a whole load of  cytokines (chemicals which signal to other cells) being produced which stimulate other bits of the immune system to develop memory. 
 

I’ve thought from the start that the best immunity will be from a vaccine (giving a limited response, but stopping you dying) followed by an infection (to broaden the response and generate immune memory). That’s where many of us are right now. 

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32 minutes ago, Gladys said:

You have to query whether vaccines are as good as naturally acquired immunity through infection.  They are a powerful tool to allow natural infection to spread whilst lessening the impact of severe symptoms.  So to that extent, I agree.  But the time must surely be approaching where natural immunity is the key, so masks are probably not a good idea in the longer term.

Whether we have reached that point is not something I am qualified to give a view on, but we must surely be near?  

 

The vaccines are absolutely great. They trigger multiple responses of the immune system, and evidence grows daily that the crucial factors that underpin your immune system are working because of them. Getting vaccinated 3 times as an adult is absolutely the best thing you can possibly do regarding this virus. There can be no argument against by anyone arguing in good faith.

But that is not to downplay the effects of an infection on your immune system. This too is crucial, and for many diseases an infection often triggers a wider but riskier immune response than a vaccine. Obviously we know that for many people, especially adjusted by age, meeting this virus before vaccination is a very bad thing. Post vaccination is different altogether, and you should consider an infection as further boosting. There are some scientists who are suggesting each individual infection should be counted as a 'dose', and unvaccinated people who perhaps had an infection early in the pandemic and have decided that is good enough are probably running a bit of a risk.

Those are individual things though, looking at the whole society thing waves end when there has been enough transmission for now and the virus struggles to find new people to infect. Loads of people all having blood full of antibodies will do just that, but those antibodies generated however, don't last that long.

So yeah, drop the masks and stop trying to suppress, get this wave over for a few months til the next one.

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