Banker Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Cambon said: Banker wants a holibob So basically you’re admitting you made all the shit about gyms , pools etc up as usual? typical liar, when challenged try’s another lie and can’t provide any evidence if his lies Edited September 11, 2020 by Banker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy Onchan Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 1 hour ago, wrighty said: I think everyone is scared to break ranks, except the Swedes who just got on with it from the start and were widely pilloried for doing so little lockdown wise. Their chief epidemiologist said at the start that he thought they'd all end up the same, and judging by deaths per capita he's not far off. I certainly think nobody should be worried about returning university students - in my view it's ideal that thousands of 18-21 year olds get covid with almost no ill effects over the next month or two and increase the overall herd immunity. The 'dry tinder' metaphor may be very apt here once our borders open. The only issue I have about the herd 'solution' is that it's only effective for as long as the antibody hangs around, max 3 months? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 Not sure what use this will be as you can’t get to Ireland without going via England https://www.three.fm/news/isle-of-man-news/ireland-to-add-iom-to-covid19-green-list/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cambon Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 55 minutes ago, Banker said: So basically you’re admitting you made all the shit about gyms , pools etc up as usual? typical liar, when challenged try’s another lie and can’t provide any evidence if his lies No. I want you to explain to me, convince me that there is an economically advantageous reason to adopt Jerseys approach. Made up? No. Jersey and Guernsey are investing in testing. Iom already has invested. Fact. Jersey has lots of restrictions in place. Fact. Guernsey and Iom do not. Fact. Show me your economic proof. I want the borders relaxed as much, or more than you. But it has to be done in a way that protects the island, its people and its economy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrighty Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 27 minutes ago, Andy Onchan said: The only issue I have about the herd 'solution' is that it's only effective for as long as the antibody hangs around, max 3 months? T cells. It's becoming clearer that antibodies are not the main immune modality at work here. T memory cells, cross reacting with other coronavirus infections are probably why some people (80% or so according to that video, but a figure I've seen before too) either don't get covid or don't get ill with it. These hang around much longer, and are ready to spring into action even if most of the antibodies have gone. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, Cambon said: No. I want you to explain to me, convince me that there is an economically advantageous reason to adopt Jerseys approach. Made up? No. Jersey and Guernsey are investing in testing. Iom already has invested. Fact. Jersey has lots of restrictions in place. Fact. Guernsey and Iom do not. Fact. Show me your economic proof. I want the borders relaxed as much, or more than you. But it has to be done in a way that protects the island, its people and its economy. We are all asking for your proof of gyms, pools , cinemas etc being closed in Jersey and your 1000 job losses from this? just admit you made it up like the face masks lies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VinnieK Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 (edited) 3 hours ago, wrighty said: Makes a lot of sense - seems well researched too. Could be confirmation bias on my part. I actually watched the whole thing which is rare for me. I'd be keen to see it picked apart by some others on here, particularly @VinnieK, @Roger Mexico, @Chinahand, @rachomics Will have a proper watch later, but something about his reasoning seems a bit fishy. There are lots and lots and lots of charts, but the arguments largely seem like they hinge on possibly superficial similarities of graph shapes, a tendency to focus purely on deaths and ignore the ventilator/ICU cases, and a running and potentially fallacious comparison with Sweden. I'd be more convinced if he'd presented evidence that any kind of effort to control for variables across comparisons had been implemented, but I can't find any indication that this is the case. Also, the value of some of the evidence to the point being made is debatable. For instance, the "16 Possible Factors for Sweden’s High COVID Death Rate among the Nordics" is actually written by three economists, for an economics journal, and an awful lot of the reasons in it are couched in very vague language (with more than a few starting "Sweden may" or "Sweden might"). That's not to rubbish the paper, but the emphasis the guy puts on it as a key result is suspiciously disproportionate. I may well be wrong, but my first impression is that this looks to be built on a process of joining the dots between a whole big sack of cherry-picked evidence. But maybe he's right, in which case I'll enthusiastically bookmark "how to fix my heart disease" from him, just in case. Edited September 11, 2020 by VinnieK 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrighty Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 A vaccine is going to be the way out of this mess. Even one that doesn't work particularly well at all. Governments will declare that the problem has been solved, everyone will get a shot of a safe, but questionably effective, vaccine, and then we'll all go back to normal. Coronavirus will still exist, and we'll still have covid cases and deaths, just like we get flu cases and deaths. I've been saying this for a while now. I don't think we can open borders here, without testing in some shape or form, until the rest or Europe (not just UK) get their act together and get over this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrighty Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 1 minute ago, VinnieK said: I may well be wrong, but my first impression is that this looks to be built on a process of joining the dots between a whole big sack of cherry-picked evidence. Thanks VK. I'd like it to be right, perhaps that's my problem. There's definitely something in it though - my sources on the ground in the UK tell me that deaths, hospital admissions and ITU cases are just not an issue at the moment, despite the seemingly rising case numbers, which is definitely due to more and more testing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VinnieK Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, wrighty said: Thanks VK. I'd like it to be right, perhaps that's my problem. There's definitely something in it though - my sources on the ground in the UK tell me that deaths, hospital admissions and ITU cases are just not an issue at the moment, despite the seemingly rising case numbers, which is definitely due to more and more testing. My instinct is that he is probably partly right in a few places, but not the whole thing and even then possibly not for the right reasons. I'd be interested to know what comes out of what's happening in France at the moment, as I believe that their ITUs are under pressure at the moment. Edited September 11, 2020 by VinnieK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southfork Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 11 minutes ago, wrighty said: I don't think we can open borders here, without testing in some shape or form, until the rest or Europe (not just UK) get their act together and get over this. We’ve got no chance then as there seems to be a deliberate agenda against testing people as they don’t seem to want to psychologically destabilize all the idiots who believe that we have no Covid here and that we have no chance of ever having Covid here again as long as our loosely monitored and largely unpoliced 14 day self isolation rules stay in place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 Just now, Southfork said: We’ve got no chance then as there seems to be a deliberate agenda against testing people as they don’t seem to want to psychologically destabilize all the idiots who believe that we have no Covid here and that we have no chance of ever having Covid here again as long as our loosely monitored and largely unpoliced 14 day self isolation rules stay in place. Correct, we don’t even seem to have a plan. we also have idiots like cambon spreading untruths about position in Jersey to try and scare others into supporting status quo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gladys Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 2 hours ago, wrighty said: The 'dry tinder' metaphor may be very apt here once our borders open. That Is the real issue, not holidays in my opinion. Did we have the same dip in fatalities from flu last year that would create the dry tinder effect? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cambon Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Banker said: We are all asking for your proof of gyms, pools , cinemas etc being closed in Jersey and your 1000 job losses from this? just admit you made it up like the face masks lies Read it for yourself. https://www.gov.je/News/2020/Pages/Level1Announcement. You probably cannot be arsed to read it all, so these are some of the still prohibited activities. There are many more, but this covers what you accuse me of making up. Oh, and Cineworld is on the list too. High intensity physical activity inside Jacuzzis, plunge pools, steam rooms, saunas, Turkish bath Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southfork Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 8 minutes ago, Cambon said: High intensity physical activity inside That’s a meaningless definition to be honest. That could be anything from a threesome to wanking. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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