John Wright Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 23 hours ago, emesde said: When the NHS letter --covid pass-- was issued it was open ended with no expiry date . I phoned up for a new one as my original did not have my booster jab on it. The girl i spoke to said all NHS letters for the covid pass now had a 30 day expiry, As you need to order it a week before you go in order to allow for delivery etc it means that it will only have a useful life of around 3 weeks, Be careful if you are relying on the paper version. The reason for the new hard copy time limit is that the paper one couldn’t be amended or suspended if you got covid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Alf is doing a Covid briefing tomorrow at 5pm, maybe some changes to forms etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTeapot Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Hedgehog Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 55 minutes ago, Banker said: Alf is doing a Covid briefing tomorrow at 5pm, maybe some changes to forms etc Has to be copying Jersey's recent announcements surely. If they can bin off the bo(a)rder controls in time for when I go away the week after next then that would be just smashing. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 18 minutes ago, Dave Hedgehog said: Has to be copying Jersey's recent announcements surely. If they can bin off the bo(a)rder controls in time for when I go away the week after next then that would be just smashing. Hopefully but a few of the Twitter mob are already objecting! Dudley complaining that only 1 person in Ramsey coop wore a mask today! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nellie Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 52 minutes ago, Banker said: Hopefully but a few of the Twitter mob are already objecting! Dudley complaining that only 1 person in Ramsey coop wore a mask today! I saw that too. Dudley seems to have totally lost his marbles on all this. A smart and able guy, and, with his background, probably a very sound judge. But he doesn’t seem able to recognise that the risk profile has changed totally and we have to get back to normality, at some stage, along with the rest of the World! Quite sad really! 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrighty Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Throughout this pandemic people have been saying covid is like flu and have been rightly shouted down for it. Until now. David Spiegelhalter on R4 today quoting ONS figures for the IFR at 0.1%, which he said was the same as flu. So to me at least it seems that thanks to omicron being less severe (he also said that there’s virtually nobody going to ITU with it) and most being vaccinated, we’re over this covid pandemic, for now at least. Time to get on with it. 6 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
747-400 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 A paper from John Hopkins, reaching a conclusion that lockdowns maybe did not add anything to the overall outcome so far. "A LITERATURE REVIEW AND META-ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF LOCKDOWNS ON COVID-19 MORTALITY" https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/files/2022/01/A-Literature-Review-and-Meta-Analysis-of-the-Effects-of-Lockdowns-on-COVID-19-Mortality.pdf 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
0bserver Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 44 minutes ago, wrighty said: Throughout this pandemic people have been saying covid is like flu and have been rightly shouted down for it. Until now. David Spiegelhalter on R4 today quoting ONS figures for the IFR at 0.1%, which he said was the same as flu. So to me at least it seems that thanks to omicron being less severe (he also said that there’s virtually nobody going to ITU with it) and most being vaccinated, we’re over this covid pandemic, for now at least. Time to get on with it. Some of the people rubbishing the flu comparison underestimate how serious the flu actually is. Closest I've ever been to dying was the flu, closely followed by a tram ride down Snaefell another time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
0bserver Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, offshoremanxman said: You rarely hear of anyone with long-flu though. Post-viral fatigue? https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58726775.amp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Mexico Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 hours ago, wrighty said: Throughout this pandemic people have been saying covid is like flu and have been rightly shouted down for it. Until now. David Spiegelhalter on R4 today quoting ONS figures for the IFR at 0.1%, which he said was the same as flu. No quite right for a number of reasons. Firstly it's age dependent and the IFR seems to be about twice as high in older group. Still an enormous drop drop from what the gap was as the GIF in this tweet shows: Secondly as John Burn-Murdoch also points out, it's not just IFR that matters but also how transmissible the disease is. So if Covid is twice as deadly but five times as transmissible then you get ten times the number of deaths. And of course a seasonal flu epidemic can be quite bad on its own. And the one thing we know about Omicron is that it is very transmissible indeed. And the BA.2 sub-variant seem even more so, though so far it doesn't seem any less deadly. The latest VOC report shows over a thousand sequenced cases, mainly in the South East, so we can expect it here soon[1]. But thirdly and most importantly, the main reason why the UK has got away with the Omicron wave comparatively lightly is because of high vaccination rates (including booster). There's a long JBM thread from a couple of days ago (linked to FT articles that appeared at the same time) which how much the comparatively low rates of US vaccination (especially among the elderly) have caused much higher hospitalisation rates there. to put it another way: You can compare to other countries as well: And the importance of boosters can't be underestimated: Because one of the problems the US has isn't just a lower rate of vaccination, but the paradox that they started earlier, so those who were unboosted had had their immunity fade away for longer (the opposite happened with South Africa where the lack of boosters matter less). But all this means that we can't relax about Covid and assume we are now safe. [1] The Census shows the most common countries of birth outside the British Isles are #1 South Africa (whence Omicron) and #2 Philippines (whence BA.2) so it may be here already. Expect the next one to from #3 Poland. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTeapot Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 (edited) It is remarkable that Roger can read the same thread and come to different conclusions. The UK 'got away with' the omicron wave because they put in a sensible plan to vaccinate and boost people according to age. That's not 'getting away with', its doing things right. The US didn't and has focused on masking kids (two year olds in fucking nursery!!) and boosting teenagers. The main lesson to learn from the pandemic is the devasting effects of entirely normal viruses in aging populations with low immunity. ALL common respiratory viruses transmit like crazy, and it is a good thing, because the only way you gain immunity for later life is by getting them first when when you are young, and regular boosts throughout life. Many times you contract these viruses and don't even know, sometimes you'll get a cold. All 4 of our southern MHKs are fucking stupid enough to fail to understand this, and so is the completely insane CDC. "But all this means that we can't relax about Covid and assume we are now safe." says Roger. I disagree, 'Covid' has pretty much been defeated in the British Isles, the amount of immunity in the population means the disease burden is minimal. Lots of infection little disease. Hooray. Edited February 3, 2022 by TheTeapot 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTeapot Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 I'm right up for an argument about it all, but I'm going to work. I'll point out though that many of the common respiratory viruses we encounter are estimated to infect approx 70% of a population every 3 years. SarsCov2 hasn't got to 50% in two. It isn't in its final form yet, it can get EVEN MORE transmissible. Enjoy your day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
0bserver Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 The minimum outcomes from the Cannan briefing will hopefully be: 1) All travel and border restrictions 2) The end of quarantine/isolation for positive covid cases 3) The ending of the supply of LFDa 4) The scrapping of the daily covid numbers and the weekly surveillance report 5) Announcing some form of help for those struggling to wean themselves off the daily numbers/doom and gloom merchants. 6) scrapping all advice in relation to face masks. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gladys Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 44 minutes ago, 0bserver said: The minimum outcomes from the Cannan briefing will hopefully be: 1) All travel and border restrictions 2) The end of quarantine/isolation for positive covid cases 3) The ending of the supply of LFDa 4) The scrapping of the daily covid numbers and the weekly surveillance report 5) Announcing some form of help for those struggling to wean themselves off the daily numbers/doom and gloom merchants. 6) scrapping all advice in relation to face masks. Beyond 'get a grip' for 5, what would you suggest? The fear is very real for some people, many of whom are rational and intelligent. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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