craggy_steve Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, Out of the blue said: There was an interesting interview with the FT stats man on Thursday’s Radio 4 PM program. Basically it would now appear that as a result of the vaccination program, natural immunity from being infected and the milder variant, that Flu is now deadlier than Covid. Yep. Problem is that there are many more people getting infected with covid than would normally catch 'flu, and it seems to be circulation in society for a much greater proportion of the year. So on an individual case basis Covid may be statistically (slightly) less lethal than 'flu, but there are many more cases. Shows how well we (humanity) have done tho'. Before vaccines the original strain of covid was statistically c. 18 times more lethal than 'flu. Now it's c 0.9 times as lethal or thereabouts despite Delta and Omicron being more lethal than the original strain. Phenomenal achievement. If we could find truly workable measures to reduce spread then it really would "be over". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 4 hours ago, doc.fixit said: I think it's here already. yes, 38 years ago. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Phantom Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 BREAK OUT THE NEW VARIANT!!!!! https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60709712 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utah 01 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 OMG, the BBC will not let this go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Mexico Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 51 minutes ago, Out of the blue said: There was an interesting interview with the FT stats man on Thursday’s Radio 4 PM program. Basically it would now appear that as a result of the vaccination program, natural immunity from being infected and the milder variant, that Flu is now deadlier than Covid. Yes John Burn-Murdoch's related Twitter thread is here and there are lots of interesting graphs, which don't come across that well on the radio. But note that he says "a Covid infection now carries less mortality risk than a flu infection", not it's less deadly, because Covid may (and does) infect more people and so kill more than flu overall. This is all explored in that Twitter thread. And he also makes the point that almost all of the improvement comes from vaccination. Omicron may be slightly milder, but not enough to compensate it for being more infectious. As they are currently finding in Hong Kong.[1] Also the comparison is against Winter flu epidemics and Covid can be deadly at any time and if so will be more deadly again. Also reduced social mixing will have paid a part in suppressing infection (deaths from other infectious respiratory diseases are down on normal, which shows this) and as that changes, deaths will rise again. My real worry is whether further boosters may be needed and governments are too busy pretending everything is back to normal to notice. [1] The article doesn't really explain this, but rather than the zero-Covid policy, the real problem is the failure to vaccinate the elderly (rates are actually higher among the younger) and that they are using the Chinese vaccines, which seem to wear off more quickly though may still be effective if boosted with mRNA vaccines. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utah 01 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 2 hours ago, quilp said: Wanker. You're looking in the mirror again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTeapot Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 It really is like people have learned absolutely fuck all from the last two years at times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTeapot Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 The Hong Kong thing Roger mentions is really important, and it should absolutely hammer home the key point - vaccines work and everything else is nonsense It is an absolute disaster what is happening in Hong Kong, and it was widely warned about quite some time ago. Like New Zealand they followed a zero policy, but New Zealand prioritised vaccinations by age. There are graphs out there comparing the two (or you can make your own on myworldindata) where they are both currently riding the same case wave, but the death rates are wildly different. Lots of under 50s vaccinated in Hong Kong. Well done. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
momo65 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 hour ago, TheTeapot said: The Hong Kong thing Roger mentions is really important, and it should absolutely hammer home the key point - vaccines work and everything else is nonsense It is an absolute disaster what is happening in Hong Kong, and it was widely warned about quite some time ago. Like New Zealand they followed a zero policy, but New Zealand prioritised vaccinations by age. There are graphs out there comparing the two (or you can make your own on myworldindata) where they are both currently riding the same case wave, but the death rates are wildly different. Lots of under 50s vaccinated in Hong Kong. Well done. Yet an FFP3 mask provides high levels of protection. Solid evidence for that. So they aren't nonsense. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 On 3/9/2022 at 12:41 PM, snowman said: UK plf for international arrivals is going to be removed soon. Watch this space. Potentially as soon as 18 March Gibraltar has said they are removing the PLF on the 18th. Who's next ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTeapot Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 (edited) 13 minutes ago, momo65 said: Yet an FFP3 mask provides high levels of protection. Solid evidence for that. So they aren't nonsense. What about cloth masks? Or mask mandates? Or masks in schools? Any evidence of any of those things working? Oh, no, there isn't any because it doesn't exist. You're full of shit, you and your little crew. You repeatedly disparaged me and my views despite me being right, and being proven to be right again now with what is happening, you've pushed exaggerated stories and borderline lies about neurological effects and harm in children, you've completely ignored history and the similarities with existing viruses; and yet here you are again, pushing mask wearing despite EVERYTHING that has happened in the last two years. It's pathetic. Get vaccinated. Edited March 11, 2022 by TheTeapot 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTeapot Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, offshoremanxman said: The Hong Kong thing isn’t really linked to vaccines alone though. Its vaccination rate is relatively high at 70% now but it’s a false measure as most of them are vaccinated with Sinovac which means they might has well have been injected with two rounds of cold water as the Chinese vaccine is about 51% effective against Moderna’s 94%. Which is also a reason (besides the fact that China wants to beat compliance with Chinese state rules into the population) why their government is following a doomed and insane zero Covid strategy that meant that 5,000 people left the country on last Sunday alone. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-07/hong-kong-exodus-continues-with-record-number-of-people-leaving The 70% figure doesn't matter when you look at who has had them, a 2 sec google gives me this cos I can't arsed going and finding better details but you can see the problem right there, its staring you in the face 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
momo65 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, TheTeapot said: What about cloth masks? Or mask mandates? Or masks in schools? Any evidence of any of those things working? Oh, no, there isn't any because it doesn't exist. You're full of shit, you and your little crew. You repeatedly disparaged me and my views despite me being right, and being proven to be right again now with what is happening, you've pushed exaggerated stories and borderline lies about neurological effects and harm in children, you've completely ignored history and the similarities with existing viruses; and yet here you are again, pushing mask wearing despite EVERYTHING that has happened in the last two years. It's pathetic. Get vaccinated. But as you now agree FFP3 masks do work plainly your assertion that everything else is useless was wrong too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTeapot Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just now, momo65 said: But as you now agree FFP3 masks do work plainly your assertion that everything else is useless was wrong too. Still making things up then. I reckon in specific circumstances an FFP3 mask might have an effect, and am certain you could get great results in a lab. But they obviously don't make a blind bit of difference in the real world, just look at what has happened, talk to people in different countries where they've had much stricter rules with basically the same results repeated everywhere, just apply some critical thinking. Would you be brave enough to be in a closed room with someone you know to have covid wearing one? I somehow doubt the faith is that strong. Things that matter now - how old and unwell a population is, how well vaccinated those people are. Things that don't - Everything else 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
momo65 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, TheTeapot said: Still making things up then. I reckon in specific circumstances an FFP3 mask might have an effect, and am certain you could get great results in a lab. But they obviously don't make a blind bit of difference in the real world, just look at what has happened, talk to people in different countries where they've had much stricter rules with basically the same results repeated everywhere, just apply some critical thinking. Would you be brave enough to be in a closed room with someone you know to have covid wearing one? I somehow doubt the faith is that strong. Things that matter now - how old and unwell a population is, how well vaccinated those people are. Things that don't - Everything else With 8 in hospital it probably means Covid ward mat open again soon with knock on for other hospital services. That matters to everyone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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