IOM Covid removing restrictions

[TheTeapot]

4 minutes ago, thesultanofsheight said:

And yet few (comparatively) actually seem to be ending up in hospital. More testing = more (relatively harmless) cases identified. 

While this is currently reasonably correct, just as back in March/April it appears the UK is lagging Spain by a couple of weeks, and their hospital rates and indeed deaths are going up pretty sharply now. Back in July when they'd pretty much got it under control in Spain they had several days with no deaths, and weekly averages of low two figures. Picked up into the hundreds now. As much as people may wish to downplay this (and it's clear it's nowhere near as bad as cataclysmic predictions like the imperial college model) it is a clear and obvious danger. All of the evidence for what is going to happen is right there staring people in the face, yet people (willingly?) can't see it.

[thesultanofsheight]

2 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

While this is currently reasonably correct, just as back in March/April it appears the UK is lagging Spain by a couple of weeks, and their hospital rates and indeed deaths are going up pretty sharply now. As much as people may wish to downplay this (and it's clear it's nowhere near as bad as cataclysmic predictions like the imperial college model) it is a clear and obvious danger. All of the evidence for what is going to happen is right there staring people in the face, yet people (willingly?) can't see it.

I eagerly await your told you so in a couple of weeks then if it all rolls out as predicted (it won’t). 

[TheTeapot]

Can you not read?

[thesultanofsheight]

6 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

Can you not read?

Yes 

“it is a clear and obvious danger. All of the evidence for what is going to happen is right there staring people in the face, yet people (willingly?) can't see it.“

No it isn’t. It hasn’t happened yet. Maybe post retrospectively in jubilation when/if it does? 

Edited September 16, 2020 by thesultanofsheight

[TheTeapot]

Oh, ok. Well I'll just leave it there then, because I can't be arsed discussing things with people who outright refuse to pay any attention.

[Roger Mexico]

18 minutes ago, thesultanofsheight said:

And yet few (comparatively) actually seem to be ending up in hospital. More testing = more (relatively harmless) cases identified. 

I'll just repeat what I said a day ago, adding on today's figures:

But I wouldn't get too complacent about the numbers in hospital.  If you look at the way the number with Covid in English hospitals has gone over the last week (figures from graph on here):

8 Sep: 519

9 Sep; 539

10 Sep: 553

11 Sep: 600

12 Sep: 633

13 Sep: 661

14 Sep: 782

15 Sep: 866

16 Sep 894

I'm slightly dubious about the latest because the figures for new admissions for today isn't shown on the same page.  But the pattern is clear.

It's not just the current numbers (though they are already higher than those we saw at any time in August) it's the way they are increasing so rapidly.  Exactly the same thing happened in mid-March and people were downplaying this in exactly the same way.

As you can also see from another graph on the same page the number requiring mechanical ventilation is also now rising in the same way.

[thesultanofsheight]

8 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

Oh, ok. Well I'll just leave it there then, because I can't be arsed discussing things with people who outright refuse to pay any attention.

I pay a lot of attention to dubious data and false scenario painting. 

[thesultanofsheight]

19 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

I'll just repeat what I said a day ago, adding on today's figures:

But I wouldn't get too complacent about the numbers in hospital.  If you look at the way the number with Covid in English hospitals has gone over the last week (figures from graph on here):

8 Sep: 519

9 Sep; 539

10 Sep: 553

11 Sep: 600

12 Sep: 633

13 Sep: 661

14 Sep: 782

15 Sep: 866

16 Sep 894

An increase of a couple of hundred out of SIXTY FIVE MILLION PEOPLE.

0.00137% of the UK population. 

Edited September 16, 2020 by thesultanofsheight

[Uhtred]

The reality of COVID 19 in the UK - perhaps I should really say England - is driven by two factors (other than the nasty virus itself). (1) Far too many idiotic and irresponsible people living in a jurisdiction having (2) the most incompetent government in living memory - and probably of all time. That’s COVID 19 in a nutshell.

[TheTeapot]

31 minutes ago, thesultanofsheight said:

Yes 

“it is a clear and obvious danger. All of the evidence for what is going to happen is right there staring people in the face, yet people (willingly?) can't see it.“

No it isn’t. It hasn’t happened yet. Maybe post retrospectively in jubilation when/if it does? 

You've done that thing again where you edit your post after someone has replied just to be an asshole.

[thesultanofsheight]

8 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

You've done that thing again where you edit your post after someone has replied just to be an asshole.

894 people in hospital out of the UK population is 0.00137% of the total UK population. I doubt the NHS is stressed by this spiraling “second wave” when 9,000,000 people are currently on state support or are unemployed. 

Edited September 16, 2020 by thesultanofsheight

[tetchtyke]

1 hour ago, pongo said:

Given that much of the rest of the world is rapidly moving toward another lockdown scenario, most of us will probably welcome the continued caution @Banker.

The UK seems to be in a particular mess - with cases and hospital admissions increasing. Let's be honest - most sensible people will be avoiding that place like the plague unless their visit is urgent.

You couldn't pay me to go to the UK right now. I've got a 10yo daughter over there. My parents live there. It's tough not being able to see them. But look at what they have to put up with in daily life and then look at what we get to do.

My main worry is a community case getting in here and everyone losing their shit. The first bit will happen, I just hope to God we don't panic when it does.

I know it's fashionable to call Quayle a muppet and Covid an overreaction, but actually I think the government have got it pretty much spot on. And I have confidence in the border permits and the testing.

[thesultanofsheight]

14 minutes ago, tetchtyke said:

You couldn't pay me to go to the UK right now. I've got a 10yo daughter over there. My parents live there. It's tough not being able to see them. But look at what they have to put up with in daily life and then look at what we get to do.

I’d be more worried about my (alleged) 10 year old daughter and my parents in the UK than myself and the IOM in such (alleged) circumstances. To the point that I’d probably be across visiting them right now as they would be more important to me than living in an artificial bubble because of a virus that kills such a tiny fractional percentage of people of my age. That’s 0.0037% of the UK population currently in hospital. Put your lottery numbers on. Your odds of winning something decent are better than that. 

Edited September 16, 2020 by thesultanofsheight

[benl]

24 minutes ago, thesultanofsheight said:

894 people in hospital out of the UK population is 0.00137% of the total UK population. I doubt the NHS is stressed by this spiraling “second wave” when 9,000,000 people are currently on state support or are unemployed

I'd love nothing more than for you to be right. However, in retrospect in A&Es in Liverpool we were seeing cases of covid mainly in young adults from late January/early February, but there was a bit of denial and no real plan on a national level. It was from March it got really messy and the number of cases at that time point was a huge under estimate, doctors were going through notes and binning swabs from people who were being discharged to save testing capacity. The hospitals were somewhat spared because everything else stopped, wards cleared of elective patients, people staying away from hospital and the protective effect of lock-down. 

The problem with the latest set of events is less likely to be the overall numbers as it was last time, but the insistence that the normal must carry on. The cases of serious COVID were stacking up, not huge but building steadily. I suspect this is going to continue and this time there will be no 'save the NHS' as people fatigue from social restrictions. As the number of asymptomatic cases rise in the community it only takes a few to go to nursing homes to cause absolute carnage.  There may well be fewer deaths than last time, as probably some of the more fragile population members have already died, as reflected by the below expected death rates in the last few months. However, I think this resurgence poses a bigger threat to healthcare infrastructure. 

I think the Island is lucky to have some semblance of normal life, if the borders are closed, it's probably a small price to pay. I'd say the Isle of Man has handled it really well and in the longer term, having kids back at school earlier, people back at work and resumption of the hospitality industry (other than tourism) will be protective. 

[NoTail]

3 minutes ago, benl said:

I'd love nothing more than for you to be right. However, in retrospect in A&Es in Liverpool we were seeing cases of covid mainly in young adults from late January/early February, but there was a bit of denial and no real plan on a national level. It was from March it got really messy and the number of cases at that time point was a huge under estimate, doctors were going through notes and binning swabs from people who were being discharged to save testing capacity. The hospitals were somewhat spared because everything else stopped, wards cleared of elective patients, people staying away from hospital and the protective effect of lock-down. 

The problem with the latest set of events is less likely to be the overall numbers as it was last time, but the insistence that the normal must carry on. The cases of serious COVID were stacking up, not huge but building steadily. I suspect this is going to continue and this time there will be no 'save the NHS' as people fatigue from social restrictions. As the number of asymptomatic cases rise in the community it only takes a few to go to nursing homes to cause absolute carnage.  There may well be fewer deaths than last time, as probably some of the more fragile population members have already died, as reflected by the below expected death rates in the last few months. However, I think this resurgence poses a bigger threat to healthcare infrastructure. 

I think the Island is lucky to have some semblance of normal life, if the borders are closed, it's probably a small price to pay. I'd say the Isle of Man has handled it really well and in the longer term, having kids back at school earlier, people back at work and resumption of the hospitality industry (other than tourism) will be protective. 

Interesting post. As I see it we are suffering from a lack of clear communication and statistics. Judging from posts above positions are being established and the people are looking for numbers to support their case, rather like the climate change dispute. I expect to go to the UK soon in my motorhome and will tour around for a number of weeks.  Being of a certain age I will avoid large towns and closed areas like pubs and restaurants.  Most of the time will be spent outdoors. This is a personal risk assessment and based on information known I am likely to be OK. I certainly feel I need a break from our environment after being cooped up for so long.