IOM Covid removing restrictions

[John Wright]

10 minutes ago, w_n_f said:

An average of about 62 per day or 31% of testing capacity. We could be testing 3 times more people with current capacity. 

We could, but the question then is “what is the need”. Need will change with the stage of the epidemic. If there’s a spike it will go up, and I understand that 200 is on running the test process twice a day, and that, at a push it could be run three times a day.

[Uhtred]

1 hour ago, WTF said:

miss Peel 2020 ?

You’d certainly want to miss her.

[w_n_f]

1 hour ago, John Wright said:

We could, but the question then is “what is the need”. Need will change with the stage of the epidemic. If there’s a spike it will go up, and I understand that 200 is on running the test process twice a day, and that, at a push it could be run three times a day.

Testing more people would provide more information about the prevalence of the virus in the general population. More information would allow the government to make better informed decisions. 

[PaulJ]

1 hour ago, Uhtred said:

You’d certainly want to miss her.

Pfft. Choosy. 

[Roger Mexico]

2 hours ago, wrighty said:

We’re moving out of cold and flu season. It’s only natural fewer people are needing tests. And, perhaps covid-19 is seasonal too, who knows? Perhaps why Aus, NZ and SA have done so well, so far. 

Maybe, though you would have expected flu etc to have declined earlier than May.  But we're certainly in peak hay fever, so I would expect quite a contribution from that - especially from those who are only occasional sufferers.  You would expect a big drop in all sorts of infectious diseases because of isolation in vulnerable populations, social distancing, increased hygiene and the rest, but allergies should flourish unconfined.

As for seasonality I suspect those countries have benefited from geographic isolation and moving fast enough before COVID-19 took hold.  Certainly some places in the tropics have been less fortunate.  But we'll have to wait to see what the patterns are.

[John Wright]

6 hours ago, w_n_f said:

Testing more people would provide more information about the prevalence of the virus in the general population. More information would allow the government to make better informed decisions. 

The problem is that antigen testing only tells us who has it now. Antibody testing, seems unreliable. That’s the one that will tell us who has ever had it - and produced antibodies.

[WTF]

12 hours ago, John Wright said:

We could, but the question then is “what is the need”. Need will change with the stage of the epidemic. If there’s a spike it will go up, and I understand that 200 is on running the test process twice a day, and that, at a push it could be run three times a day.

why don't we use the current excess testing capacity to test everybody that comes back into the island ,  the comis prisoners etc and those now expected to self isolate.  if you are clear you can end your self isolation early instead of being stuck at home for 2 weeks..        ?        it seems to be a lot easier to not bother testing and just keep people banged up for the sake of it.    

Edited May 12, 2020 by WTF

[Non-Believer]

Just watching an interesting article on BBC News about this, specifically the return to schools.

It's being suggested that research is finding that children and the young can be an unaffected vector for covid...they can catch it and carry it, suffer no symptoms themselves but transmit it to others.

There's a lot still to learn about this.

[Out of the blue]

33 minutes ago, Non-Believer said:

Just watching an interesting article on BBC News about this, specifically the return to schools.

It's being suggested that research is finding that children and the young can be an unaffected vector for covid...they can catch it and carry it, suffer no symptoms themselves but transmit it to others.

There's a lot still to learn about this.

Which contradicts what Dr Ewart said yesterday

[The Dog's Dangly Bits]

1 hour ago, WTF said:

why don't we use the current excess testing capacity to test everybody that comes back into the island ,  the comis prisoners etc and those now expected to self isolate.  if you are clear you can end your self isolation early instead of being stuck at home for 2 weeks..        ?        it seems to be a lot easier to not bother testing and just keep people banged up for the sake of it.    

I agree.  Not much has changed on the returning front.  Unless you have your own property where you can isolate and not come into contact with anyone else.

They could easily test all returnees.  Hold them until the results.  Then release to isolate and retest in a couple of days to double check.

[Beelzebub3]

35 minutes ago, The Dog's Dangly Bits said:

I agree.  Not much has changed on the returning front.  Unless you have your own property where you can isolate and not come into contact with anyone else.

They could easily test all returnees.  Hold them until the results.  Then release to isolate and retest in a couple of days to double check.

They have only 30 returners per week these test’s could be done easily, I think to be honest HQ has got a right hump with the repatriation lot, you could see at the briefing yesterday how his attitude changed when questioned, the look on his face spoke a thousand words.

[The Dog's Dangly Bits]

Yeh, well they've fucked up haven't they? 

It's embarrassing for him to admit it.  So they appear to offer an alternative but in reality it's still stupid and ill thought out.

The capacity is there to test and retest if needed.  The reality is most if not all will be covid free.   It is still completely at odds with the current process for people here already.  If you test positive you go home and self isolate.  If you live with people they have to self isolate too.

What's the difference here?

[P.K.]

29 minutes ago, The Dog's Dangly Bits said:

What's the difference here?

My thoughts on the expensive convoluted rehabilitation were seen to be doing something of a degree that gives reassurance.

As it only effects those who volunteer for it then fair enough.

[the stinking enigma]

I thought it was done with a bit of vindictiveness. They didn't want them back ballsing their numbers up and getting in the way of opening up.

[Roger Mexico]

2 hours ago, WTF said:

why don't we use the current excess testing capacity to test everybody that comes back into the island ,  the comis prisoners etc and those now expected to self isolate.  if you are clear you can end your self isolation early instead of being stuck at home for 2 weeks..        ?        it seems to be a lot easier to not bother testing and just keep people banged up for the sake of it.    

Because the test isn't completely accurate, particularly in picking up people who may have only just caught the virus[1] - which, given that travelling is where a lot of people do catch viruses, means that recent arrivals are likely to be in that state.  Someone could catch the virus getting here (especially if travelling through from outside the UK), test negative, and then infect other people as the disease progresses.  So some form of quarantine is a good idea.

Other countries quickly implemented this by getting returnees to self-isolate at home, monitored by random police checks and with pre-agreed return plans to make they had a suitable place to stay and support so they didn't need to go out.  If people were found to have broken the quarantine, hefty fines were imposed.  The Isle of Man closed its borders and then dithered about what to do for ages, before finally coming up with the ridiculous and expensive[2] Colditz Comis plan, which they are now admitting was unnecessary by allowing those currently there to self-isolate in the way they should have all along.

[1]  Other problems are that poor swabbing technique may mean some samples don't include the virus and that the virus may have migrated to the lungs and no longer the registering in the throat (though that is more about diagnosing what people who are clearly ill actually have).

[2]  Not just to those returning but to the taxpayer as well - though I have no doubt it was sold to the politicians as being self-financing.