IOM Covid removing restrictions

[P.K.]

3 hours ago, Neil Down said:

Eh??? I think you'll find the correct terminology is "stopover"

I thought you were a "leftover"....?

[Gladys]

29 minutes ago, benl said:

I'd love nothing more than for you to be right. However, in retrospect in A&Es in Liverpool we were seeing cases of covid mainly in young adults from late January/early February, but there was a bit of denial and no real plan on a national level. It was from March it got really messy and the number of cases at that time point was a huge under estimate, doctors were going through notes and binning swabs from people who were being discharged to save testing capacity. The hospitals were somewhat spared because everything else stopped, wards cleared of elective patients, people staying away from hospital and the protective effect of lock-down. 

The problem with the latest set of events is less likely to be the overall numbers as it was last time, but the insistence that the normal must carry on. The cases of serious COVID were stacking up, not huge but building steadily. I suspect this is going to continue and this time there will be no 'save the NHS' as people fatigue from social restrictions. As the number of asymptomatic cases rise in the community it only takes a few to go to nursing homes to cause absolute carnage.  There may well be fewer deaths than last time, as probably some of the more fragile population members have already died, as reflected by the below expected death rates in the last few months. However, I think this resurgence poses a bigger threat to healthcare infrastructure. 

I think the Island is lucky to have some semblance of normal life, if the borders are closed, it's probably a small price to pay. I'd say the Isle of Man has handled it really well and in the longer term, having kids back at school earlier, people back at work and resumption of the hospitality industry (other than tourism) will be protective. 

Thank you Ben.  I think the big issue is for meaningful, properly interpreted statistics or none at all. For example, is a positive, asymptomatic test really a case? What is the percentage of CV deaths against other causes?  Is the cause of death correctly attributed?  

Tragic as it is, is it really right to isolate people in care homes who are nearing the end of their life, to be denied family but still yield to the inevitable from whatever cause? 

My biggest fear during lockdown was that my Mum would pass away having had no family visitors for months.   How is that humane in any sense of the word?  As it happens, she did pass away after lockdown and I was able to be with her.  That was the right end for her and for us.

On the other hand, a dear friend in the UK died during lockdown, no family visits, no goodbyes, but she still passed away.  I attended the funeral by Internet and each of the family who gave a eulogy ended in their sadness that they had not seen her, hadn't said goodbye and couldn't be with her in her last moments.

That was so sad, but at least she hadn't died from CV, I suppose.  But she had died alone. 

[P.K.]

2 minutes ago, Gladys said:

Thank you Ben.  I think the big issue is for meaningful, properly interpreted statistics or none at all. For example, is a positive, asymptomatic test really a case? What is the percentage of CV deaths against other causes?  Is the cause of death correctly attributed?  

As I understand it asymptomatic folks can still spread the virus.

So they must be a positive statistic.

Mind you Bozo et al will try any wizard wheeze they can to reduce the stats.

[benl]

6 minutes ago, Gladys said:

Thank you Ben.  I think the big issue is for meaningful, properly interpreted statistics or none at all. For example, is a positive, asymptomatic test really a case? What is the percentage of CV deaths against other causes?  Is the cause of death correctly attributed?  

Tragic as it is, is it really right to isolate people in care homes who are nearing the end of their life, to be denied family but still yield to the inevitable from whatever cause? 

My biggest fear during lockdown was that my Mum would pass away having had no family visitors for months.   How is that humane in any sense of the word?  As it happens, she did pass away after lockdown and I was able to be with her.  That was the right end for her and for us.

On the other hand, a dear friend in the UK died during lockdown, no family visits, no goodbyes, but she still passed away.  I attended the funeral by Internet and each of the family who gave a eulogy ended in their sadness that they had not seen her, hadn't said goodbye and couldn't be with her in her last moments.

That was so sad, but at least she hadn't died from CV, I suppose.  But she had died alone. 

I think the problem with statistics is without knowing the method and the analysis, they are not quite meaningless but very difficult to make sense of. In the defence of epidemiologists, communicating this stuff is an unimaginable task. Case definitions are nothing more than a pre set criteria, i.e postive swab, or clinical symptoms. I think i't just the swabs and antibodies being reported. My slightly educated guess is all cases are under reported. The swab that goes into your mouth is only about 68% sensitive (IIRC) and there have been quite a few people who clinically have it, but there test is negative. Also, many just choose to self-isolate and don't bother with the faff of a test. Death are even harder, I think the UK changed the goal posts to 'within 28 days of positive test'. Death certification has always been a bit crap if you get a blood clot or pneumonia after having had covid, I don't think it counts, so again probably under estimated. 

I'm sorry to hear about your family and friends, I really don't know what the right answer is. I think a realistic and discussion with family members and whatever means most to them should be respected, but it's harder when other care home residents could be put at risk. I would agree it's not humane, we were informing families their loved one had died via telephone, it's horrific from every angle. I understand the rationale from a population point of view but I can only imagine how it would feel to be that family member. I think hospitals are being more realistic now and rules are being flexed a lot more but still, some people don't want to come to hospital because they wont see their loved ones. 

[TheTeapot]

26 minutes ago, Gladys said:

, is a positive, asymptomatic test really a case? 

 

Well, the test is to whether you have the Sars-Cov-2 virus, so yes. It doesn't test to see if you've developed the disease Covid-19. 

[Gladys]

12 minutes ago, benl said:

I think the problem with statistics is without knowing the method and the analysis, they are not quite meaningless but very difficult to make sense of. In the defence of epidemiologists, communicating this stuff is an unimaginable task. Case definitions are nothing more than a pre set criteria, i.e postive swab, or clinical symptoms. I think i't just the swabs and antibodies being reported. My slightly educated guess is all cases are under reported. The swab that goes into your mouth is only about 68% sensitive (IIRC) and there have been quite a few people who clinically have it, but there test is negative. Also, many just choose to self-isolate and don't bother with the faff of a test. Death are even harder, I think the UK changed the goal posts to 'within 28 days of positive test'. Death certification has always been a bit crap if you get a blood clot or pneumonia after having had covid, I don't think it counts, so again probably under estimated. 

I'm sorry to hear about your family and friends, I really don't know what the right answer is. I think a realistic and discussion with family members and whatever means most to them should be respected, but it's harder when other care home residents could be put at risk. I would agree it's not humane, we were informing families their loved one had died via telephone, it's horrific from every angle. I understand the rationale from a population point of view but I can only imagine how it would feel to be that family member. I think hospitals are being more realistic now and rules are being flexed a lot more but still, some people don't want to come to hospital because they wont see their loved ones. 

Thanks, Ben, I cannot imagine what it is like on the front line, but I do want to really understand the risk and be able to assess that against my own expectations or risk appetite. 

The locking up of the elderly is a case in point.  When this happened here, my first thought was what would Mum prefer, a month alive seeing her family,  or six months without, but with the same outcome?  Family have had no input to this, just a blanket measure.  I do understand the risk and would never have wanted to jeopardise either Mum's health or anyone else in the home, but you have to question what is humane and what is just convenient handling.

 

[Banker]

6 hours ago, Gladys said:

Thanks, Ben, I cannot imagine what it is like on the front line, but I do want to really understand the risk and be able to assess that against my own expectations or risk appetite. 

The locking up of the elderly is a case in point.  When this happened here, my first thought was what would Mum prefer, a month alive seeing her family,  or six months without, but with the same outcome?  Family have had no input to this, just a blanket measure.  I do understand the risk and would never have wanted to jeopardise either Mum's health or anyone else in the home, but you have to question what is humane and what is just convenient handling.

 

Yes there have been horror stories of people dying alone every where.

a friend’s mother was dying in a care home here during Ashys lockdown of health and they were not allowed to visit her.

eventually after much pleading one son at a time was allowed to visit at the end for a brief spell but none of her sisters or grandchildren.

[Neil Down]

8 hours ago, benl said:

I'd love nothing more than for you to be right. However, in retrospect in A&Es in Liverpool we were seeing cases of covid mainly in young adults from late January/early February, but there was a bit of denial and no real plan on a national level. It was from March it got really messy and the number of cases at that time point was a huge under estimate, doctors were going through notes and binning swabs from people who were being discharged to save testing capacity. The hospitals were somewhat spared because everything else stopped, wards cleared of elective patients, people staying away from hospital and the protective effect of lock-down. 

The problem with the latest set of events is less likely to be the overall numbers as it was last time, but the insistence that the normal must carry on. The cases of serious COVID were stacking up, not huge but building steadily. I suspect this is going to continue and this time there will be no 'save the NHS' as people fatigue from social restrictions. As the number of asymptomatic cases rise in the community it only takes a few to go to nursing homes to cause absolute carnage.  There may well be fewer deaths than last time, as probably some of the more fragile population members have already died, as reflected by the below expected death rates in the last few months. However, I think this resurgence poses a bigger threat to healthcare infrastructure. 

I think the Island is lucky to have some semblance of normal life, if the borders are closed, it's probably a small price to pay. I'd say the Isle of Man has handled it really well and in the longer term, having kids back at school earlier, people back at work and resumption of the hospitality industry (other than tourism) will be protective. 

No surprise SoS is the only confused one then... 

Good post benl

[Banker]

Seems like every hotel up for sale, Chris Thomas was on radio saying massive economic problems in lots of sectors building up which may hit in winter months 

http://www.iomtoday.co.im/article.cfm?id=57747&headline=Big hotels for sale&sectionIs=news&searchyear=2020&cat=Business&fbclid=IwAR2Mdk41t9pyQQXKG8jyvxVnloW0BMk9sqRIcDitFhv8Q2cTXft88h8LPnk

[thesultanofsheight]

24 minutes ago, Neil Down said:

No surprise SoS is the only confused one then... 

Good post benl

I’m not confused by anything at all. Currently 0:0037 of UK residents (under 900 people) are in hospital due to covid-19 and nearly 10,000,000 people (15% of the UK population and currently over 30% of the UKs working population) are unemployed or on state income support because of covid-19. The cure is by far worse than the disease and will last a lot longer for the 10,000,000 now affected by a totally flawed covid response. 

Edited September 17, 2020 by thesultanofsheight

[Neil Down]

27 minutes ago, Banker said:

Seems like every hotel up for sale, Chris Thomas was on radio saying massive economic problems in lots of sectors building up which may hit in winter months 

http://www.iomtoday.co.im/article.cfm?id=57747&headline=Big hotels for sale&sectionIs=news&searchyear=2020&cat=Business&fbclid=IwAR2Mdk41t9pyQQXKG8jyvxVnloW0BMk9sqRIcDitFhv8Q2cTXft88h8LPnk

Handy excuse for people to blame Covid for this Banker. It won't have helped but it is not the primary reason for selling up

[thesultanofsheight]

Yeah I’m sure they really aren’t selling because they’ve got no chance of any selling rooms to any tourists until at lest next summer because the island is shut down. It’s all just a strange coincidence. 

Edited September 17, 2020 by thesultanofsheight

[Apple]

To be honest I can't blame people now for selling. The impact of Covid was grossly underestimated and arrogantly, in the beginning, there was a sense that it would not be as serious as it has turned out to be. And there is still some way to go as we keep hearing.

It has been drummed into people that "we can not go back", that there will be "a new normal" , this "changes everything" etc. The political rhetoric has turned the world on it's head and the total disruption to our lives has created a sense Oh Well, what's the point of staying as we are anymore. 

 

 

[Out of the blue]

7 minutes ago, Apple said:

To be honest I can't blame people now for selling. The impact of Covid was grossly underestimated and arrogantly, in the beginning, there was a sense that it would not be as serious as it has turned out to be. And there is still some way to go as we keep hearing.

It has been drummed into people that "we can not go back", that there will be "a new normal" , this "changes everything" etc. The political rhetoric has turned the world on it's head and the total disruption to our lives has created a sense Oh Well, what's the point of staying as we are anymore. 

 

 

Unless they need to sell, now is a poor time to put your hotel on the market, especially as a going concern. No buyer is going to second guess the future direction of the island’s hospitality industry, let alone make such a large investment in it. There will always be interest, but by investors looking at the locality and they will not be interested in paying for the ‘goodwill’ and will want a good deal. If I owned one of these hotels I would be sitting it out if possible to see how all of this pans out. I really feel for them.

[P.K.]

1 hour ago, thesultanofsheight said:

I’m not confused by anything at all. Currently 0:0037 of UK residents (under 900 people) are in hospital due to covid-19 and nearly 10,000,000 people (15% of the UK population and currently over 30% of the UKs working population) are unemployed or on state income support because of covid-19. The cure is by far worse than the disease and will last a lot longer for the 10,000,000 now affected by a totally flawed covid response. 

Unlike most of Europe Sweden did not lock down.

The result was way more excess deaths than their Scandawegian neighbours for little if any economic gain.

In other words reality trashes your "argument".

Sweden’s grim Covid-19 result: More death and nearly equal economic damage

 

Ever since the coronavirus emerged in Europe, Sweden has captured international attention by conducting an unorthodox, open-air experiment. It has allowed the world to examine what happens in a pandemic when a government allows life to carry on largely unhindered.

This is what has happened: Not only have thousands more people died than in neighbouring countries that imposed lockdowns, but Sweden’s economy has fared little better. “They literally gained nothing,” said Jacob F. Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.

“It’s a self-inflicted wound, and they have no economic gains.” 

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/health-family/sweden-s-grim-covid-19-result-more-death-and-nearly-equal-economic-damage-1.4300102

I never thought I'd say this but I'm glad Mr Quayle is in charge and not some misguided, ill-informed zealot like you...