Out of the blue Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 1 hour ago, P.K. said: Why call into question the PHE figures? I wasn’t, I was being facetious. My source was PHE but I was being accused of referencing fake news. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Mexico Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 1 hour ago, wrighty said: I see the UK scientific advisers are using an IFR of 0.4% in their estimates of covid fatality https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54234084 50000 cases per day resulting in 200 deaths per day is the prediction. An IFR of 0.4% seems a bit on the optimistic side, most other studies seem to be a bit higher (though usually well under 1%). Of course deriving the number of actual infections (which is what is used for the IFR) from the number of cases, ie tested infections, is the difficult bit, especially if the testing infrastructure collapses. Deaths are probably going to be even more lagging as an indicator than they were in the first wave. The last ICNARC figures showed a median of 9 days in ICU before death with a very wide IQR of 5-16. As these were based on the whole of the pandemic and probably improvements in treatment might mean that such stays will be even longer (because there is more that can be done to help stop people dying). Certainly the very high ICU stay figures for Covid-19 survivors (median 12, IQR 5-28) may be an underestimate for future stays. There's the 'downside' that being able to save more people may mean that ICUs fill up quicker and become blocked for longer and on lower levels of infection. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utah 01 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 1 hour ago, thesultanofsheight said: That seems to be the life some people supporting all this aspire to Aspire? I'd guess some of our lock'em-down gang are already, if not almost, there; safe in their pressure-filtered air cocoons with tin-foil hats firmly in place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 2 hours ago, wrighty said: I see the UK scientific advisers are using an IFR of 0.4% in their estimates of covid fatality https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54234084 50000 cases per day resulting in 200 deaths per day is the prediction. Or is it going to be over 5000 PK? I would say that's impossible to predict. Health professionals have learned a lot about how to deal with Covid patients and there are now treatments that will definitely lower the fatality rate. By how much we'll just have to wait and see... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 Watched the Pinky and Perky briefing at 11:00. No Bozo which was a surprise until I realised that only using people who tell it like it is and who can be trusted gives a much better chance of actually getting the message across. Personally I thought they did well. They also said a bit about the various treatments in the pipeline which, minus the idiotic optimism, made a lot of sense. Basically keep at it because a vaccine may not be too far away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrighty Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3487 BMJ letter from a public health professor suggesting encouraging youngsters get covid to generate herd immunity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gladys Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 3 hours ago, Flyingfemme said: Weeks ago the UK government death stats showed well over 40,000 deaths from Covid-19. Today they show less than 30,000. So the figures have already been "massaged". One wonders what they really are. In the past week 2 people under 60 have died of this disease - no comments as to their co-morbidities. Apparently 2019 was a year of very few deaths from many of the "expected" causes and left a lot of "elderly" people on the planet who had not been expected to still be here...........they form a large part of those "excess deaths". Death rates have been falling steadily since 1980 and are still well below those between 1950-1970. See here UK death rates The so-called 'dry tinder'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 25 minutes ago, wrighty said: https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3487 BMJ letter from a public health professor suggesting encouraging youngsters get covid to generate herd immunity. Well I guess the 350 students going to university will be a start. However after Alex Alison said we would get Manx students back home if needed in a lockdown someone from Onchan messaged Programme to say they shouldn’t be allowed home at Xmas and should be forced to stay away. this type of extreme view is getting worse with various media stories and the ones being most vociferous are those who are retired and/or have all family on Island 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utah 01 Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Banker said: ones being most vociferous are those who are retired and/or have all family on Island A point I made several weeks ago. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 35 minutes ago, wrighty said: https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3487 BMJ letter from a public health professor suggesting encouraging youngsters get covid to generate herd immunity. As they have shown in the UK they're stupid enough not to require any encouragement.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcousticallyChallenged Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 Well, someone else lost the gamble today: https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/one-new-active-case-of-coronavirus-on-island/ I'd be interested to hear what proportion of returnees are bothering with the 7 day test. If you've got an ample garden and can work from home, it doesn't necessarily seem worth the risk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 14 minutes ago, Banker said: This type of extreme view is getting worse with various media stories and the ones being most vociferous are those who are retired and/or have all family on Island "Old age and treachery will always overcome youth and ability..." Keeping the borders as they are can in no way be described as an "extreme view". It's just commonsense.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Hedgehog Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 One more person wishing they hadn't stumped up fifty quid for a test today then.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, Dave Hedgehog said: One more person wishing they hadn't stumped up fifty quid for a test today then.... We should all be glad they did though. How much longer before it becomes compulsory...? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barlow Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Dave Hedgehog said: One more person wishing they hadn't stumped up fifty quid for a test today then.... Looking at the Manx Radio news bulletin, it says "more to follow" Edited September 21, 2020 by Barlow 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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